538 doesn't have this one listed yet. It'll be interesting to see if their forecast changes later today.

Just a little nervous that there isn't much data and what's available is all over the place.

It shouldn't matter after NJ, but a clear CA win by Hillary would help shut down some of the nonsense.

I love to see a California win by a comfortable margin, but even a close loss isn't going to change a thing.

The poll has Hillary up 6 with whites, 9 with Hispanics, and presumably even more with African Americans. There is no way anyone who isn't inept at math can look at those numbers and say the total margin is far less than with any of those groups, since they combine to make up the vast majority of Californians.

Either that poll's data or conclusions are pure garbage.

Whites: 47/41 Hillary
Latinos: 52/43 Hillary

"Other" would have to be heavily Sanders to get to 46/44 overall, probably at least 60/40.

Unless I'm missing something, I can't find where "Other" is listed or broken down. Presumably, it's mostly African Americans and Asian Americans, plus a few percentage points for various others considering the demographics in CA. African Americans are presumably going to be heavily Hillary, so Asian Americans and the others would have to be something like 80/20 Sanders for the math to work.

Putting African Americans in "other"? That is seriously effed up.

Last edited Thu May 26, 2016, 11:00 AM - Edit history (1)

I think it's mostly for space purposes on the survey report, though they usually have them broken down somewhere. As of 2014, whites and Latinos were a little under 80% of the population. Asians were around 13%; AA were 6% or so.

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/01/24/in-2014-latinos-will-surpass-whites-as-largest-racialethnic-group-in-california/

Hillary is in the wheelhouse for Asians. Asians love Obama and like Hillary.

win, lose...she has the delegate and popular vote leads that can't be overcome

If Sanders were to win CA, his bots would never shut up. I'd rather see wins, huge if possible, in both NJ and CA to crush their delusions. Sanders needs to come out strongly for Hillary before the convention.

A comfortable win in CA would help shut down the nonsense and make it easier for Sanders to pack it in.

zealots don't go away quietly I am afraid

which is the respected poll (like that of the Selzer organization for the Des Moines Register in Iowa) of the state.

They also oversampled women a bit, 56/44.

Hopefully, they'll do another one before the primary. Today would be nice. haha

Link, just because: http://www.field.com/fieldpollonline/subscribers/Rls2531.pdf

lol

Let's take a couple:

College Grad vs less than College:

Sanders is +8% amongst the less educated segment (243) while Clinton is +19% amongst the more educated segment (303)

.08*243=19
.19*303=57

57-19=38

38/549 (total respondents per survey)=7%

Or, let's take home owners vs renters:

Sanders leads amongst renters by 20% (174 respondents) while Clinton leads amongst homeowners (359) by 17%

.2*174=35
.17*359=61

61-35=26 (which doesn't tie out to the education breakdown)

Still, 26/549=5%

Household income looks like it's pretty much right on. College/non-college, right next to it, is 5 points off. Odd.

Basically split for 55+, with Trump winning white voters?

Trump winning men by 10%?

no.

Can't tell which are right and which are wrong or which ones were used in calculating the 46/44, so looks like we'll just wait for a better one to be released. Field should be along before too long.