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Stuckinthebush

(10,845 posts)
Mon Feb 1, 2016, 05:59 PM Feb 2016

All of this silliness for +1 or +2 delegates

The magic win doesn't really matter, does it? Delegates are awarded proportionately. So we are really talking about a gain of 2 or so delegates for either winner based on what we expect the percentages to be.

The super delegate number (361 for Clinton vs. 8 or so for Sanders) is a bigger deal. Oh, I know the "momentum" talking point but it really doesn't matter. If Clinton wins Iowa she goes on to continue her win in SC. If Sanders wins Iowa he can claim momentum but the voters in SC don't want him. That's already established. Plus, the super delegates want Clinton.

Come March, this bad boy is over. Clinton wins.

14 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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All of this silliness for +1 or +2 delegates (Original Post) Stuckinthebush Feb 2016 OP
Come March, this bad boy is over. Clinton wins. workinclasszero Feb 2016 #1
And she can always become Madame Comeback Kid! displacedtexan Feb 2016 #13
Iowa sets the momentum. William769 Feb 2016 #2
I think the momentum line is overrated this time Stuckinthebush Feb 2016 #3
We will just have to agree to disagree. William769 Feb 2016 #7
It's good for surragotes to have points to dispute the narritive Rose Siding Feb 2016 #9
Sanders can come in first in every state and still won't have the delegates to win. BigGLiberal Feb 2016 #4
True! Stuckinthebush Feb 2016 #6
How very Democratic of you (NOT)! appal_jack Feb 2016 #14
Actually splitting the delegates will be just that, they are split. Thinkingabout Feb 2016 #5
No Worries! Hakuna Matata! Bernie will not be the nominee. NurseJackie Feb 2016 #8
Ain't that the truth! Stuckinthebush Feb 2016 #10
technically you areright. drray23 Feb 2016 #11
I really want her to win Iowa.n/t asuhornets Feb 2016 #12

William769

(55,147 posts)
2. Iowa sets the momentum.
Mon Feb 1, 2016, 06:14 PM
Feb 2016

I for one will be very happy with Hillary setting the pace, which I suspect she will.

Stuckinthebush

(10,845 posts)
3. I think the momentum line is overrated this time
Mon Feb 1, 2016, 06:18 PM
Feb 2016

If she wins, Sanders will use his NH win as the magic momentum. If she loses he will say that this is his momentum.

In reality, SC and super tuesday states aren't going to change much due to demographics.

But it will be very nice to have the Clinton win!

Rose Siding

(32,623 posts)
9. It's good for surragotes to have points to dispute the narritive
Mon Feb 1, 2016, 06:45 PM
Feb 2016

Not for nothing, imo, since the media's objective is An Exciting Horse Race.

Also, there's the campaign moral factor to consider. The volunteers have worked so hard, it would be great to have some tangibly good return on their efforts.

 

appal_jack

(3,813 posts)
14. How very Democratic of you (NOT)!
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 12:41 AM
Feb 2016

Superdelegates may always (up through the convention) change their allegiance, and have a habit of backing the leader of a given moment. Their stated preferences mean nothing this early in the race.

Plus, it might be nice to let the voters actually, y'know, vote first before you arrogantly declare a coronation.

-app

Thinkingabout

(30,058 posts)
5. Actually splitting the delegates will be just that, they are split.
Mon Feb 1, 2016, 06:20 PM
Feb 2016

The proof will come after the Carolinas and there will not be split the delegate counts. Hillary's numbers will start jumping and she will achieve the needed count and then on to the convention where the actual delegates will vote.

NurseJackie

(42,862 posts)
8. No Worries! Hakuna Matata! Bernie will not be the nominee.
Mon Feb 1, 2016, 06:33 PM
Feb 2016

These two states are tailor-made for him. The rest of the United States is COMPLETELY different from Iowa and New Hampshire.

drray23

(7,633 posts)
11. technically you areright.
Mon Feb 1, 2016, 07:58 PM
Feb 2016

However a win is not solely about delegates in this case. its a way to set the narrative and get momentum. I am pretty confident Hillary will win and Bernie's revolution will deflate like a balloon.

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