Prediction: Minorities Will Put Down Bernie’s Revolution

We have learned that the country’s changing demographics will have a major affect on future Presidential elections, perhaps starting this year. Minority segments or population of the United States are growing more rapidly then their non-Hispanic white counterpart and since minorities usually vote heavily for Democratic candidates, the GOP is expected to be increasingly at a disadvantage. However, the country’s minority voters are also expected to be a major factor in the 2016 Democratic primaries and caucuses. Hispanic and Afro American Democratic voters in particular are in large part less liberal than their white brethren and most don’t appear to be enlisting for Bernie Sanders’ revolution.

In Iowa minorities make up only 9 percent of the Democratic voting population, so as expected, entrance polls at the recent caucuses had only small groups of minorities to sample. However, if the data from those samples is accurate, Bernie is fortunate that minorities didn’t make up a greater percentage of the Iowa electorate during the caucuses. He had the backing of only 33% of the minorities who caucused while over 60% voted for Hillary Clinton.

That statistic will not matter a great deal in New Hampshire (February 9th) where minorities make up just 5% of the Democratic voters, but it doesn’t bode well for Sanders in the thirteen follow on state primaries and caucuses scheduled between February 20th and March 1st. A week after New Hampshire is the Nevada caucus (2/20). Nevada’s Hispanics make up one-fifth of the state’s voters. The state also has sizeable African-American and Asian-American populations so overall minorities make up 39% of the population of Nevada. Since most of Nevada’s minorities vote Democratic, they will make up an even larger percentage of the voters in the state’s Democratic caucuses.

Next on February 27th comes the South Carolina Democratic primary where minorities are expected to make up fully 55% of the voters. Then, four days later are the so called “Southeastern Conference Primaries”, consisting of 11 states and the territory of American Samoa, which are all scheduled for February first. The states participating will be: Alabama, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, and Virginia. Obviously this set of primaries is heavily weighted with Southern states, hence the nickname.

All seven of the Southern states have very large Afro American and/or Hispanic populations. Yes, I am including Oklahoma whose voting population is 27.8% minorities. In addition, the white Democrats in these Southern states are more moderate in their political views than their more liberal counterparts in Iowa and especially in New Hampshire and that does not bode well for Bernie Sanders. .......

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