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Iamaartist

(3,300 posts)
Thu May 26, 2016, 08:51 AM May 2016

California Up for Grabs, Poll Finds, as Clinton and Sanders Battle

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/27/us/politics/clinton-sanders-california-poll.html?ref=politics&_r=0


LOS ANGELES — Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders are locked in a tight race in California, the nation’s most populous state and one that until recently seemed strongly in Mrs. Clinton’s corner, a new statewide poll has found.

The poll, released Wednesday night by the Public Policy Institute of California, showed Mrs. Clinton leading Mr. Sanders among likely voters, 46 percent to 44 percent — within the margin of error. A survey by the organization in March found Mrs. Clinton with a lead of 48 percent to 41 percent over Mr. Sanders.

The survey came as both Mr. Sanders and Mrs. Clinton have stepped up their campaign appearances here in anticipation of the June 7 primary. Mr. Sanders, after initially saying he would not advertise on television here — California is one of the most expensive states for television advertising, given its size and the number of media markets — took to the airwaves this week.

And Mrs. Clinton has quickly responded, with ads set to begin running on Friday in the Los Angeles, Fresno and Sacramento markets: one narrated by the actor Morgan Freeman, another highlighting Mrs. Clinton’s endorsement by the civil rights activist Dolores Huerta. The Clinton campaign will also run Spanish-language ads aimed at Latino voters, and translated commercials in Cantonese, Mandarin, Vietnamese and Korean.

For Mrs. Clinton in particular, the ad buy is a significant reversal: Her campaign had halted its advertising after her decisive victories in the mid-Atlantic states on April 26, aside from a brief return to television in Kentucky


Mr. Sanders’s aides said he intended to spend nearly all his time in California until the June 7 primary, a signal of how much importance he has attached to a victory here as he tries to keep his campaign going through the convention. His rallies have drawn big, enthusiastic crowds in many parts of the state.

Even with a loss in the primary, Mrs. Clinton would almost certainly win enough delegates to capture her party’s nomination. That said, a loss to Mr. Sanders in this state — which she won in 2008 and which Bill Clinton won in the 1992 primaries — would provide a sour and deflating end to her primary campaign.

more on story...CANT WAIT UNTIL THIS IS OVER FOR GOOD ,,AND BS is gone...,HILLARY 2016



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California Up for Grabs, Poll Finds, as Clinton and Sanders Battle (Original Post) Iamaartist May 2016 OP
I want her to win California-although she doesn't need to win it-to become nominee..nt asuhornets May 2016 #1
I agree.... Iamaartist May 2016 #2
RCP only has two from this month. One is this poll, the other is at +18 TwilightZone May 2016 #14
This is true! johnson_z May 2016 #7
I saw the cross tabs for the poll and they made next to no sense. SaschaHM May 2016 #3
Me either and got this artilce off Hillary's site.. Iamaartist May 2016 #4
I gave up, I agree, very confusing. Starry Messenger May 2016 #18
Senator Obama lost California in 2008 to Hillary Clinton and still won the primaries then went on to BlueCaliDem May 2016 #5
Hi Aloha, BlueCali~ Just yesterday there were polls that Cha May 2016 #6
Yep. Quite a change, indeed, and for me, suspect. It's what they've been doing from the get-go: BlueCaliDem May 2016 #11
Ohhh, Thank you for that.. yeah, that's what I don't miss about not watching Cha May 2016 #12
You're welcome, Cha! I don't really like watching M$M either, but I *do* want to know what false BlueCaliDem May 2016 #19
The Netherlands! What were you doing over there. if I may ask? Cha May 2016 #32
Of course you may ask! When I was 14, my fatherm, an immigrant from the Netherlands, decided to go BlueCaliDem May 2016 #33
Oh wow.. that's sounds like a really wonderful adventure.. Cha May 2016 #34
Thanks, Cha, although it didn't feel like a wonderful adventure at the time since we couldn't BlueCaliDem May 2016 #36
Right.. thanks to my Australian son-in-law and my Filipina daughter-in-law.. Cha May 2016 #37
Hill will win CA, no question. stopbush May 2016 #8
I know you predicted Nevada by 5%! Cha May 2016 #35
The polls have been very good for Hillary here in CA, and I think they will hold up. stopbush May 2016 #38
Excitement reigns! thank you! Cha May 2016 #39
Yes, I did, but my instincts were off in a few other states. stopbush May 2016 #41
I know I felt better that night because of your analysis based on your Cha May 2016 #43
Yup. There is too much of a spread in the other polls. BIGTIME outlier. RBInMaine May 2016 #44
WA enid602 May 2016 #9
We should see what other polls show WI_DEM May 2016 #10
I posted re: that poll, as well. I did a little digging and the numbers don't really make sense. TwilightZone May 2016 #13
No offense to our California friends but it should be over before California liberal N proud May 2016 #15
Absolutely NO offense taken, especially when you consider that the CA Dem Party allows for a semi- BlueCaliDem May 2016 #21
Not a very credible poll texstad79 May 2016 #16
Public Policy Institute Koinos May 2016 #17
I'm really curious to see what 538 does when they update. TwilightZone May 2016 #20
After adding this poll, her "polls-only forecast" is 95%. Koinos May 2016 #23
Thanks, hadn't seen the update. TwilightZone May 2016 #25
My guess is that Hillary will win by no less than 5%. Koinos May 2016 #26
I think that's pretty safe. TwilightZone May 2016 #29
The thing is the demographics works against Sanders Legends303 May 2016 #22
Sanders has no pull with minority voters, he has no pull with rank-n-file Ds (and there are a lot stopbush May 2016 #40
SurveyUSA came out with a poll the same day showing Clinton up by 18%, and.... George II May 2016 #24
and two days ago Survey USA gave Hillary an 18 point leads over Bernie. We need more data to get a still_one May 2016 #27
We will have to wait....and hope she wins so his ego will go away... Iamaartist May 2016 #28
Of course. Don't we all in the Hillary Group feel that way still_one May 2016 #30
Didn't Sanders say that the west coast was favorable to him? LiberalFighter May 2016 #31
Well, the west coast of Russia. stopbush May 2016 #42

TwilightZone

(25,471 posts)
14. RCP only has two from this month. One is this poll, the other is at +18
Thu May 26, 2016, 10:14 AM
May 2016

All over the place. Looking at the data, I think this one's an outlier, but not 100% sure.

SaschaHM

(2,897 posts)
3. I saw the cross tabs for the poll and they made next to no sense.
Thu May 26, 2016, 09:02 AM
May 2016

She was beating Bernie by 9 points among hispanics, and 6 points among white voters and yet, they only had her up by 2 points. "Other" must really shift towards Bernie.

BlueCaliDem

(15,438 posts)
5. Senator Obama lost California in 2008 to Hillary Clinton and still won the primaries then went on to
Thu May 26, 2016, 09:35 AM
May 2016

win the general election by 53%.

Since Republicans damn well know they won't win California no matter what, I'm certain plenty of them will heed the call to crossover and vote for the current loser in the Democratic Party primary just to stick a finger in Hillary's eye.

I'm getting really sick and tired of seeing negative reporting on Hillary Clinton who is getting, what I now call, the "2012 Obama treatment" with far more negative reporting by all U.S. media than Republicans will ever "enjoy".

Clearly, both the Cons and the so-called Liberals in our news media are doing their damnedest to bludgeon Hillary Clinton and are then putting out one poll after the other to see if their concerted effort is working in order to frame the narrative. Clearly, the Hunting of the Clintons has begun already with the most ridiculous "hot news items" they can currently come up with, using a (by Republicans) leaked State Dpt report and making it sound worse than it is.

Cha

(297,275 posts)
6. Hi Aloha, BlueCali~ Just yesterday there were polls that
Thu May 26, 2016, 09:43 AM
May 2016

showed Hillary winning by around 9%.. not that I trusted it to not waver.. but, this is quite a change.

Darn! And, I know she's going to get the Nom really soon.. I just wanted her to Win Cali.

BlueCaliDem

(15,438 posts)
11. Yep. Quite a change, indeed, and for me, suspect. It's what they've been doing from the get-go:
Thu May 26, 2016, 10:03 AM
May 2016

putting out polls that show Hillary Clinton's lead with "yuge" margins thereby creating a false narrative, report something negative, ad nauseam, and in the worst possible way, then create new polls to show her numbers having fallen big time, and then reporting that she's "lost the trust of the American voter". Pravda would've been envious of the U.S. propaganda machine infesting this country.

If we can get all Democrats - true Democrats - in California to come out and vote in these primaries (only 19% of registered Californians voted in 2014 and Democrats still won, so we'll see) then we can counter the faux-Dems and Operation Chaos 2016 "Dems" voting for BS.

My group of 41 have already sent out our ballots for her last Monday, so she has 41 votes (and I don't know how many more that my group have canvassed for her amongst their family and friends) secured for her.

Cha

(297,275 posts)
12. Ohhh, Thank you for that.. yeah, that's what I don't miss about not watching
Thu May 26, 2016, 10:12 AM
May 2016

m$m.. they never change Except to get worse.

My sister in San Diego mailed her ballot in the other day.. Thank you for your 41!

My daughter was born in San Diego.. I want the Win! My son was born in Philly!

WI_DEM.. said this will be the poll to watch for Cali..

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1107&pid=145551

BlueCaliDem

(15,438 posts)
19. You're welcome, Cha! I don't really like watching M$M either, but I *do* want to know what false
Thu May 26, 2016, 10:59 AM
May 2016

stories they're reporting on Democrats - just to keep up to date. However, I do need to watch my blood-pressure.

About 95% of what they report is, not surprisingly, from the Republican p.o.v. Even their reports on Trump the Clown is from the Republican Party's p.o.v. since they dislike him with a passion. Watch for the change of reportage when Republicans unite behind this joke of a presidential candidate. It will be gradual but it will happen. Then it's going to be all sweet-talk for Trump the Joke all the way to the last week before the November election.

My daughter was born in San Diego.. I want the Win! My son was born in Philly!


lol! Cha the traveler! Well, my first born son and my third child, my daughter, were born in Arnhem and Almere-Stad, the Netherlands, respectfully, and my middle-child (son) was born in Duarte, California, so I guess we have that in common, too. lol

I saw WI_Dem's post, and also read Koinos' post just below that the PPIC leans Republican, so I'm not all too worried that our gal will win California.

Cha

(297,275 posts)
32. The Netherlands! What were you doing over there. if I may ask?
Thu May 26, 2016, 03:51 PM
May 2016

We were living in California and on vacation is Philly when that happened.

our babies all grown up now.

BlueCaliDem

(15,438 posts)
33. Of course you may ask! When I was 14, my fatherm, an immigrant from the Netherlands, decided to go
Thu May 26, 2016, 05:14 PM
May 2016

back. I went to high school there (had to learn the language and it wasn't easy!).

I lived there for a few years and met my husband there and had my son there, too. Then he immigrated and came with me to California and we arrived one day after the Los Angeles Olympics had started in '84, and in '86 my second son was born and then my husband got homesick so we went back to the Netherlands where, four years later, my daughter was born. When she was three years old, we returned to California when my sister got really sick (she passed at 30 years old a year to the day later). And we've been here ever since.

And according to the INS laws, all three of my children are natural born Americans and have been Democrats from the moment they had become 18. And yes, they're all grown up and living their own happy lives.

Cha

(297,275 posts)
34. Oh wow.. that's sounds like a really wonderful adventure..
Thu May 26, 2016, 05:22 PM
May 2016

I'm so happy for you and you international family, BlueCali~

BlueCaliDem

(15,438 posts)
36. Thanks, Cha, although it didn't feel like a wonderful adventure at the time since we couldn't
Thu May 26, 2016, 05:25 PM
May 2016

make up our minds which country we'd like to live in. But we decided the U.S. was still the best for our children, and we haven't regretted it since...the last time we came in '95, that is.

Same to you and your intranational family, Cha!

Cha

(297,275 posts)
37. Right.. thanks to my Australian son-in-law and my Filipina daughter-in-law..
Thu May 26, 2016, 05:34 PM
May 2016

we're internation, too!

Glad you're in Cali and @ least bi-lingual.

stopbush

(24,396 posts)
38. The polls have been very good for Hillary here in CA, and I think they will hold up.
Thu May 26, 2016, 05:37 PM
May 2016

Trump securing the delegates he needs to be the R nominee means that it's time for Ds to get SERIOUSLY SERIOUS, and that means to get behind Hillary and let Sanders be the also ran who also ran.

I wouldn't be surprised if there's a major move in the uncommitted supers to commit to Hillary before June 7. Hillary could be as little as 20 delegates away from the nomination before the polls open here on June 7.

stopbush

(24,396 posts)
41. Yes, I did, but my instincts were off in a few other states.
Thu May 26, 2016, 05:45 PM
May 2016

Funny, but I thought Hillary would do well in WA and NB, but she got killed in the caucuses, which count. I guess it's a small vindication that she then won those state primaries quite handily, even though they don't count in the delegate allocation.

Cha

(297,275 posts)
43. I know I felt better that night because of your analysis based on your
Thu May 26, 2016, 06:00 PM
May 2016

history in Las Vegas.

I think it's a big vindication that Hillary won the Vote in WA by 53-47 or 46%(I've seen both).. And, Nebraska! Caucuses really do skew.

Now the Washington SuperDs have no valid argument from berns on how.. they must vote for sanders!
The symbolic win took away their talking point.

WI_DEM

(33,497 posts)
10. We should see what other polls show
Thu May 26, 2016, 10:01 AM
May 2016

I think California will be close. But if it is close it is still a loss for Bernie.

liberal N proud

(60,335 posts)
15. No offense to our California friends but it should be over before California
Thu May 26, 2016, 10:32 AM
May 2016

Even with a win, Bernie loses because unless he can take all the delegates, he stands no #%&*( chance.

BlueCaliDem

(15,438 posts)
21. Absolutely NO offense taken, especially when you consider that the CA Dem Party allows for a semi-
Thu May 26, 2016, 11:00 AM
May 2016

open primary election. CA Dem Party needs to close the primary election to only Democratic voters, just like the Republican Party has here.

Koinos

(2,792 posts)
17. Public Policy Institute
Thu May 26, 2016, 10:44 AM
May 2016

538 gives this pollster an "A-" rating, but it also indicates that PPIC leans slightly Republican, for whatever that is worth.

TwilightZone

(25,471 posts)
20. I'm really curious to see what 538 does when they update.
Thu May 26, 2016, 10:59 AM
May 2016

They should be updating their numbers today or tomorrow. I'm interested in what they think of it since it's so far off of the SurveyUSA one done at roughly the same time. They can't both be right.

Koinos

(2,792 posts)
23. After adding this poll, her "polls-only forecast" is 95%.
Thu May 26, 2016, 12:44 PM
May 2016

538 seems to think that SurveyUSA is more reliable. We'll see what happens with polling much closer to June 7.

TwilightZone

(25,471 posts)
25. Thanks, hadn't seen the update.
Thu May 26, 2016, 12:50 PM
May 2016

The SurveyUSA one is getting 5x the weighting, so not putting much faith in the new one at all. 97% polls-plus rating, projecting 61/37.

Works for me. We'll see how it goes in the next week or so.

TwilightZone

(25,471 posts)
29. I think that's pretty safe.
Thu May 26, 2016, 01:05 PM
May 2016

My first thought was that the PPIC poll was an outlier, and digging further, the math still isn't making any sense.

I'm just glad to see that someone who generally knows what they're doing doesn't consider it on par with the SurveyUSA one, either.

Not that it'll matter in the long run as far as the nomination goes, of course. I'd just like to see an easy win in CA to help tone down the nonsense around here. Probably won't help, but one can dream.

 

Legends303

(481 posts)
22. The thing is the demographics works against Sanders
Thu May 26, 2016, 12:23 PM
May 2016

I would be surprised if he won calafornia. It seems unlikely since his momentum is slowly draining.

stopbush

(24,396 posts)
40. Sanders has no pull with minority voters, he has no pull with rank-n-file Ds (and there are a lot
Thu May 26, 2016, 05:40 PM
May 2016

of us in CA), and the youngsters who attend his rallies don't show up at the polls.

PLUS, it's a semi-open primary, and anyone who hasn't changed their party registration to D or NPP by now can't vote in the D primary.

Hillary losing CA would be a real shock. It's not going to happen.

George II

(67,782 posts)
24. SurveyUSA came out with a poll the same day showing Clinton up by 18%, and....
Thu May 26, 2016, 12:45 PM
May 2016

....Project538 gives that one more than four times the weight of the PPIC poll.

still_one

(92,216 posts)
27. and two days ago Survey USA gave Hillary an 18 point leads over Bernie. We need more data to get a
Thu May 26, 2016, 12:59 PM
May 2016

better handle on this, but one the is pretty obvious, no one is gone to garner a +30 point lead over their opponent, and that is what Sanders needs

Most likely the final results will be within a 10 point spread between the candidates

LiberalFighter

(50,942 posts)
31. Didn't Sanders say that the west coast was favorable to him?
Thu May 26, 2016, 01:46 PM
May 2016

YET, he actually lost Washington in a primary.

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