The Day of Reconning Is Approaching
Everyone has to wake up sooner or later and dreams of magical unicorns have a tendency to evaporate in the cold clear light of reality every morning. For the Bernie Sanders campaign the wake up call has already been set and the phone is about to ring.
The Nevada caucuses, except for a poll by a Republican organization with questionable accuracy and polling methods, there is no recent poll data. The caucus process is so difficult to predict, the next poll is probably going the official caucus results on 2/20.
However, for those willing to spend a little time doing research, the probable outcome of 12 polls over four days starting 2/27 is pretty clear. Recently some new poll data has become available for quite a few of these 12 state primaries in it appears that the Bernie Sanders campaign is in deep and serious trouble going forward.
The following are the poll data from the most recent polls for those states:
2/27/16
South Caroline (50 delegates) - avg. 5 polls since 2/10/15 Clinton +21.2
3/1/16
Alabama (58 delegates) – no recent polls, compare to other southern states
American Samoa (10 delegates) – no recent polls
Arkansas (37 delegates) - poll -2/4/16 - Clinton +32
Colorado (77 delegates) – poll in November – Hillary +28
Georgia (112 delegates) – poll 2/4/16 – Hillary +41
Massachusetts (121 delegates) – poll in November – Hillary +25
Minnesota (94 delegates) – poll 1/20/16 – Hillary +34
Oklahoma (42 delegates) - poll 2/9/16 – Hillary +16
Tennessee (77 delegates) – poll in November – Hillary +20
Texas (237 delegates) – poll 1/26/16 – Hillary +34
Vermont (23 delegates) - no recent polls
Virginia (112 delegates) –poll 2/14 – Hillary +14
I have also gone though the available polls for the rest of the states on the primary and caucus calendars and Hillary way ahead in most and not behind in any state.
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Will get Sanders a win. All you need is faith in the revolution.
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