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Hillary Clinton
Related: About this forumClinton’s Delegate Lead Would Triple Under GOP Rules ~ 538 (HRC GP)
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clintons-delegate-lead-would-triple-under-gop-rules/Long article... some excerpts below
Current scenario: Caucus states lower turnout
Under current Democratic rules, Clinton has 1,662 pledged delegates and Sanders has 1,373; thats a lead of 289 delegates.3
This means that Sanders has won a larger share of the pledged delegates (45.2 percent) than of the popular Democratic vote (42.3 percent). David Wasserman recently explained that this gap exists partly because some of Sanderss best states have used caucuses instead of primaries, and turnout is lower in caucuses, where its harder to vote.
This means that Sanders has won a larger share of the pledged delegates (45.2 percent) than of the popular Democratic vote (42.3 percent). David Wasserman recently explained that this gap exists partly because some of Sanderss best states have used caucuses instead of primaries, and turnout is lower in caucuses, where its harder to vote.
Conclusion::
So whats the takeaway? The Democrats delegate allocation rules are more fair than the GOPs rules in the sense that vote shares are translated into delegate shares more faithfully and uniformly but aspects of the process, such as the use of low-turnout caucuses and some delegates getting allocated based on the results of subsequent conventions, can distort that translation. If the Democrats used Republican allocation, Clinton would have wrapped up the nomination long, long ago. If the Republicans used Democratic allocation, wed almost assuredly be heading toward a contested Republican convention.
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Clinton’s Delegate Lead Would Triple Under GOP Rules ~ 538 (HRC GP) (Original Post)
Her Sister
Apr 2016
OP
Her Sister
(6,444 posts)1. This means that Sanders has won a larger share of the pledged delegates than of the popular vote
This means that Sanders has won a larger share of the pledged delegates (45.2 percent) than of the popular Democratic vote (42.3 percent).
If the Democrats used Republican allocation, Clinton would have wrapped up the nomination long, long ago.
If the Republicans used Democratic allocation, wed almost assuredly be heading toward a contested Republican convention.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clintons-delegate-lead-would-triple-under-gop-rules/
If the Democrats used Republican allocation, Clinton would have wrapped up the nomination long, long ago.
If the Republicans used Democratic allocation, wed almost assuredly be heading toward a contested Republican convention.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clintons-delegate-lead-would-triple-under-gop-rules/
LiberalFighter
(50,928 posts)2. Another way to see the difference in Democratic delegates
is to determine how many delegates states would receive when it is based on the votes a Republican candidate had received in past elections. For example in New York Republicans would have fewer delegates while Alabama would have more delegates than for Democrats.
yallerdawg
(16,104 posts)3. And we do proportional delegate pledging.
Clintons 289-delegate lead becomes a massive 977-delegate lead if we re-run the Democratic primaries using Republican rules. Thats a jump from a lead of 10 percentage points to a lead of 32 percentage points.