Hillary Clinton

Godhumor

(6,437 posts) Thu Dec 31, 2015, 04:50 PM Dec 2015

Predictive Markets have HRC's odds at winning Iowa at 82%

I'd say that is a pretty solid expectation for us winning the first primary:

http://predictwise.com/politics/2016-president-primaries/

HRC - 82%
BS - 18%
MOM - 0% (poor guy)

18 replies

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Predictive Markets have HRC's odds at winning Iowa at 82% (Original Post) Godhumor Dec 2015 OP

My guess is they think we will win all the primary states upaloopa Dec 2015 #1

They have Bernie as a slight favorite to win NH comradebillyboy Dec 2015 #17

Don't think so! Happy day! Yupy Dec 2015 #2

Yes Hillary will Win Iowa! Cha Dec 2015 #14

So how long until we get enough delegates to put a spike in the other sides chances? upaloopa Dec 2015 #3

I have always maintained that if Sanders doesn't win NH, he is effectively done Godhumor Dec 2015 #4

Sounds good to me. upaloopa Dec 2015 #5

I only hope you're right about that support NastyRiffraff Dec 2015 #6

Yep wildeyed Dec 2015 #7

Probably so, although the timing won't change. Bleacher Creature Dec 2015 #13

I have been following Intrade and now Predictwise for a long time Gothmog Dec 2015 #8

Don't want to make Bernie nervous but we think Hillary will win Iowa FloridaBlues Dec 2015 #9

We will continue to keep our eye on the focus of winning Thinkingabout Dec 2015 #10

This message was self-deleted by its author Helen Borg Dec 2015 #11

Helen: SCantiGOP Dec 2015 #12

.. Cha Dec 2015 #15

This is awesome.. the stronger the showing in Iowa.. the better chance to win Cha Dec 2015 #16

Odds fleabiscuit Jan 2016 #18

upaloopa

(11,417 posts)

1. My guess is they think we will win all the primary states

Reply to Godhumor (Original post)

Thu Dec 31, 2015, 04:53 PM

Dec 2015

comradebillyboy

(10,154 posts)

17. They have Bernie as a slight favorite to win NH

Reply to upaloopa (Reply #1)

Thu Dec 31, 2015, 10:43 PM

Dec 2015

and the RCP average polling shows him with a 6 point edge there at this time.

Yupy

(154 posts)

2. Don't think so! Happy day!

Reply to Godhumor (Original post)

Thu Dec 31, 2015, 04:53 PM

Dec 2015

Cha

(297,275 posts)

14. Yes Hillary will Win Iowa!

Reply to Yupy (Reply #2)

Thu Dec 31, 2015, 10:09 PM

Dec 2015

upaloopa

(11,417 posts)

3. So how long until we get enough delegates to put a spike in the other sides chances?

Reply to Godhumor (Original post)

Thu Dec 31, 2015, 04:56 PM

Dec 2015

If we win IA, NH, SC, NV and Super Tuesday I'd say it would be time for Bernie to give back the rest of the money and go home.

Godhumor

(6,437 posts)

4. I have always maintained that if Sanders doesn't win NH, he is effectively done

Reply to upaloopa (Reply #3)

Thu Dec 31, 2015, 04:58 PM

Dec 2015

And i don't think he wins NH without a strong showing in Iowa.

upaloopa

(11,417 posts)

5. Sounds good to me.

Reply to Godhumor (Reply #4)

Thu Dec 31, 2015, 05:04 PM

Dec 2015

Get this whole board back to supporting Dems for being Dems again.

NastyRiffraff

(12,448 posts)

6. I only hope you're right about that support

Reply to upaloopa (Reply #5)

Thu Dec 31, 2015, 05:27 PM

Dec 2015

but I have my doubts about some people on DU. Happily, DU is not the country!

wildeyed

(11,243 posts)

7. Yep

Reply to Godhumor (Reply #4)

Thu Dec 31, 2015, 05:30 PM

Dec 2015

NH is a must win.

He could get away with a stronger than expected showing in IA, but as far as I can tell his surrogates are not managing expectations at all. They are still pushing a come-from-behind for the win narrative.

No matter what, he is going to get clobbered in SC.

Bleacher Creature

(11,257 posts)

13. Probably so, although the timing won't change.

Reply to Godhumor (Reply #4)

Thu Dec 31, 2015, 07:43 PM

Dec 2015

Win or lose in NH, he's going to lose badly in SC and NV, but in either case there's no sense in him dropping out before Super Tuesday. Losing 10 out of 11 on 3/1 will be the decisive blow either way.