Hillary Clinton
Related: About this forumThere was a magnificent post recently which explained why addin the caucasus votes
wouldn't really alter the popular vote count.
Does anyone remember?
If anyone does, please post a link to it.
Her Sister
(6,444 posts)lunamagica
(9,967 posts)Response to Her Sister (Reply #1)
George II This message was self-deleted by its author.
LAS14
(13,783 posts)... is a John Oliver bit. I read it today, but I don't know how to search for it. The OP points out that the math explanation comes around minute 12.2.
DLCWIdem
(1,580 posts)George II
(67,782 posts).....thanks so much!) I figured I'm obligated to update those numbers.
So, using the same formulas, and ignoring the relatively tiny Guam, American Samoa, etc. caucuses, here are the updated numbers.
Caucus "popular votes":
Clinton 1,188,623, Sanders 2,155,134 - Sanders has 966,511 more votes.
Primary popular votes:
Clinton 12,909,137, Sanders 9,734,368 - Clinton has 3,174,769 more votes.
Total votes:
Clinton 14,097,760, Sanders 11,889,502 - Clinton has 2,208,258 more votes.
Clinton has 54% of the popular vote, Sanders 46%. Pledged delegate-wise, the % are identical!
The only caveat in this is that as pointed out the first time, caucus turnout is less than half the normal primary turnout, so the gap is even higher (i.e., more than 2.2M votes)
lunamagica
(9,967 posts)being ahead by mlillions was a myth which had been debunked. HA!
Than;s for the updated analysis!
George II
(67,782 posts)...where only about 60,000 people will show up. I'm guessing that will be a very big win for Sanders, it's an open caucus so the Trump/republican voters have nothing to really vote for, so are probably already scheming to vote for Sanders. Even if it's 70/30 that will be 42,000 to 18,000, a difference of 24,000.
LiberalFighter
(50,942 posts)It looks like they have popular votes for all caucuses except for Wyoming. Wyoming only shows state convention delegate numbers.
Their numbers put totals at Sanders: 675,115 and Clinton: 400,072. (Includes Wyoming votes as delegates - Sanders: 156 -- Clinton: 124)
This shows that about 7,000 showed up to vote in the Wyoming caucus. So split is about 3,900 to 3,100.
George II
(67,782 posts)....the local convention delegate counts for some states, or estimates (i.e., for Iowa they have "delegatesX100" for the presumed popular vote). So, I ignored them because they may not be accurate. Instead I did my very liberal calculations which probably way overestimate the real number of voters but still show a couple of million more votes for Clinton vs. Sanders.
At least the order of magnitude is in the "ballpark".
LiberalFighter
(50,942 posts)Also, news reports confirmed those numbers.