Hillary Clinton defeats Donald Trump 338-200 in Electoral College projection

I seldom see any articles about the electoral collage. Interesting. Hope it is true.


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Hillary Clinton defeats Donald Trump 338-200 in Electoral College projection http://www.examiner.com/article/hillary-clinton-defeats-donald-trump-338-200-electoral-college-projection … via @examinercom




January 19, 2016 9:12 AM MST
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Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump by a large margin in the Electoral College projection.
Photo by Sean Rayford/Getty Images

The 2016 presidential primary voting will get started in two weeks with the Iowa Caucus, but the end goal for every candidate is the Electoral College. After winning their party's primary a candidate must win 270 Electoral College votes to move in to the White House. The favorite, thus far, is Hillary Clinton who leads not only within her party but also in Electoral College polling. This projection is for those political junkies among us who want a prediction of the 2016 Electoral College before one should reasonably be provided. This projection gives 338 Electoral College votes to Hillary Clinton in 2016, compared to 200 Electoral College Vote for Donald Trump in a hypothetical matchup. The projection includes all polling available recently released, which at this point is rare but existent. This projection includes the most recent polling data available, including a new national poll released over the last 48 hours from NBC/Wall Street Journal. A map of this projection can be seen here.

So how are these projections made?

First, we need to look at how Democrats and Republicans performed in the last three presidential elections. While past results do not always indicate future performance, the recent presidential elections give us a fairly good idea of how the demographics of each state favor or disfavor each party. More emphasis is put on the last presidential election in 2012 since that date is obviously more recent and, therefore, more likely to be accurate.

Secondly, we need to look to how each state is trending. Trends are determined by looking at the last three presidential elections and also the changing demographics of each state...............