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Democrats 2016: Not Feeling the Bern Despite big crowds, Sanders remains a huge underdog to Clinton (Original Post) hrmjustin Jul 2015 OP
Hillary has a followering though she may not be pulling in big crowds does not mean she will lose by Thinkingabout Jul 2015 #1
The huge crowds thing is being overblown by the press to make her look bad. hrmjustin Jul 2015 #3
'Tis true, I know Hillary's record and where she stnds on the issues, I know her work record, Thinkingabout Jul 2015 #11
A group of friends of mine went to the Sanders thing up in Maine. MADem Jul 2015 #26
Kick & Recommended. William769 Jul 2015 #2
Glad to see you. hrmjustin Jul 2015 #4
Thanks Justin. William769 Jul 2015 #6
Hey! Cool! ismnotwasm Jul 2015 #16
Yes, good to see you, William! Cha Jul 2015 #18
Welcome back. n/t murielm99 Jul 2015 #23
Thanks all. William769 Jul 2015 #24
K & R Iliyah Jul 2015 #5
So they list Hillary's age as a disadvantage Lisa D Jul 2015 #7
She's a woman, don't you know OKNancy Jul 2015 #9
And remember, women's life expectancy is longer, huh, how does this work. Thinkingabout Jul 2015 #12
Go team! shenmue Jul 2015 #8
Hillary Clinton is the only Democratic candidate who could be Texas in play Gothmog Jul 2015 #10
Nice explanation of exactly 'where we are' here. yallerdawg Jul 2015 #13
+1. If crowd size mattered, we might be saying Vice President Sarah Palin right now. Tarheel_Dem Jul 2015 #14
It's really an indictment that enrages BS supporters. yallerdawg Jul 2015 #15
"Nonwhite versus white voters" from your link, Justin Cha Jul 2015 #17
I've been pointing out for weeks (months?) to Sanders supporters who brag about.... George II Jul 2015 #19
I know you have, George.. I've been seeing it. This race is for the Presidency.. not just Cha Jul 2015 #20
Imagine Barack Obama and Bill Clinton out campaigning for Hillary Clinton? George II Jul 2015 #21
Yes, I can imagine it! Bill, was great at the Dem Convention.. believe that was the 2012 one. :) Cha Jul 2015 #22
kicking. hrmjustin Jul 2015 #25
It was an interesting article...and gave me some insight into crowd size vs delegates Sheepshank Jul 2015 #27

Thinkingabout

(30,058 posts)
1. Hillary has a followering though she may not be pulling in big crowds does not mean she will lose by
Thu Jul 9, 2015, 10:01 AM
Jul 2015

Any means.

Thinkingabout

(30,058 posts)
11. 'Tis true, I know Hillary's record and where she stnds on the issues, I know her work record,
Thu Jul 9, 2015, 11:46 AM
Jul 2015

I don't need to attend a rally to know this. I enjoy seeing news about her speeches and where she is going, my support goes to Hillary.

MADem

(135,425 posts)
26. A group of friends of mine went to the Sanders thing up in Maine.
Fri Jul 10, 2015, 09:00 AM
Jul 2015

They have no intention of voting for him--they thought it would be a fun experience, and they had a restaurant in mind as well.

I've gone to rallies of people I'd be unlikely to vote for, too.

If Trump was speaking nearby, I'd bring a camera and try for a good spot--doesn't mean I think he's anything but a massive ass, though.

That said, Bernie says some positive things. He will not get my primary vote, but I don't think he is a 'bad' guy and he does seem to care about the working stiffs. My major disconnect with him is that he has no ability--and hasn't indicated any clue--as to how he will persuade a Congress, where he worked as an independent, caucusing with the Democrats but NOT doing any of the gritty administrative legwork expected of most in the caucus--to do his bidding, should he become POTUS.

I just wonder how well he can "work a crowd" when that crowd consists of legislators with their own agendas. It's not like he's ever whipped votes, made trades, cut deals, or done any of the vote counting work in the Democratic caucus, because he's not one of them, he's never held a peer position in the House or Senate party structure--he only has sworn to vote with them on procedural matters, not on legislation. He's not part of the "Party Discipline" set (and they can muster that discipline if it means enough) in that regard.

I honestly don't think he has the political persuasive chops for that kind of effort--he'd need a wingman who knew the Hill really well (it's why Cheney made Bush pick him).

Lisa D

(1,532 posts)
7. So they list Hillary's age as a disadvantage
Thu Jul 9, 2015, 10:28 AM
Jul 2015

but not Bernie's age?

Interesting. I don't think age should be an issue, but since he is actually older than Hillary, I'm baffled by the omission.

Overall, a good article and interesting analysis.

Go Hillary!

yallerdawg

(16,104 posts)
13. Nice explanation of exactly 'where we are' here.
Thu Jul 9, 2015, 12:14 PM
Jul 2015
At the end of the day, the crowd sizes don’t indicate that Sanders will win — far from it — but the one takeaway from them is that the left wing of the Democratic Party wants to entertain the idea of a Clinton-less future, and Sanders is the candidate who has received the left’s energy at this point. As he is to the left of the other Democratic candidates not named Clinton, he’s become a natural focal point for frustration with Clinton’s ties to Wall Street, her center-left outlook, and her foreign policy past (e.g., her Iraq War vote).

I would also suggest polls show most left-wing liberals still support Hillary. Hillary supporters are just more pragmatic and do not want to jeopardize a Democratic presidential victory in 2016, and don't support 'someone else' for the reasons outlined in the article.

Plus, there are a lot of idealisms involved in supporting Hillary, including a plainly historical vote!

Tarheel_Dem

(31,234 posts)
14. +1. If crowd size mattered, we might be saying Vice President Sarah Palin right now.
Thu Jul 9, 2015, 12:42 PM
Jul 2015
However, it’s important to remember that crowd size fundamentally doesn’t matter much. Comparisons between how large one candidate’s crowd is compared to another’s are ripe for misunderstanding. Just think back to 2012, when press reports and GOP partisans frequently mentioned the large numbers that Mitt Romney was drawing on the campaign trail. Did this end up mattering? Obama won the popular vote by about 5 million votes. The history of “crowdsmanship” is long, and as Louisiana politico Robert Mann noted back in 2012, full of anecdotal evidence that wound up meaning nothing.


Consider the demographics of Denver, Madison, Minneapolis, and Portland: Of those four, only the Mile High City is less than 60% white (53%), and of the 50 biggest cities in the United States, Denver and Minneapolis are among the 18 that are majority non-Hispanic white. Portland is the biggest city in Maine, over 80% white, and located in the Pine Tree State’s most liberal area, Cumberland County. Madison is three-fourths white and an über-liberal university city — it’s no surprise so many people showed up to see Sanders there. In fact, many college towns are going to be among the most receptive to Sanders’ campaign message. Take Charlottesville, VA, for example. One of the Crystal Ball’s writers tried to scout out Sanders when he came to the home of the University of Virginia in May, but the venue only held about 200-300 people and was packed to fire-code capacity by the time he arrived at the front of a long line. Nonetheless, Sanders smartly engaged the many who couldn’t get inside with an impromptu talk.


I've said it before, and I'll say it again. Bernie is following the trail of Thom Hartmann & Ed Schultz's core audiences. I have a feeling that BS' popularity is directly tied to the markets where those two are most listened to.

yallerdawg

(16,104 posts)
15. It's really an indictment that enrages BS supporters.
Thu Jul 9, 2015, 12:48 PM
Jul 2015
Sanders cannot begin to match Clinton’s strong support among minorities; it’s no accident that his break-out states are heavily white Iowa and New Hampshire. Sanders is used to appealing to Vermont’s liberal and very white electorate.

According to the most recent Census Bureau estimates, Vermont has the second-largest percentage of non-Hispanic whites in the country, behind only neighboring Maine. Notably, New Hampshire and Iowa rank fourth and sixth, respectively. Demographically, the Democratic electorates in the first two primary or caucus states just happen to look a lot like Sanders’ home state. It also doesn’t hurt Sanders that New Hampshire is next door, reducing the costs of visiting the first-in-the-nation primary state.

Cha

(297,304 posts)
17. "Nonwhite versus white voters" from your link, Justin
Thu Jul 9, 2015, 10:21 PM
Jul 2015
Sanders cannot begin to match Clinton’s strong support among minorities; it’s no accident that his break-out states are heavily white Iowa and New Hampshire. Sanders is used to appealing to Vermont’s liberal and very white electorate.

According to the most recent Census Bureau estimates, Vermont has the second-largest percentage of non-Hispanic whites in the country, behind only neighboring Maine. Notably, New Hampshire and Iowa rank fourth and sixth, respectively. Demographically, the Democratic electorates in the first two primary or caucus states just happen to look a lot like Sanders’ home state. It also doesn’t hurt Sanders that New Hampshire is next door, reducing the costs of visiting the first-in-the-nation primary state.

Meanwhile, Clinton has a lifetime of experience appealing to African American and Hispanic voters. Though blacks strayed to Barack Obama in 2008, both the African-American leadership and rank-and-file seem solidly back in the Clinton camp for 2016. The most recent national polls peg Clinton’s support among white Democrats in the low-to-mid 50s, while her support among blacks is in the 60s. Meanwhile, Sanders may be in double-digits nationally now, but he’s not there with African Americans. While it’s true that Clinton did lead with blacks nationally this time eight years ago, her edge was smaller: One national Pew poll showed her up 47% to 34% with blacks over Obama in late July 2007. That’s a smaller lead than she has now, and obviously Obama always had great potential among black voters. There’s not much indication Sanders can be anywhere near as mighty a force in the black community.


Thank you.

George II

(67,782 posts)
19. I've been pointing out for weeks (months?) to Sanders supporters who brag about....
Thu Jul 9, 2015, 10:39 PM
Jul 2015

...a "surge" in New Hampshire that his home state shares a 200 mile border with NH and their demographics are almost identical, including a 95% white electorate (and Iowa isn't much different!). They have to be familiar with Sanders in NH if they've been paying attention.

Also, regarding Clinton's 2007/2008 lead with blacks nationally, she was up against a charismatic young black man from Chicago, not a white man from Burlington.

My feeling is that the New Hampshire primary (and Vermont, of course) is his best chance at a victory. If things go the way I think they will, the nomination should be wrapped up very early next year.

By the way, even in Florida (won't get into the obvious demographics there!) where Sanders should have a big following, he's still about 40% behind Clinton.

Cha

(297,304 posts)
20. I know you have, George.. I've been seeing it. This race is for the Presidency.. not just
Thu Jul 9, 2015, 11:06 PM
Jul 2015

certain sections.. the whole Country.

Hillary has a long history of supporting minorities and has earned their overwhelming support now.

Right.. there's no Obama in the race now but he will be helping whomever the Dem nom is and I think it's going to be Hillary!

George II

(67,782 posts)
21. Imagine Barack Obama and Bill Clinton out campaigning for Hillary Clinton?
Thu Jul 9, 2015, 11:29 PM
Jul 2015

That would be awesome, and probably worth a few million votes.

Cha

(297,304 posts)
22. Yes, I can imagine it! Bill, was great at the Dem Convention.. believe that was the 2012 one. :)
Thu Jul 9, 2015, 11:31 PM
Jul 2015
 

Sheepshank

(12,504 posts)
27. It was an interesting article...and gave me some insight into crowd size vs delegates
Fri Jul 10, 2015, 04:35 PM
Jul 2015

I had seen several posts here suggesting the crowd size is not indicative of delegate votes...I learned something new. Perhpas some of the delegates will be swayed by crowd size, but it seems unlikley...especially since those crowds were not representative of a broader spectrum of voters, but more indicative of a narrow pro Bernie demographic.

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