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Iamaartist

(3,300 posts)
Tue Apr 26, 2016, 10:56 AM Apr 2016

Polls Say Bernie Is More Electable Than Hillary. Don’t Believe Them.

Cant believe this today.... she will win... time for you to go home maybe Trump and you Bernie can fly home on his big plane........one way.....

Nothing will take us down today because we are strong and together until the end...

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2016/04/polls_say_bernie_is_more_electable_than_hillary_don_t_believe_them.html


Trailing in the Democratic presidential race, Bernie Sanders has one last gambit. He wants to persuade the party’s superdelegates—officeholders, luminaries, and party officials who can vote at the convention—that he’s the Democrats’ best hope to win the general election. Never mind that Hillary Clinton has won more votes and elected delegates. “There are a lot of delegates out there who are looking at the general matchup,” Sanders argued Sunday on CNN. “And what they’re seeing in polls is that Bernie Sanders is running a lot stronger against Donald Trump than is Hillary Clinton.”
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Cary

(11,746 posts)
1. Thanks. Nice article.
Tue Apr 26, 2016, 11:05 AM
Apr 2016

Of course it's moot at this point. Sanders is done. But it's a good summary of why emoprog discord and discontent is pure b.s.

Walk away

(9,494 posts)
2. If Donald Trump ever turned to Bernie he would annihilate him on the spot.
Tue Apr 26, 2016, 11:05 AM
Apr 2016

No one in the Democratic party ever mentions Sanders negatively. They want to keep the party together. If Trump decides to accuse Bernie on his Castro friendly and Moscow filled past and then pulls the curtain back on his non-record, Bernie would be toast!

Squinch

(50,955 posts)
3. This. Sanders has not been touched by the press because they wanted a horse race on the D
Tue Apr 26, 2016, 11:07 AM
Apr 2016

side. Their ratings required it.

Gothmog

(145,293 posts)
17. Democrats would be insane to nominate Sanders
Tue Apr 26, 2016, 02:36 PM
Apr 2016

Trump would have a very easy time with Sanders. Dana Milbank has some good comments on general election match up polls https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/democrats-would-be-insane-to-nominate-bernie-sanders/2016/01/26/0590e624-c472-11e5-a4aa-f25866ba0dc6_story.html?hpid=hp_opinions-for-wide-side_opinion-card-a%3Ahomepage%2Fstory

Sanders and his supporters boast of polls showing him, on average, matching up slightly better against Trump than Clinton does. But those matchups are misleading: Opponents have been attacking and defining Clinton for a quarter- century, but nobody has really gone to work yet on demonizing Sanders.

Watching Sanders at Monday night’s Democratic presidential forum in Des Moines, I imagined how Trump — or another Republican nominee — would disembowel the relatively unknown Vermonter.


The first questioner from the audience asked Sanders to explain why he embraces the “socialist” label and requested that Sanders define it “so that it doesn’t concern the rest of us citizens.”

Sanders, explaining that much of what he proposes is happening in Scandinavia and Germany (a concept that itself alarms Americans who don’t want to be like socialized Europe), answered vaguely: “Creating a government that works for all of us, not just a handful of people on the top — that’s my definition of democratic socialism.”

But that’s not how Republicans will define socialism — and they’ll have the dictionary on their side. They’ll portray Sanders as one who wants the government to own and control major industries and the means of production and distribution of goods. They’ll say he wants to take away private property. That wouldn’t be fair, but it would be easy. Socialists don’t win national elections in the United States .

Sanders on Monday night also admitted he would seek massive tax increases — “one of the biggest tax hikes in history,” as moderator Chris Cuomo put it — to expand Medicare to all. Sanders, this time making a comparison with Britain and France, allowed that “hypothetically, you’re going to pay $5,000 more in taxes,” and declared, “W e will raise taxes, yes we will.” He said this would be offset by lower health-insurance premiums and protested that “it’s demagogic to say, oh, you’re paying more in taxes.

Well, yes — and Trump is a demagogue.

Sanders also made clear he would be happy to identify Democrats as the party of big government and of wealth redistribution. When Cuomo said Sanders seemed to be saying he would grow government “bigger than ever,” Sanders didn’t quarrel, saying, “P eople want to criticize me, okay,” and “F ine, if that’s the criticism, I accept it.”

Sanders accepts it, but are Democrats ready to accept ownership of socialism, massive tax increases and a dramatic expansion of government? If so, they will lose.

Match up polls are worthless because these polls do not measure what would happen to Sanders in a general election where Sanders is very vulnerable to negative ads.

Gothmog

(145,293 posts)
18. Match up polling is worthless
Sat Apr 30, 2016, 03:12 PM
Apr 2016

These match up polls are worthless but they are all that Sanders has to make the electablity argument. Here is a good thread talking about these polls See http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1107&pid=115859

LiberalFighter

(50,943 posts)
4. Automatic (Super) delegates are a lot smarter than Sanders.
Tue Apr 26, 2016, 11:27 AM
Apr 2016

Many of them have considerable experience with campaigns and know the difference between primary and general election campaigns.

BlueMTexpat

(15,369 posts)
6. Many of them also know
Tue Apr 26, 2016, 11:29 AM
Apr 2016

Sanders. As many of us have learned to our chagrin, to know Bernie is not necessarily to love him.

LiberalFighter

(50,943 posts)
7. That is an excellent reason for the automatic delegates.
Tue Apr 26, 2016, 11:39 AM
Apr 2016

They are either at the top level of the party or have access. And thereby have knowledge of how others play. They also have a better understanding of why ideas can or won't work related to what the President and get done on their own or needed with cooperation from Congress.

BlueMTexpat

(15,369 posts)
9. If anything, this election cycle
Tue Apr 26, 2016, 11:43 AM
Apr 2016

has taught me that SDs are working out exactly as they were designed to.

 

Her Sister

(6,444 posts)
8. Both Sanders and Kasich haven't been properly vetted much!
Tue Apr 26, 2016, 11:39 AM
Apr 2016

That's why they've seem to have done better in "polls"

People have gotten to know the Creepy-ness of Cruz but even he hasn't been vetted as much but we do know he is creepy. His own young daughter seems to not like him much. But no one knows he has had only one election in his life!

TRUMP has been given a lot of publicity and we know he is a racist and Bad news all around.

HRC has been attacked and smeared since the 1990's. and She has the most votes. Nothing thrown at HER will ever be believed b/c throwing stuff at her has been a sport. SO HER VOTERS KNOW THAT. At this point, anyone that tries to throw anything at her will have it thrown back! JUST BACKFIRES MAN! GIVE IT UP! MAKES YOU STINK!

WE KNOW HER! VOTING FOR HER!
HRC READY!

Freddie

(9,267 posts)
10. Excellent article
Tue Apr 26, 2016, 11:45 AM
Apr 2016

The Repugs would throw everything they can find (and there's a lot to find) at Bernie and it will stick.
What else can they dig up on Hillary that hasn't been already examined ad nauseum, and she's still standing proudly.
Can't wait to vote after work today!

SharonClark

(10,014 posts)
11. So agree, no opponent has turned their attention to Sanders
Tue Apr 26, 2016, 11:45 AM
Apr 2016

If they did he'd have a bigger struggle on his hands.
He must think automatic delegates are stupid.

pandr32

(11,588 posts)
13. "But if he wins they will rain down fire"
Tue Apr 26, 2016, 12:15 PM
Apr 2016

Quoted from the "Republicans haven't yet trashed him" hyperlink to the linked Vox article.

Sanders must either think we are all very gullible, or he is delusional himself. Perhaps his ego will not permit him to acknowledge that he would be cut down to bleed out if he were to wander into the battlefield with Republicans.

On the other hand, Hillary has already survived multiple battles with Republicans and has emerged stronger. All they have to fight her with now is the ammunition Sanders has been supplying them with--the main reason that to date they have let Sanders alone.

savalez

(3,517 posts)
14. Yep. Those mysterious polls must've been put out by....
Tue Apr 26, 2016, 12:27 PM
Apr 2016

THIS GUY



BS is his only chance for a Repug win.

Gothmog

(145,293 posts)
15. The Slate article is correct-match up polls are worthless
Tue Apr 26, 2016, 02:32 PM
Apr 2016

These match up polls are worthless but they are all that Sanders has to make the electablity argument. Here is a good thread talking about these polls http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511038010

The reliance on these polls by Sanders supporters amuse me. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/harrys-guide-to-2016-election-polls/

Ignore hypothetical matchups in primary season – they also measure nothing. General election polls before and during the primary season have a very wide margin of error. That’s especially the case for candidates who aren’t even in the race and therefore haven’t been treated to the onslaught of skeptical media coverage usually associated with being the candidate.

Sanders supporters have to rely on these worthless polls because it is clear that Sanders is not viable in a general election where the Kochs will be spending $887 million and the RNC candidate may spend an additional billion dollars.

No one should rely on hypo match up type polls in selecting a nominee at this stage of the race. Sanders would be a very weak general election candidate

Gothmog

(145,293 posts)
16. Sanders has not been vetted and so match up polls are really worthless
Tue Apr 26, 2016, 02:35 PM
Apr 2016

Dana Milbank has some good comments on general election match up polls https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/democrats-would-be-insane-to-nominate-bernie-sanders/2016/01/26/0590e624-c472-11e5-a4aa-f25866ba0dc6_story.html?hpid=hp_opinions-for-wide-side_opinion-card-a%3Ahomepage%2Fstory

Sanders and his supporters boast of polls showing him, on average, matching up slightly better against Trump than Clinton does. But those matchups are misleading: Opponents have been attacking and defining Clinton for a quarter- century, but nobody has really gone to work yet on demonizing Sanders.

Watching Sanders at Monday night’s Democratic presidential forum in Des Moines, I imagined how Trump — or another Republican nominee — would disembowel the relatively unknown Vermonter.


The first questioner from the audience asked Sanders to explain why he embraces the “socialist” label and requested that Sanders define it “so that it doesn’t concern the rest of us citizens.”

Sanders, explaining that much of what he proposes is happening in Scandinavia and Germany (a concept that itself alarms Americans who don’t want to be like socialized Europe), answered vaguely: “Creating a government that works for all of us, not just a handful of people on the top — that’s my definition of democratic socialism.”

But that’s not how Republicans will define socialism — and they’ll have the dictionary on their side. They’ll portray Sanders as one who wants the government to own and control major industries and the means of production and distribution of goods. They’ll say he wants to take away private property. That wouldn’t be fair, but it would be easy. Socialists don’t win national elections in the United States .

Sanders on Monday night also admitted he would seek massive tax increases — “one of the biggest tax hikes in history,” as moderator Chris Cuomo put it — to expand Medicare to all. Sanders, this time making a comparison with Britain and France, allowed that “hypothetically, you’re going to pay $5,000 more in taxes,” and declared, “W e will raise taxes, yes we will.” He said this would be offset by lower health-insurance premiums and protested that “it’s demagogic to say, oh, you’re paying more in taxes.

Well, yes — and Trump is a demagogue.

Sanders also made clear he would be happy to identify Democrats as the party of big government and of wealth redistribution. When Cuomo said Sanders seemed to be saying he would grow government “bigger than ever,” Sanders didn’t quarrel, saying, “P eople want to criticize me, okay,” and “F ine, if that’s the criticism, I accept it.”

Sanders accepts it, but are Democrats ready to accept ownership of socialism, massive tax increases and a dramatic expansion of government? If so, they will lose.

Match up polls are worthless because these polls do not measure what would happen to Sanders in a general election where Sanders is very vulnerable to negative ads.
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