Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search
 

Her Sister

(6,444 posts)
Thu Apr 28, 2016, 03:45 PM Apr 2016

Clinton’s Delegate Lead Would Triple Under GOP Rules ~ 538 (HRC GP)

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clintons-delegate-lead-would-triple-under-gop-rules/

Long article... some excerpts below

Current scenario: Caucus states’ lower turnout

Under current Democratic rules, Clinton has 1,662 pledged delegates and Sanders has 1,373; that’s a lead of 289 delegates.3

This means that Sanders has won a larger share of the pledged delegates (45.2 percent) than of the popular Democratic vote (42.3 percent). David Wasserman recently explained that this gap exists partly because some of Sanders’s best states have used caucuses instead of primaries, and turnout is lower in caucuses, where it’s harder to vote.


Conclusion::

So what’s the takeaway? The Democrats’ delegate allocation rules are more “fair” than the GOP’s rules in the sense that vote shares are translated into delegate shares more faithfully and uniformly — but aspects of the process, such as the use of low-turnout caucuses and some delegates getting allocated based on the results of subsequent conventions, can distort that translation. If the Democrats used Republican allocation, Clinton would have wrapped up the nomination long, long ago. If the Republicans used Democratic allocation, we’d almost assuredly be heading toward a contested Republican convention.
3 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
Clinton’s Delegate Lead Would Triple Under GOP Rules ~ 538 (HRC GP) (Original Post) Her Sister Apr 2016 OP
This means that Sanders has won a larger share of the pledged delegates than of the popular vote Her Sister Apr 2016 #1
Another way to see the difference in Democratic delegates LiberalFighter Apr 2016 #2
And we do proportional delegate pledging. yallerdawg Apr 2016 #3
 

Her Sister

(6,444 posts)
1. This means that Sanders has won a larger share of the pledged delegates than of the popular vote
Thu Apr 28, 2016, 03:47 PM
Apr 2016
This means that Sanders has won a larger share of the pledged delegates (45.2 percent) than of the popular Democratic vote (42.3 percent).


If the Democrats used Republican allocation, Clinton would have wrapped up the nomination long, long ago.


If the Republicans used Democratic allocation, we’d almost assuredly be heading toward a contested Republican convention.



http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clintons-delegate-lead-would-triple-under-gop-rules/

LiberalFighter

(50,928 posts)
2. Another way to see the difference in Democratic delegates
Thu Apr 28, 2016, 03:55 PM
Apr 2016

is to determine how many delegates states would receive when it is based on the votes a Republican candidate had received in past elections. For example in New York Republicans would have fewer delegates while Alabama would have more delegates than for Democrats.

yallerdawg

(16,104 posts)
3. And we do proportional delegate pledging.
Thu Apr 28, 2016, 04:47 PM
Apr 2016
Clinton’s 289-delegate lead becomes a massive 977-delegate lead if we re-run the Democratic primaries using Republican rules. That’s a jump from a lead of 10 percentage points to a lead of 32 percentage points.
Latest Discussions»Retired Forums»Hillary Clinton»Clinton’s Delegate Lead W...