I can get busy with my day now with a big smile on my face and a spring in my step!

Great 1-state strategy for your "revolution" Need some ice for that burn?

Now it makes sense, all that wailing and flailing and teeth grinding over Iowa.

Get this campaign back on track. Most of the SEC primary states look good too. We just have to worry about a few Midwest and northeast caucus states and we should be okay.



Through all the hoopla, we can't forget 2 essential facts.

1- Hillary Clinton is the overwhelming favorite to win the nomination. The upcoming states will prove this.

2-Bernie Sanders ain't no Barack Obama. He can't build the same coalition. Hillary's overwhelming support among African Americans proves this. You can't win the nomination with young people and first time independent voters alone. In the modern Democratic Party you can't win the nomination without minority support.

Sometimes we get lost on the difference between battles and wars. Sanders has won a single battle (New Hampshire). Hillary will win the war. (Delegates/Nomination.)

once he got past the "Yes we can" mantra part of the campaign.

Bernie is stuck on the "Wall Street poisons everything!" meme. His message is getting stale, rapidly.

Expect those cheers at his rallies to turn into yawns before the Spring is out.

Bernie is a 1 issue candidate.

Bernie what do you think about global warming?

Break up the banks!

Bernie what do you think about income inequality?

Break up the banks!

Bernie what do think about racism and sexism?

Break up the banks!

Bernie what do you think about ISIL, Syria, Russia and foreign policy?

Break up the banks!


Bernie what do you think about the wage gap?

Break up the banks!

Bernie what do you think about Planned Parenthood and medical privacy?

Break up the banks!

I could go on and on. Bernie is our version of Marco Rubio. It's the same rehearsed canned speech over and over again.

....would have a lead of about 100 pledged delegates, no few than 80 delegate lead. At that point, his strongest states (IA, NH, VT, maybe NV) will have voted.

The talk always is "what is the path to victory"? Unfortunately for the Sanders campaign, there will be no path to victory once the Super Tuesday primaries are over.

The remaining questions will be by how many delegates will Clinton win and on what date Sanders will concede.

of the end.

"Ready for Hillary" psycho-Republican? Your plan didn't work, obviously!

popular vote. The same scenario could happen this year with Sanders on the short end of the delegates. Then the Sanders people will demand that the rules be retroactively changed. It would be fun to watch them piss and moan. Still the best result is Hillary wins both and goes on to roll over Bernie everywhere else.

that the popular vote issue won't be a problem. Florida, Texas, Pennsylvania, and smaller states like SC, TN, AK, AL, MI, and so on will carry her well over the top.

If I recall, Hillary's popular vote totals included Michigan and Florida. Those were 2 primaries that didn't count. Obama didn't campaign in either state because of party rules.

In addition, the Obama campaign held off at the very end of the primary season because they knew they had the nomination won. For example, Hillary won the last primary (South Dakota I believe) largely uncontested because the race for the nomination was already over.

These two factors padded her popular vote total, and even then it was very close (the numbers can always be disputed because of the ridiculous caucus system).

The point is 2008 was a once in a lifetime primary. I expect Hillary to win both the popular vote (if it's even possible to legitimately count) and the delegate race comfortably.

2016 belongs to Hillary!

delegates are apportioned by voting district. Obama tailored his campaign to maximize delegates, not raw votes.
http://www.reviewjournal.com/news/elections/how-delegates-are-apportioned

by at least 5 points.

Maybe I was lowballing that number.

if it's a photo finish of IA. Which, dear God, I hope not because I don't need to hear another week of whining about how Sanders actually won a state he lost.

HRC didn't have the advantage in Iowa of the union support she has in NV. I keep telling people how important that is, but not everyone is listening.

That alone will give her a YUGE advantage over BS.

to the Caucus Gods' ears.

I have no feel for NV at all, so I'm calling it a near-tie. But I sure hope I'm under-calling it severely for Clinton.

....delegates closely (16-15, 15-16 or thereabout) but Clinton would come out with more delegates since she has at least 3 of the Superdelegates.

of a good, clear Clinton win in NV would be nice, though, and would stop the commentary post-NH.

Of course, she won't dominate in that state by anything like +20, so they'll still talk, but...the volume will go down a bit.

I'm really not sweating this at all.

....and 4% of the registered voters are in the Culinary union, the union that Sanders' campaign alienated two weeks ago.

Unions stick together AND they work hard for their candidates.

This is a Dem caucus. You do need to be registered as a D to participate, though you can switch your party affiliation the day of any cross over to vote in the caucus.

Thanks!

and I'm reporting this post as bashing.

This is a delegate race. The way the Democrats tally delgates, we are already pretty much certain to split Nevada's delegates regardless of who finishes "technically" ahead. Big wins are what matters. This is why South Carolina is important.

At the end of Super Tuesday, Hillary will have a commanding delegate lead. And because delegates are awarded proportionately, it will be impossible for Bernie to catch up.