Hillary Clinton

book_worm

(15,951 posts) Sun May 22, 2016, 09:15 AM May 2016

HRC leads 56-42 over BS in primary but BS supporters give Trump a narrow lead

General Election: Trump vs. Clinton ABC News/Wash Post Trump 46, Clinton 44 Trump +2
2016 Democratic Presidential Nomination ABC News/Wash Post Clinton 56, Sanders 42 Clinton +14

The continued Democratic primary race appears to be sapping some of Clinton’s strength. She’s
losing 20 percent of Bernie Sanders’ supporters to Trump, while winning only 11 percent of
leaned Republicans who backed someone other than Trump for their party’s nomination.

Remarkably, Clinton is only running evenly with Trump among 18- to 29-year-olds – a key
Sanders support group that’s looking ever-more resistant to her nomination. In March, Clinton
led Trump among under-30s by 39 percentage points, 64-25 percent. Today they split 45-42
percent. It’s a group Barack Obama won by 23 points in 2012, and one that Clinton needs back.

That said, Clinton has some powerful cards in the hole, particularly if she can bring her party
together and mobilize her key support groups. She continues to lead in expectations that she’ll
win, albeit more narrowly than previously. In the primaries, 56 percent of leaned Democrats
support her for the nomination, +7 from March, while just 33 percent of leaned Republicans say
they preferred Trump. And 55 percent of leaned Democrats are “very confident” the party will
coalesce around its nominee, double the share of leaned Republicans who strongly expect
Kumbaya to prevail in their party.

http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1177a1ClintonTrump.pdf

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

6 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

HRC leads 56-42 over BS in primary but BS supporters give Trump a narrow lead (Original Post) book_worm May 2016 OP

sanders and many sanders supporters want trump to be elected..destroy america to make us all sad we beachbum bob May 2016 #1

Polls before the conventions don't mean anything... dubyadiprecession May 2016 #2

no question about it, a lot of alledged Sanders supporters in these polls of Hillary verse Trump, go still_one May 2016 #3

None if these polls will matter months from now. The GE resets everything. BobbyDrake May 2016 #4

Hillary leads Sanders 56-42% nationally! yallerdawg May 2016 #5

Given that Sanders now loudly extols these nat'l polls as proof that he is somehow... Princess Turandot May 2016 #6

beachbum bob

(10,437 posts)

1. sanders and many sanders supporters want trump to be elected..destroy america to make us all sad we

Reply to book_worm (Original post)

Sun May 22, 2016, 09:20 AM

May 2016

didn't nominate St. Bernie to be our a savoir...and man of many blah blah blahs....but no real solutions....the gullible buy is bull those of over 45 have much more sense

dubyadiprecession

(5,714 posts)

2. Polls before the conventions don't mean anything...

Reply to book_worm (Original post)

Sun May 22, 2016, 09:21 AM

May 2016

Dukakis was up 30 points on the first bush. We all know how that turned out.

still_one

(92,217 posts)

3. no question about it, a lot of alledged Sanders supporters in these polls of Hillary verse Trump, go

Reply to book_worm (Original post)

Sun May 22, 2016, 09:22 AM

May 2016

with Trump, which skew the results artificially

BobbyDrake

(2,542 posts)

4. None if these polls will matter months from now. The GE resets everything.

Reply to book_worm (Original post)

Sun May 22, 2016, 09:54 AM

May 2016

There will only be two people included in polling after the conventions, and Sanders is not one of them.

yallerdawg

(16,104 posts)

5. Hillary leads Sanders 56-42% nationally!

Reply to book_worm (Original post)

Sun May 22, 2016, 01:28 PM

May 2016

It's getting worse - it's getting pathetic.

Princess Turandot

(4,787 posts)

6. Given that Sanders now loudly extols these nat'l polls as proof that he is somehow...

Reply to book_worm (Original post)

Sun May 22, 2016, 03:32 PM

May 2016

the better candidate (since the primary voters did not see in that way), it's extremely likely that when polled, a good number of his supporters pivot to Trump in the HRC-Trump match-up part of the poll. And that will continue until he drops outs, or the polling companies stop putting him into an election that they know he is 99.999999% unlikely to be participating in.

And that's before any consideration of individual survey problems, or the fact that we do not elect presidents using a raw national vote count.

But polls are not elections. Responses don't have consequences.

Reply to this discussion