STATE OF THE PRIMARY - February 22, 2016

Last edited Mon Feb 22, 2016, 10:45 PM - Edit history (1)

[font color="blue"]Delegate Count
Total Delegates (AP): Clinton 502, Sanders 70 (Clinton +432)
Pledged Delegates: Sanders 51, Clinton 51 (tie).
Versus Targets (Cook): Clinton +10, Sanders -11

Latest Results
Nevada Caucuses: Clinton 19, Sanders 15 (Clinton +4); 1 not yet allocated.
Versus 2/12 Targets: Clinton +3, Sanders -4.

Next Primary
South Carolina, February 27 (53 pledged delegates).
Targets (Cook): Clinton 28, Sanders 25.[/font]


[font color="darkblue"] Latest Polls
Michigan (ARG): Clinton 53, Sanders 40 (Clinton +13).
Massachusetts (Emerson): Sanders 46, Clinton 46 (tie).
North Carolina (Elon University): Clinton 47, Sanders 37 (Clinton +10).
Utah (Dan Jones): Clinton 51, Sanders 44 (Clinton +7).
Georgia (WSB-TV/Landmark): Clinton 72, Sanders 20 (Clinton +52).
Vermont (Castleton U): Sanders 83, Clinton 9 (Sanders +74).
North Carolina (SurveyUSA): Clinton 51, Sanders 36 (Clinton +15).
Illinois (The Simon Poll/SIU): Clinton 51, Sanders 32 (Clinton +19).

Current Polls-Plus Projections (538)
South Carolina: Clinton 65.0, Sanders 31.2.
Arkansas: Clinton 64.7, Sanders 31.8.
Georgia: Clinton 76.9, Sanders 19.8.
Massachusetts: Clinton 49.5, Sanders 47.4.
Oklahoma: Clinton 52.6, Sanders 43.9.
Tennessee: Clinton 65.4, Sanders 31.4.
Texas: Clinton 63.8, Sanders 33.2.
Virginia: Clinton 62.4, Sanders 34.5.
Michigan: Clinton 61.4, Sanders 35.8.
North Carolina: Clinton 60.7, Sanders 35.8.

Current Endorsement Score (538)
Clinton 468, Sanders 3.[/font]


[font color="brown"]Quick Glance at the GOP
Pledged Delegates: Trump 67, Cruz 11, Rubio 10.
538 Nevada Projection: Trump 64, Rubio 24, Cruz 11.
Endorsement Score: Rubio 108, Cruz 22, Kasich 20.[/font]


Comments
From now on, in the projections section, instead of probability-to-win I will list the mean of the probability curves representing Bernie and Hillary's respective vote shares. So, for instance, Hillary is projected to win 65% of the vote in South Carolina.

In cases where the 80% confidence intervals of the probability curves overlap, I've listed the state in italics. In other words, if you see a race in italics, there's at least a 10% chance that the candidate who is behind will nonetheless win the state.

(Republican projections will still list the probability of a candidate winning the state, since (a) there are more than two candidates and therefore usually some overlap, (b) some Republican states are winner-take-all, and (c) I can't be bothered to do the little bit of extra work for them.)

We finally have a projection for Massachusetts, and it doesn't look good for Bernie -- he's a couple points behind. He still has a 43% chance of winning the state, and it will help him in the MSM if he does -- they care about victories in states. But according to the Cook report, Bernie needs at least 56 delegates, or about 23 points over Hillary. According to Nate Silver's (somewhat more generous) breakdown, he needs at least 11 points over Hillary. It doesn't look like he's going to get either.

So where does Bernie stand? He's definitely going to win Vermont. He's behind in Massachusetts and Oklahoma, but has a decent chance to catch up and win it. We have no good data for Colorado and Minnesota, but we have to assume he's favored in those states.

So we're looking at between one and five of the 12 Super Tuesday states/territories for Bernie. But how many delegates does that amount to?

First, we'll assume that he'll win all five states mentioned above. Second, we'll assume a 60-40 share in delegates for each state, except for Vermont where we'll just give him all 16, because they really do love him there. Finally, we'll assume a tie in American Samoa.

Under this somewhat best-case scenario for Bernie, he would get 412 delegates to Hillary's 453. So he'd still be competitive, but still very much behind. He'll have a lot of work to do after Super Tuesday.

One more thing: From now on, this post will only appear in the Hillary Clinton group (and on my journal).


How This Works
The delegate counts, pledged and total, are taken from AP. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention).

The targets are taken from the Cook Political Report's model, based on superdelegate endorsement and demographic conditions favorable to each candidate, and represent the number of delegates each candidate must win in each state in order to stay on track to tie for the nomination. The targets are current as of February 12. The projections and endorsement scores are maintained by FiveThirtyEight; the numbers indicate the population mean of the candidates' vote shares. Italic font denotes that the 80% confidence intervals of the candidates overlap, meaning there's a reasonable chance that the person with the higher vote share will not win that state.

If this post is useful to you, please K&R!


[font color="purple"]Pun of the Day
I don't like Russian nesting dolls. They're so full of themselves![/font]

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