Hillary Clinton
Related: About this forumCalifornia Up for Grabs, Poll Finds, as Clinton and Sanders Battle
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/27/us/politics/clinton-sanders-california-poll.html?ref=politics&_r=0LOS ANGELES Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders are locked in a tight race in California, the nations most populous state and one that until recently seemed strongly in Mrs. Clintons corner, a new statewide poll has found.
The poll, released Wednesday night by the Public Policy Institute of California, showed Mrs. Clinton leading Mr. Sanders among likely voters, 46 percent to 44 percent within the margin of error. A survey by the organization in March found Mrs. Clinton with a lead of 48 percent to 41 percent over Mr. Sanders.
The survey came as both Mr. Sanders and Mrs. Clinton have stepped up their campaign appearances here in anticipation of the June 7 primary. Mr. Sanders, after initially saying he would not advertise on television here California is one of the most expensive states for television advertising, given its size and the number of media markets took to the airwaves this week.
And Mrs. Clinton has quickly responded, with ads set to begin running on Friday in the Los Angeles, Fresno and Sacramento markets: one narrated by the actor Morgan Freeman, another highlighting Mrs. Clintons endorsement by the civil rights activist Dolores Huerta. The Clinton campaign will also run Spanish-language ads aimed at Latino voters, and translated commercials in Cantonese, Mandarin, Vietnamese and Korean.
For Mrs. Clinton in particular, the ad buy is a significant reversal: Her campaign had halted its advertising after her decisive victories in the mid-Atlantic states on April 26, aside from a brief return to television in Kentucky
Mr. Sanderss aides said he intended to spend nearly all his time in California until the June 7 primary, a signal of how much importance he has attached to a victory here as he tries to keep his campaign going through the convention. His rallies have drawn big, enthusiastic crowds in many parts of the state.
Even with a loss in the primary, Mrs. Clinton would almost certainly win enough delegates to capture her partys nomination. That said, a loss to Mr. Sanders in this state which she won in 2008 and which Bill Clinton won in the 1992 primaries would provide a sour and deflating end to her primary campaign.
more on story...CANT WAIT UNTIL THIS IS OVER FOR GOOD ,,AND BS is gone...,HILLARY 2016
asuhornets
(2,405 posts)Iamaartist
(3,300 posts)I I thought polls said she was ahead....by large margin..she will win either way..
TwilightZone
(25,471 posts)All over the place. Looking at the data, I think this one's an outlier, but not 100% sure.
johnson_z
(45 posts)This is a non-issue, she will have enough delegates/votes, just a lot of drama.
SaschaHM
(2,897 posts)She was beating Bernie by 9 points among hispanics, and 6 points among white voters and yet, they only had her up by 2 points. "Other" must really shift towards Bernie.
Iamaartist
(3,300 posts)Starry Messenger
(32,342 posts)BlueCaliDem
(15,438 posts)win the general election by 53%.
Since Republicans damn well know they won't win California no matter what, I'm certain plenty of them will heed the call to crossover and vote for the current loser in the Democratic Party primary just to stick a finger in Hillary's eye.
I'm getting really sick and tired of seeing negative reporting on Hillary Clinton who is getting, what I now call, the "2012 Obama treatment" with far more negative reporting by all U.S. media than Republicans will ever "enjoy".
Clearly, both the Cons and the so-called Liberals in our news media are doing their damnedest to bludgeon Hillary Clinton and are then putting out one poll after the other to see if their concerted effort is working in order to frame the narrative. Clearly, the Hunting of the Clintons has begun already with the most ridiculous "hot news items" they can currently come up with, using a (by Republicans) leaked State Dpt report and making it sound worse than it is.
Cha
(297,275 posts)showed Hillary winning by around 9%.. not that I trusted it to not waver.. but, this is quite a change.
Darn! And, I know she's going to get the Nom really soon.. I just wanted her to Win Cali.
BlueCaliDem
(15,438 posts)putting out polls that show Hillary Clinton's lead with "yuge" margins thereby creating a false narrative, report something negative, ad nauseam, and in the worst possible way, then create new polls to show her numbers having fallen big time, and then reporting that she's "lost the trust of the American voter". Pravda would've been envious of the U.S. propaganda machine infesting this country.
If we can get all Democrats - true Democrats - in California to come out and vote in these primaries (only 19% of registered Californians voted in 2014 and Democrats still won, so we'll see) then we can counter the faux-Dems and Operation Chaos 2016 "Dems" voting for BS.
My group of 41 have already sent out our ballots for her last Monday, so she has 41 votes (and I don't know how many more that my group have canvassed for her amongst their family and friends) secured for her.
Cha
(297,275 posts)m$m.. they never change Except to get worse.
My sister in San Diego mailed her ballot in the other day.. Thank you for your 41!
My daughter was born in San Diego.. I want the Win! My son was born in Philly!
WI_DEM.. said this will be the poll to watch for Cali..
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1107&pid=145551
BlueCaliDem
(15,438 posts)stories they're reporting on Democrats - just to keep up to date. However, I do need to watch my blood-pressure.
About 95% of what they report is, not surprisingly, from the Republican p.o.v. Even their reports on Trump the Clown is from the Republican Party's p.o.v. since they dislike him with a passion. Watch for the change of reportage when Republicans unite behind this joke of a presidential candidate. It will be gradual but it will happen. Then it's going to be all sweet-talk for Trump the Joke all the way to the last week before the November election.
My daughter was born in San Diego.. I want the Win! My son was born in Philly!
lol! Cha the traveler! Well, my first born son and my third child, my daughter, were born in Arnhem and Almere-Stad, the Netherlands, respectfully, and my middle-child (son) was born in Duarte, California, so I guess we have that in common, too. lol
I saw WI_Dem's post, and also read Koinos' post just below that the PPIC leans Republican, so I'm not all too worried that our gal will win California.
Cha
(297,275 posts)We were living in California and on vacation is Philly when that happened.
our babies all grown up now.
BlueCaliDem
(15,438 posts)back. I went to high school there (had to learn the language and it wasn't easy!).
I lived there for a few years and met my husband there and had my son there, too. Then he immigrated and came with me to California and we arrived one day after the Los Angeles Olympics had started in '84, and in '86 my second son was born and then my husband got homesick so we went back to the Netherlands where, four years later, my daughter was born. When she was three years old, we returned to California when my sister got really sick (she passed at 30 years old a year to the day later). And we've been here ever since.
And according to the INS laws, all three of my children are natural born Americans and have been Democrats from the moment they had become 18. And yes, they're all grown up and living their own happy lives.
Cha
(297,275 posts)I'm so happy for you and you international family, BlueCali~
BlueCaliDem
(15,438 posts)make up our minds which country we'd like to live in. But we decided the U.S. was still the best for our children, and we haven't regretted it since...the last time we came in '95, that is.
Same to you and your intranational family, Cha!
Cha
(297,275 posts)we're internation, too!
Glad you're in Cali and @ least bi-lingual.
stopbush
(24,396 posts)That poll is an outlier.
Cha
(297,275 posts)stopbush
(24,396 posts)Trump securing the delegates he needs to be the R nominee means that it's time for Ds to get SERIOUSLY SERIOUS, and that means to get behind Hillary and let Sanders be the also ran who also ran.
I wouldn't be surprised if there's a major move in the uncommitted supers to commit to Hillary before June 7. Hillary could be as little as 20 delegates away from the nomination before the polls open here on June 7.
Cha
(297,275 posts)stopbush
(24,396 posts)Funny, but I thought Hillary would do well in WA and NB, but she got killed in the caucuses, which count. I guess it's a small vindication that she then won those state primaries quite handily, even though they don't count in the delegate allocation.
Cha
(297,275 posts)history in Las Vegas.
I think it's a big vindication that Hillary won the Vote in WA by 53-47 or 46%(I've seen both).. And, Nebraska! Caucuses really do skew.
Now the Washington SuperDs have no valid argument from berns on how.. they must vote for sanders!
The symbolic win took away their talking point.
RBInMaine
(13,570 posts)He couldn't even win the popular vote in WA, for chrissake.
WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)I think California will be close. But if it is close it is still a loss for Bernie.
TwilightZone
(25,471 posts)Edit: Sorry, link to the poll breakdown: http://www.democraticunderground.com/1107145478#post7
liberal N proud
(60,335 posts)Even with a win, Bernie loses because unless he can take all the delegates, he stands no #%&*( chance.
BlueCaliDem
(15,438 posts)open primary election. CA Dem Party needs to close the primary election to only Democratic voters, just like the Republican Party has here.
texstad79
(115 posts)I think HRC wins CA by at least double digits. Quite probably by 15 or more.
Koinos
(2,792 posts)538 gives this pollster an "A-" rating, but it also indicates that PPIC leans slightly Republican, for whatever that is worth.
TwilightZone
(25,471 posts)They should be updating their numbers today or tomorrow. I'm interested in what they think of it since it's so far off of the SurveyUSA one done at roughly the same time. They can't both be right.
Koinos
(2,792 posts)538 seems to think that SurveyUSA is more reliable. We'll see what happens with polling much closer to June 7.
TwilightZone
(25,471 posts)The SurveyUSA one is getting 5x the weighting, so not putting much faith in the new one at all. 97% polls-plus rating, projecting 61/37.
Works for me. We'll see how it goes in the next week or so.
Koinos
(2,792 posts)If I guessed right, do I win a prize?
TwilightZone
(25,471 posts)My first thought was that the PPIC poll was an outlier, and digging further, the math still isn't making any sense.
I'm just glad to see that someone who generally knows what they're doing doesn't consider it on par with the SurveyUSA one, either.
Not that it'll matter in the long run as far as the nomination goes, of course. I'd just like to see an easy win in CA to help tone down the nonsense around here. Probably won't help, but one can dream.
Legends303
(481 posts)I would be surprised if he won calafornia. It seems unlikely since his momentum is slowly draining.
stopbush
(24,396 posts)of us in CA), and the youngsters who attend his rallies don't show up at the polls.
PLUS, it's a semi-open primary, and anyone who hasn't changed their party registration to D or NPP by now can't vote in the D primary.
Hillary losing CA would be a real shock. It's not going to happen.
George II
(67,782 posts)....Project538 gives that one more than four times the weight of the PPIC poll.
still_one
(92,216 posts)better handle on this, but one the is pretty obvious, no one is gone to garner a +30 point lead over their opponent, and that is what Sanders needs
Most likely the final results will be within a 10 point spread between the candidates
Iamaartist
(3,300 posts)still_one
(92,216 posts)LiberalFighter
(50,942 posts)YET, he actually lost Washington in a primary.