Pennsylvania: This state represents the mother lode of delegates for April 26th voting. It has 189 delegates available, nearly as many as the 195 delegates spread across the other four states. It’s a closed primary, which means the polls are likely to be accurate. The final average of Pennsylvania polls is pegging Hillary’s lead in the state at 16.9%. It’s been my observation that when she holds a final average polling lead in the teens in a closed primary state, she tends to finish slightly above that average. So my final prediction is that Hillary Clinton will win Pennsylvania by 18%. That would give Hillary roughly 111 delegates and Bernie roughly 78 delegates, although keep in mind there is never quite a straight line from percentage of votes to percentage of delegates.

Maryland: This the consolation prize for the day, mathematically speaking. Maryland has 95 delegates, and as is the case with all states, its democratic delegates are awarded proportionally. The final average of polls has Hillary up by 24%. In closed primaries where her lead has been in the twenties, it’s been less consistent but she’s tended to indeed win by a number in the twenties. So my admittedly nonspecific final prediction is that Hillary will win Maryland by somewhere between 20% and 29%. That would break down to perhaps 59 delegates for Hillary and 36 for Bernie.

Connecticut: The current polls say Hillary leads the state by an average of 5.6%. In closed primaries where Hillary’s lead is in the single digits, she’s tended to finish slightly below it. So my prediction is that Hillary wins Connecticut by 5%, giving her 29 delegates and Bernie 26 delegates.

Delaware: Late-arriving polls say Hillary is up by an average of 7.5%. I’m going to once again predict that Hillary wins the state by 5%. With that kind of tight margin and a low delegate count to begin with, it could turn out that Hillary ends up with eleven delegates and Bernie ends up with ten. If he won by a small margin, that would flip.

Rhode Island: The only poll in this state, released two days ago, has Hillary up by 9%. Because Rhode Island is the only semi-open primary of the day, I’m going to predict that Hillary wins by something much smaller, perhaps by 3%. Because there are an even number of delegates, they could be split evenly, twelve to twelve. Hillary fans won’t like it, but it’s the same tiny-delegate math that allowed her to get half the delegates in Wyoming when Bernie won the popular vote. However is she won by something closer to 9%, she might indeed get thirteen delegates here.