Hillary Clinton

kstewart33

(6,551 posts) Mon Apr 25, 2016, 11:52 AM Apr 2016

Here are the latest predictions from 538.com.

As of this morning. Clinton's probabilities of winning each state:

1. Pennsylvania: 98%.(At stake: 189 delegates).

2. Maryland: 99%. (At stake: 95 delegates).

3. Connecticut: 76%. (At stake: 55 delegates). Clinton's decline is due to the PPP poll out today that has Clinton ahead by 2 points (48% to 46%). A Quinnipiac poll a week ago had her up by 9 points.

4. Rhode Island: 39%. (At stake: 24 delegates). The decline in her probability is due to the PPP poll out today that has Sanders at 49% and Clinton at 45%. This contradicts the Brown University poll released this weekend where Clinton was leading by 9% (49% to 40%). The PPP has a stronger reputation and so it was weighted more in Silver's calculation.

5. There is no prediction for Delaware (no polls). At stake: 21 delegates.

I expect that there will be a final set of predictions this evening. I'll post those.

12 replies

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Here are the latest predictions from 538.com. (Original Post) kstewart33 Apr 2016 OP

thank you for this, kstewart~ Cha Apr 2016 #1

You're very welcome. kstewart33 Apr 2016 #7

did he factor in the purged voters and 66% fewer polling places? FourScore Apr 2016 #2

That's an excellent point. kstewart33 Apr 2016 #5

Between PPP tending to favor Bernie, and Benchmark's breakdown... CrowCityDem Apr 2016 #3

So Hillary loses maybe 2 delegate votes in Rhode Island. nt LiberalFighter Apr 2016 #4

Yep. kstewart33 Apr 2016 #6

Getting closer, awaiting the results. Thinkingabout Apr 2016 #8

Is it Tuesday evening yet? :) SharonClark Apr 2016 #9

Does anyone think they have a good guess on total delegates??? Walk away Apr 2016 #10

Any BS win gives him and the Corporate Media a new narrative. Damn! I want this to be over. Liberal_Stalwart71 Apr 2016 #11

Me too. wisteria Apr 2016 #12

Cha

(297,378 posts)

1. thank you for this, kstewart~

Reply to kstewart33 (Original post)

Mon Apr 25, 2016, 12:00 PM

Apr 2016

kstewart33

(6,551 posts)

7. You're very welcome.

Reply to Cha (Reply #1)

Mon Apr 25, 2016, 12:15 PM

Apr 2016

FourScore

(9,704 posts)

2. did he factor in the purged voters and 66% fewer polling places?

Reply to kstewart33 (Original post)

Mon Apr 25, 2016, 12:02 PM

Apr 2016

Pretty sure that bumps it to 100%.

kstewart33

(6,551 posts)

5. That's an excellent point.

Reply to FourScore (Reply #2)

Mon Apr 25, 2016, 12:12 PM

Apr 2016

And I wonder about the effect of the locations of the 1/3 polling places that are left.

CrowCityDem

(2,348 posts)

3. Between PPP tending to favor Bernie, and Benchmark's breakdown...

Reply to kstewart33 (Original post)

Mon Apr 25, 2016, 12:03 PM

Apr 2016

I think it's fair to say that PA and MD are locks. PA probably 10-12, and MD 20+.

DE is unknown, but I would lean +10.

CT is closer, but I would still say +5 at least.

RI is the toss-up, and it wouldn't surprise me if it went the other way by 2.

Whatever the numbers, Bernie loses significantly more ground, and there's not enough delegates left to even think about catching up.