Hillary Clinton
Related: About this forumAll of this silliness for +1 or +2 delegates
The magic win doesn't really matter, does it? Delegates are awarded proportionately. So we are really talking about a gain of 2 or so delegates for either winner based on what we expect the percentages to be.
The super delegate number (361 for Clinton vs. 8 or so for Sanders) is a bigger deal. Oh, I know the "momentum" talking point but it really doesn't matter. If Clinton wins Iowa she goes on to continue her win in SC. If Sanders wins Iowa he can claim momentum but the voters in SC don't want him. That's already established. Plus, the super delegates want Clinton.
Come March, this bad boy is over. Clinton wins.
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)Yup
displacedtexan
(15,696 posts)Hey, it worked for The Big Dog.
William769
(55,147 posts)I for one will be very happy with Hillary setting the pace, which I suspect she will.
Stuckinthebush
(10,845 posts)If she wins, Sanders will use his NH win as the magic momentum. If she loses he will say that this is his momentum.
In reality, SC and super tuesday states aren't going to change much due to demographics.
But it will be very nice to have the Clinton win!
William769
(55,147 posts)Rose Siding
(32,623 posts)Not for nothing, imo, since the media's objective is An Exciting Horse Race.
Also, there's the campaign moral factor to consider. The volunteers have worked so hard, it would be great to have some tangibly good return on their efforts.
BigGLiberal
(102 posts)Stuckinthebush
(10,845 posts)I posted this yesterday. I don't see a path for Sanders.
appal_jack
(3,813 posts)Superdelegates may always (up through the convention) change their allegiance, and have a habit of backing the leader of a given moment. Their stated preferences mean nothing this early in the race.
Plus, it might be nice to let the voters actually, y'know, vote first before you arrogantly declare a coronation.
-app
Thinkingabout
(30,058 posts)The proof will come after the Carolinas and there will not be split the delegate counts. Hillary's numbers will start jumping and she will achieve the needed count and then on to the convention where the actual delegates will vote.
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)These two states are tailor-made for him. The rest of the United States is COMPLETELY different from Iowa and New Hampshire.
Stuckinthebush
(10,845 posts)Spot on.
drray23
(7,633 posts)However a win is not solely about delegates in this case. its a way to set the narrative and get momentum. I am pretty confident Hillary will win and Bernie's revolution will deflate like a balloon.