Ho-Chi-mentum.

And its about time!

We should see more signs of this soon.

In the Dem primaries, where allocation of delegates is proportional to votes received, simply putting a percentage on the odds of "winning the state" is totally worthless. And doesn't always get that right!

The General is easier for him to look and understand and predict with better certainty.

I'm not really bashing Silver, just observing: There are about 10 posters at DU who took the time to sift through the polls leading up to a primary and try to nail down the % votes captured by HRC and BS. About half got pretty good. Nate's the "smartest guy in the room!" Buck up, Silver.

It seems that at least on the Dem side, he's done well. Some misses earlier but that was in open primaries.

For the GOP, that approach is awesome.

expected votes, under "projected results."

For example, for Indiana,

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/indiana-democratic/

the mean for HRC is 54.5% and the mean for BS is 42.9%.

I think 538 has not missed by much (except for Michigan) in most of these this year.

He simply takes the polls, gets a mean, generates the confidence interval, and that's it.

I don't hate him, and I used his site a lot in the first third of the primaries. Like everyone, he totally whiffed on Michigan. But, 538 never figured it out in open primaries while a few pollsters did.

We could go back and look at his projections I suppose, but .... nah. I'd rather concede the point than work that hard.

due to errors in polling which he relies on for his analysis.

That's not a 'HUGE' disappointment!

Delegates are awarded in most if not all Democratic cases by statewide vote and congressional district vote. Outside of pull numbers out of a hat, there really isn't much that he can do to determine how the delegates will swing on the congressional level.

When I get some free time, I need to go back and pull up his projected %ages for Sanders and HRC and see how he did.

But eventually it becomes obvious who's winning and who's losing, and voters become less inclined to support a candidate who cannot win.

Somebody has to keep buying beer and hot dogs.

very good reason!

He's always a johnny come lately.

In 2008, AAs made up 14% of the electorate, which should help Hillary if she manages to split white voters with Sanders. Voters over 40 made up 71% of the electorate.

I think it could set up well for her a la Missouri.

hope that prediction holds true!

I expect that to actually rise.

The other 9 are automatic delegates of which 7 have already committed to Hillary Clinton.

BUT, you have to have been registered to vote by April 4 (30 days before the primary)

Eye. Roll.