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LiberalFighter

(50,950 posts)
Tue May 24, 2016, 09:52 AM May 2016

Sanders' supporters are being mislead over in their group. (More Bernie Math)

They think Sanders will win 61.25% of the votes. Now that is odd using that percent. But they are also saying based on the source used that Sanders will overtake Clinton. In addition, they do not provide any source to the polling.

Here is the math they are using based on 73% that Sanders got in Washington. Don't know why they are using Washington's 73% when they are saying California will win 61.25%.

California delegates: 546 (Actual Pledged: 475 -- Unpledged included: 548)
Sanders: 398 -- Clinton: 147. (Their split is based on both pledged and unpledged delegates - That is not how it works) The actual split would be Sanders: 347 -- Clinton: 128.

They show beginning delegates as Clinton: 1446 -- Sanders: 1202. When it should be Clinton: 1771 -- Sanders: 1499.

Using their beginning delegates vs actual beginning delegates
Clinton: 1446 +128 = 1574 * * * * (1771 + 128 = 1899)
Sandes: 1202 +347 = 1549 * * * * (1499 + 347 = 1846)

They are still short.


Using the 61% from the poll they say they have the split would be Sanders: 290 -- Clinton: 185.

Using actual beginning delegates there is a 167 delegate advantage.
1771 + 185 = 1956
1499 + 290 = 1789

DU Sanders Group

Bernie Sanders Projected To Win California With 61.25% Gaining 398 Delegates


I don't know what polling data they are using but the best I could find was RealClear Politics. FXO Nwes from mid April had the best poll for Sanders behind Clinton 48-46. Most recent poll from KABC/SurveyUSA that just ended two days ago has it Clinton 57-39. Rolling average is Clinton 51-41.5

Clinton should have about a 45 to nearly 90 delegate net win in California. Possibly about 73 if Clinton wins the state 59 - 41. That is based on the 57-39 polling.

26 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Sanders' supporters are being mislead over in their group. (More Bernie Math) (Original Post) LiberalFighter May 2016 OP
They are allowing themselves to be mislead. Too much koolaid. Arkansas Granny May 2016 #1
It's almost impossible for some people to admit they were fooled. puffy socks May 2016 #15
Well, if they don't... JSup May 2016 #21
A while back, they bought into a poll that Sanders was going to win California 2:1. It turned out TwilightZone May 2016 #2
I saw something about an Italian and a vast array of other interests. LiberalFighter May 2016 #3
Yep. And trained in diplomacy! TwilightZone May 2016 #9
This BlueMTexpat May 2016 #12
Washington was an open state caucus. Anyone could walk in and register. Fla Dem May 2016 #4
Washington also had about 5% of the constituency show up to the caucuses. ismnotwasm May 2016 #11
So hope Hillary Wins in California and helps put a stop to the Cha May 2016 #5
If he gets blown out... TwilightZone May 2016 #6
... Cha May 2016 #7
Yeah, it's time to end this charade. TwilightZone May 2016 #10
You just know that if he doesn't win, they will blame it on a rigged system. Arkansas Granny May 2016 #16
Agreed. As I said in another thread, it's one big nationwide conspiracy. TwilightZone May 2016 #17
The money is already dwindling. Once she clinches NYC Liberal May 2016 #18
This primary was over march 15th GusBob May 2016 #8
Exactly! peggysue2 May 2016 #20
Probably better that they delude themselves MSMITH33156 May 2016 #13
Unfortunately, that probably won't be the case. TwilightZone May 2016 #14
They are just delusional DLCWIdem May 2016 #19
Starting to sound like Jackpine Radicals Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin May 2016 #22
They're only following Bernie's lead. His goal seems to be to incite a riot. Bernie owns this. grossproffit May 2016 #23
61.25% - That is an amazing claim. James Walker makes a few others in his self-promotion.... SharonClark May 2016 #24
Wow! And they believe it? That's a mighty lot of stupid! Squinch May 2016 #25
Can't do no math, cause they ain't gettin' no free college educatin' liberal N proud May 2016 #26
 

puffy socks

(1,473 posts)
15. It's almost impossible for some people to admit they were fooled.
Tue May 24, 2016, 11:26 AM
May 2016

I don't see it with some of Bernie's supporters. They've dug their heels in at every turn refusing to even entertain the idea that Bernie the Incorruptible could be leading them around by the nose. it's too hard, too much foolish pride. It takes actual toughness.

JSup

(740 posts)
21. Well, if they don't...
Tue May 24, 2016, 02:11 PM
May 2016

...allow themselves to be fooled then they can't cry 'fraud', so...

Also, sometimes when you're so invested in a concept it becomes hard to turn back because you would have to admit making a mistake; I know this from experience.

TwilightZone

(25,471 posts)
2. A while back, they bought into a poll that Sanders was going to win California 2:1. It turned out
Tue May 24, 2016, 10:06 AM
May 2016

to be a 14-year-old in Italy who made the whole thing up.

Looking at the "data" of this new one, there's no source for the poll. It looks like it's based off of some phone calls some guy made phone-banking for Sanders.

Yeah, that's going to be accurate.

Fla Dem

(23,691 posts)
4. Washington was an open state caucus. Anyone could walk in and register.
Tue May 24, 2016, 10:18 AM
May 2016

It is not indicative of anything. California is not Washington State.

State of Washington

Race and ethnicity
According to the 2010 United States census, the racial and ethnic composition of Washington was the following:[42][52]
White: 77.3% (Non-Hispanic Whites 71%, White Hispanics 6.3%)
Black or African American: 3.6%
Native Americans: 1.5%
Asian: 7.2%
Pacific Islander: 0.4% (0.2% Samoan, 0.1% Guamanian, 0.1% Hawaiian)
Two or more races: 4.7%
Other races 5.1%

Bernie has not done well in multi-cultural states.

California
Population By Races

Race..........................Population.......% of Total
Total Population...........37,253,956...........100
White ...........................21,453,934.........57
Hispanic or Latino............14,013,719...........37
Some Other Race .............6,317,372...........16
Asian .............................4,861,007...........13
Black or African American..2,299,072.............6

ismnotwasm

(41,989 posts)
11. Washington also had about 5% of the constituency show up to the caucuses.
Tue May 24, 2016, 10:46 AM
May 2016

Not a great showing at all.

Cha

(297,320 posts)
5. So hope Hillary Wins in California and helps put a stop to the
Tue May 24, 2016, 10:21 AM
May 2016

deception.

sanders won't help his supporters learn the truth.. Hillary has to do it for him.

TwilightZone

(25,471 posts)
6. If he gets blown out...
Tue May 24, 2016, 10:36 AM
May 2016

the balloon is going to deflate rather rapidly. All of this unsupported Sanders hype about California is going to lead to a lot of crashing and burning if he loses, especially if he loses big.

Arkansas Granny

(31,518 posts)
16. You just know that if he doesn't win, they will blame it on a rigged system.
Tue May 24, 2016, 11:30 AM
May 2016

That seems to be the standard MO.

TwilightZone

(25,471 posts)
17. Agreed. As I said in another thread, it's one big nationwide conspiracy.
Tue May 24, 2016, 11:36 AM
May 2016

They have so many built-in excuses that they could get 99% of what they wanted and still think it's rigged.

NYC Liberal

(20,136 posts)
18. The money is already dwindling. Once she clinches
Tue May 24, 2016, 12:12 PM
May 2016

I suspect it will dry up completely except for a few "Bern the convention" diehards giving a few dollars.

Look at his debate crap, which is a very obvious ploy for free airtime since he has no money to run ads.

peggysue2

(10,832 posts)
20. Exactly!
Tue May 24, 2016, 01:37 PM
May 2016

The St Bernard Brigade was willingly fooled into thinking things would turn their way or that Hillary was a nanosecond from prosecution (nice right-wing meme) or that the system was rigged against Sanders.

As the saying goes: it's far easier to fool people than it is to have those same people admit that they've been fooled. Human nature, I guess.

But as stated, the primary result has been scrawled on the wall since March. The only thing left is the weeping.

MSMITH33156

(879 posts)
13. Probably better that they delude themselves
Tue May 24, 2016, 11:07 AM
May 2016

that way when they lose California, they'll know they lost the election.

Versus claiming fraud, etc. If their plan is to win California by a large enough margin to overturn the delegate lead, then hopefully when that doesn't come close to happening, they will concede they lost.

The biggest long-term threat is that group thinking that they are being cheated and the results are unfair. Not that they think they can win.

TwilightZone

(25,471 posts)
14. Unfortunately, that probably won't be the case.
Tue May 24, 2016, 11:11 AM
May 2016

They've convinced themselves that they're losing only because of a nationwide conspiracy, so losing CA will only be the latest link in that chain. They'll probably blame Barbara Boxer. Again.

DLCWIdem

(1,580 posts)
19. They are just delusional
Tue May 24, 2016, 12:54 PM
May 2016

A while back one of thier threads said Sanders would gain 100 delegates from just three states Indiana, Kentucky and Oregon. I was tweaking them after Indiana 6 down 94 to go, but I stopped after that it just wasn't worth it. I Thought do not feed the......

SharonClark

(10,014 posts)
24. 61.25% - That is an amazing claim. James Walker makes a few others in his self-promotion....
Tue May 24, 2016, 03:16 PM
May 2016

The SourcePlanet.net website was founded by James Walker, who lives and works in the Lake Tahoe area. What he began in early 2016 as an expression of his interest in researching about the political processes quickly became popular. SourcePlanet.net is routinely included in other main stream outlets.

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