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Starry Messenger

(32,342 posts)
Wed Nov 25, 2015, 06:12 PM Nov 2015

It’s the Hillary Coalition

http://bit.ly/1T569o6



<snip>

Unlike many presidential candidates past and present, Hillary isn’t building relationships from scratch. She’s doesn’t have to plead with various voting blocs to support her because they supported the last guy, he did a great job and she is from the same party. Her long and substantive career has familiarized — and endeared — her to diverse demographic groups. From her first days in public service, Hillary has been a leading national voice for women. As first lady, she developed relationships with constituencies and organizations representing Americans of all walks of life. In the United States Senate, she represented a state with significant Latino, African American, Asian American & Pacific Islander and LGBTQ communities. She doesn’t need a crash course to understand the fabric of America and the policies that impact diverse groups. She doesn’t use a cheat sheet on the names and backgrounds of prominent leaders in key communities. Instead, she draws on her own life experience, her own relationships and her own track record as she talks about how she would build upon the progress President Obama has made.

See: 2008.

Even before the term “Obama Coalition” entered the political lexicon, both Hillary and then-Sen. Obama assembled impressive electoral coalitions that held throughout the 2008 primary campaign. Hillary performed strongest among women, union households, Latinos, LGBTQ and AAPI voters — groups that contributed heavily to the 18 million votes she earned in that election. These groups weren’t voting against then-Sen. Obama (they supported him heavily in two general elections). They were voting for Hillary. Similarly, groups comprising President Obama’s winning primary election coalition — namely young voters, African Americans and white progressives — weren’t voting against Hillary; they were voting for then-Sen. Obama.

There is zero evidence to suggest that Hillary primary voters rejected then-Sen. Obama in the 2008 or 2012 general elections. So after Hillary served as the president’s secretary of state, and as she is on the campaign trail touting President Obama’s achievements and their joint work, there’s even less reason to think that President Obama’s strongest supporters would reject Hillary in 2016. Logic, data, and conversations on the ground say just the opposite. Just look at her whopping 70-point leads among African American voters in South Carolina primary polls.

<snip>

The 2016 electorate’s 18-, 19-, 20- and 21-year olds have never voted before. In fact, they were as young as 10 years old in the 2008 general election. The question is not whether Hillary can convince the same young voters who voted for President Obama to also vote for her. The question is whether Hillary has her own appeal to the new, more diverse, more progressive group of voters who now comprise this age demographic. After travelling to 60 college campuses and meeting young Hillary supporters across the country, I believe that answer is yes. In fact, if there is a single underrated area of support and enthusiasm for Hillary, it’s among America’s youngest voters.

<snip>



6 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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It’s the Hillary Coalition (Original Post) Starry Messenger Nov 2015 OP
YO! bravenak Nov 2015 #1
Not just SC, but her leads nationally among AA's & Hispanics is nothing short of spectacular. Tarheel_Dem Nov 2015 #2
Real world 1 -- DU 0 Starry Messenger Nov 2015 #3
It will be so cool!!!! Walk away Nov 2015 #4
Maybe a sweeping whomping. Thinkingabout Nov 2015 #6
Why not a repeat of 2008? yallerdawg Nov 2015 #5

Tarheel_Dem

(31,241 posts)
2. Not just SC, but her leads nationally among AA's & Hispanics is nothing short of spectacular.
Wed Nov 25, 2015, 06:30 PM
Nov 2015
There is zero evidence to suggest that Hillary primary voters rejected then-Sen. Obama in the 2008 or 2012 general elections. So after Hillary served as the president’s secretary of state, and as she is on the campaign trail touting President Obama’s achievements and their joint work, there’s even less reason to think that President Obama’s strongest supporters would reject Hillary in 2016. Logic, data, and conversations on the ground say just the opposite. Just look at her whopping 70-point leads among African American voters in South Carolina primary polls


yallerdawg

(16,104 posts)
5. Why not a repeat of 2008?
Wed Nov 25, 2015, 08:00 PM
Nov 2015
The biggest change from Hillary’s performance in 2008 to today’s primary landscape is in the South, particularly because of Hillary’s strength among African American voters. In fact, the same non-caucus states where Hillary was trounced in 2008 are the states where she is on track to trounce her primary opponents in 2016. Then-Sen. Obama swept the Deep South by whopping margins over Hillary. Eight years later, she’s primed to rack up big delegate margins as South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana all vote within 11 days of each other starting on February 27. This projected success shows just how much the Hillary Coalition has grown since 2008, and it’s a demographic strength she will carry into the general election should she be the Democratic nominee.
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