Hillary Clinton
Related: About this forumNH New Franklin Pierce Herald Poll! (Hillary Clinton Group)
http://www.bostonherald.com/news/us_politics/2016/02/franklin_pierce_herald_poll_clinton_sanders_just_7_points_apartSeven. Points. In my old idle guessing game, that puts the Sanders campaign in "Danger of Serious National Shutout" territory once we pass NH.
Now, NH is notoriously hard to poll, but Mrs. Clinton does have a reputation as the Comeback Kid in NH, as well as an excellent ground game.
From the article:
The Vermont socialist senator was beating the former Secretary of State by a 57-37 percent margin right before the caucuses, but he now clings to just a 51-44 percent lead, according to the new Franklin Pierce-Herald poll of 407 likely Democratic primary voters conducted Feb. 2-6.
Clinton's favorable rating increased to 75 percent since Iowa and she also regained some of her aura of inevitability, with 61 percent saying she'll be the nominee while just 27 percent picking Sanders - a 13 point margin increase since last weekend.
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)Go Hillary!
Iliyah
(25,111 posts)Lucinda
(31,170 posts)Treant
(1,968 posts)I tend to ignore the polls themselves and eyeball the trends. And right now, Sanders has thrown away a 30 point lead in NH for something between 7 and 15 depending on the poll.
If--huge if--Clinton overperforms like she did in 2008, that would be Clinton +3 to Sanders +5. Huge if. Rilly, rilly yuuuuge.
Thinkingabout
(30,058 posts)The closer she gets the more delegates for her and more away from Sanders. He already has a big climb with the number of super delegates who have endorsed Hillary. She will start rising in delegate count shortly and when she gets the magic number it will be over for Sanders.
OKNancy
(41,832 posts)for the Democratic primaries
Dragon Lefty
(10 posts)Do you think she could pull ahead in the 3 days, or just close the gap?
Treant
(1,968 posts)With proportionate delegates, a win isn't critical except for the narrative ("Sanders Campaign in Serious Trouble" .
Personally, if it's anything under Sanders +10, I'm thrilled. It's a stronghold state for him, and anything that tight means he's actually in Serious Trouble even if they don't admit it or say it.
Historic NY
(37,449 posts)give it time to marinate. The Sec. is in Flint today to add emphasis to the water crisis which she brought to the closer of the Jan 17, debate.
peggysue2
(10,830 posts)New to the site and to the forum but I'm really glad to see a spot in the Universe where Dems for Hillary Clinton can express their support without being beaten over the head or immediately shouted down. What's up with that???
As a Democratic voter, I want the Dems to keep the WH and make up the losses we've taken elsewhere--in the Senate and House, of course, but in those state legislatures that have done so much damage to progress in women's issues and civil rights, etc. We cannot do that without retaining the WH. I like Bernie Sanders but there's only 1 electable candidate and that's Hillary Clinton who has spent her career fighting and winning change for people everywhere. Hillary's trip to Flint, Michigan today is a prime example of that spirit and underscores what happens when the bottom line for government officials is dollar and cents, not the welfare of its constituency. Our infrastructure is falling to pieces, particularly in poor communities. Flint is the tip of the iceberg. Hillary Clinton is sharing a chunk her donations for state and local elections, so we can reset the balance and begin to win the state/local contests that affect the lives of so many people.
These numbers from Franklin & Pierce are an indicator of what a fierce warrior HRC truly is and has always been. She can take it to the GOP and win the election for the Democratic Party. That's Numero Uno for me. And I suspect for everyone in this particular room. If we want to address social & economic inequities, we have to win first. There are no perfect candidates out there. But there are warriors. We have one who happens to be a woman. And that's a very good thing!
Treant
(1,968 posts)and to the Hillary Clinton Group, Peggy Sue!
Yeah, we're kind of restricted here at the moment. Moving outside this safe space is opening yourself to some really unpleasant commentary just for supporting Hillary Clinton for President. If you have a strong stomach, feel free. Personally, right now I'm staying here.
Post Super Tuesday, that should start to change. 2008 was less rancorous, but not much different.
Mrs. Clinton's encouragement (via support AND money) to downstream candidates is one huge reason I support her! In addition to her foreign policy chops, of course, and a dozen other things.
peggysue2
(10,830 posts)Thanks for the welcome, treant and shenmue. Appreciated. Nice to swim in warm waters.
Btw, I'm not looking for a win in NH. It would be nice. But if Hillary is able to shave this down to single digits, I'll consider it an impressive result. Beyond that? Then we're into epic proportions, leaving little room for argument and/or angst.
SunSeeker
(51,569 posts)SunSeeker
(51,569 posts)All the sweeter it will be when the votes come in.
William769
(55,147 posts)Tarheel_Dem
(31,234 posts)neighbor thing will push him over the top. I've also reconciled that NH hasn't picked a Democratic POTUS since Carter. I'm reminded that Bill Clinton lost NH to Paul Tsongas, who was also a neighbor of NH. Whatever happened to Tsongas? You'll also remember that Barack Obama lost NH to Hillary in '08. We know how that turned out.
And for the record, George W lost to John McCain in NH. NH doesn't have a very good track record of picking nominees or Presidents.
CajunBlazer
(5,648 posts)Including those where Sanders is well ahead. NH is an extremely hard state to poll accurately because not only do residents of the Granite state tend to make up their minds late, they can switch from voting in the Democratic primary to the GOP primary and visa versa at the last minute.
That said I think that Bernie get a much smaller victory than expected and the will hurt his "momentum" going forward, though I fully expect the big mo to switch sides anyway in Nevada and South Carolina.
fleabiscuit
(4,542 posts)yallerdawg
(16,104 posts)Come through each and every time!
And the women are going to turn out for Hillary - why jeopardize all eternity?
pandr32
(11,588 posts)Sanders needed to clean Clinton's clock in Iowa and particularly New Hampshire where he was widely favored to win by a large margin. The Clinton clock is ticking and as time brings us closer to the big day (Sanders already lost a hoped-for-win in Iowa) it is looking like he can't pull it off. This means that his chance to be the leader of a political revolution is a Sanders fantasy.
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fleabiscuit
(4,542 posts)Stuckinthebush
(10,845 posts)Lol! They are "worried" about fraud and dirty tricks!
My god this is hilarious.
FloridaBlues
(4,008 posts)I like this Hillary surge in NH. Even to come within 5-7 points would be great making up 20 points in 7 days.
Treant
(1,968 posts)From the trend leading toward Bernie (it doesn't, Bernie's lead has eroded seriously in NH and that shows across multiple pollsters and multiple samples), to the White House intervening to defraud the voters, to networks discontinuing exit polls and them doing their own.
bluestateguy
(44,173 posts)Only one election eve poll forecast a Hillary win in NH in 2008. All others had Obama winning by a little or a lot.
She could squeeze this one out, or lose big. Or somewhere in between.
BlueMTexpat
(15,369 posts)The polls are all over the place, but what I find encouraging is that the more recent polls show Hillary making up ground.
Also from the link:
...
Sanders continues to crush Clinton among New Hampshire independents and liberals, but the former first lady now leads her rival among registered Democrats by 51 to 46 percent.
If those Indies vote in the GOP primary - as they often do - Hillary might just eke out a win. Dems have her back.