Hillary Clinton
Related: About this forumAll things considered, right now I'm very happy with where our campaign is tonight:
For months we've know that the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary would be difficult, and they were. In fact, of the 50 states and several territories, we knew that Iowa, New Hampshire, and Vermont would most likely be losers for Clinton.
But Hillary came out of Iowa with a lead of 2 pledged delegates, and tonight she'll probably wind up with about 4 less pledged delegates than Sanders.
So, with two of the three toughest states over and done with, Hillary is trailing Sanders by a net of 2 delegates, 35-33*.
Now the campaign can look ahead to the remaining 48 states where she has significant leads in dozens of them.
Next is Nevada, where she's leading in the polls by ~ 50% to 30% (and Sanders has alienated the union vote), after that South Carolina where she's leading by ~ 63% to 33%.
Going into Super Tuesday she should have a lead of about 20 pledged delegates, and she's currently positioned to win all but Vermont, and 100 more delegates than Sanders.
Yes, tonight was disappointing but not a surprise.
With the Superdelegates, Clinton is still ahead--and she just snagged six of NH's superdelegates to Bernie's 0.
http://cookpolitical.com/story/9179
If you chart it out, she's performing 8 delegates ahead of target*. And as you noted, 2 of 3 of the worst states are behind her.
* I printed this and I'm writing down totals as we go so I can play along at home. As long as her totals remain at or above these levels, the superdelegates will push her over the top.
mcar
(42,334 posts)Thanks George!
Cha
(297,304 posts)Perfect song, George... thank you!
Another~ This is Hillary's Fight Song!
Mahalo for the inspiring post~
George II
(67,782 posts)....of "proportional" primaries.
Just as in Iowa, where Sanders got just about the same number of raw votes as Clinton, but got 2 less delegates, last night although he got almost 60% of the vote, he got 13 delegates to Clinton's 11!
Many people don't understand that regardless of the level of votes in some districts, it doesn't earn more delegates. Sanders could have gotten 90% to Clinton's 10%, an exaggeration, that only got him one delegate. On the other hand, Clinton could have won another district by 50.5% to 49.5%, and got one delegate.
I'm sure the Clinton campaign is very happy with the delegate count, regardless of the actual votes.
So, after the tough states of Iowa and New Hampshire, two of Sanders' strongest, delegate-wise they are tied 35-35.
On to Nevada and South Carolina for big wins.
Cha
(297,304 posts)George II
(67,782 posts)...and look at the actual numbers. Even at 13-11, Sanders would have had to have gotten some of his 60% in some of his weaker areas in NH to have flipped another delegate or two.
As in Iowa, Sanders was very strong in a few areas of the state, but his support was lukewarm in many other areas of the state. That results in lots of raw votes, not delegates. On the other hand Clinton's support was more evenly distributed across the state.
I am VERY happy with where we are this morning.
Treant
(1,968 posts)44 delegates in IA, 23 went to Clinton, 21 to Sanders.
24 delegates in NH, 11 went to Clinton, 13 to Sanders.
68 total delegates, 34 to Clinton, 34 to Sanders.
Or, New Hampshire was a virtual tie, just like IA was, obviously. Sanders couldn't pull the clear win out in his home territory and merely pulled even.
George II
(67,782 posts)....that's what happens as they count up the last votes in districts. Sanders (at least now) has 15 and Clinton 9. What further confuses the issue of the actual count is that some news outlets include Super Delegates, others don't
So, in NH right now it stands at Sanders 15 (15 total) and Clinton 9 (15 total) In Iowa it's Sanders 21 (21) and Clinton 23 (27)
Clinton has a 6 delegate lead overall with 6 Super Delegates uncommitted right now.
No matter how you slice it, there are still about 4,400 delegates to be determined.
sheshe2
(83,790 posts)72DejaVu
(1,545 posts)They've hit their high water mark.
Stuckinthebush
(10,845 posts)The Supers for her will never switch support.
It's already a rout.
George II
(67,782 posts)So Clinton lost by six, combined with her 2 delegate lead in Iowa that's now Clinton 31 to 35, but with Super Delegates it's 41 to 35.
ismnotwasm
(41,989 posts)If nothing else, people are going to learn the nuts and bolts of Ametican politics this primary, except, of cours]ce, those who indulge in creative speculation