Hillary Clinton

Godhumor

(6,437 posts) Tue Feb 23, 2016, 03:12 PM Feb 2016

538 has posted updates predictions for the next batch of races (HRC group)

Cross-posted from GDP.

Only including those states with enough polling that 538's model has a prediction. All % are for chances of winning the state, not margin of victory.

Feb 27:
South Carolina - Clinton 96%

Mar 1:
Arkansas - Clinton 99%
Georgia - Clinton >99%
Oklahoma - Clinton 78%
Tennessee - Clinton 99%
Texas - Clinton 98%
Virginia - Clinton 98%

Mar 8:
Michigan - Clinton 97%

Mar 15:
North Carolina - Clinton 97%

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/

As I said in my post yesterday, analysts recognize the math just isn't there for Bernie.

18 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

538 has posted updates predictions for the next batch of races (HRC group) (Original Post) Godhumor Feb 2016 OP

Thanks for the post, Godhumor! BlueMTexpat Feb 2016 #1

It appears that a so-called Texas attorney in GD:P is making a list where Bernie BlueCaliDem Feb 2016 #2

That is one of the few posters on this site where I actively ignore their posts Godhumor Feb 2016 #5

I'm going to take your advice on that, Godhumor. eom BlueCaliDem Feb 2016 #15

...I didn't follow my own advice Godhumor Feb 2016 #16

Alas. Treant Feb 2016 #17

Citing Overtime Politics drew me in Godhumor Feb 2016 #18

Check out the counter OP which I posted on GD-P CajunBlazer Feb 2016 #6

But! Bernie's! Ahead! In! Treant Feb 2016 #10

Oh, the awesomeness! pandr32 Feb 2016 #3

Thanks GH! workinclasszero Feb 2016 #4

and that is just the odds of winning. If you look at his spreads based on the polls, they are quite still_one Feb 2016 #7

K & R Iliyah Feb 2016 #8

Reality works for us Coolest Ranger Feb 2016 #9

Out of curiosity, how many delgates are we talking? liberal N proud Feb 2016 #11

A LOT of those numbers look very pleasing. MADem Feb 2016 #12

That is pretty daunting sharp_stick Feb 2016 #13

Looking so good! mcar Feb 2016 #14

BlueMTexpat

(15,370 posts)

1. Thanks for the post, Godhumor!

Reply to Godhumor (Original post)

Tue Feb 23, 2016, 03:17 PM

Feb 2016

I very much hope that these predictions are correct.

BlueCaliDem

(15,438 posts)

2. It appears that a so-called Texas attorney in GD:P is making a list where Bernie

Reply to Godhumor (Original post)

Tue Feb 23, 2016, 03:18 PM

Feb 2016

outperforms Hillary in various States. Of course, those polls look suspicious (except Vermont) since some of them are touting that both Trump and Bernie are getting the lion's share of the "votes" for those polls.

Godhumor

(6,437 posts)

5. That is one of the few posters on this site where I actively ignore their posts

Reply to BlueCaliDem (Reply #2)

Tue Feb 23, 2016, 03:23 PM

Feb 2016

I don't put anyone on ignore, but there are people I won't be drawn into discussion with. That one is one of the few.

BlueCaliDem

(15,438 posts)

15. I'm going to take your advice on that, Godhumor. eom

Reply to Godhumor (Reply #5)

Tue Feb 23, 2016, 05:28 PM

Feb 2016

Godhumor

(6,437 posts)

16. ...I didn't follow my own advice

Reply to BlueCaliDem (Reply #15)

Wed Feb 24, 2016, 06:28 PM

Feb 2016

God damn it.

*sigh*

Treant

(1,968 posts)

17. Alas.

Reply to Godhumor (Reply #16)

Wed Feb 24, 2016, 06:31 PM

Feb 2016

Well, we all have our weak moments. No biggie.

Godhumor

(6,437 posts)

18. Citing Overtime Politics drew me in

Reply to Treant (Reply #17)

Wed Feb 24, 2016, 06:35 PM

Feb 2016

A poster and a topic I internally viewed to ignore. Apparently their combined "strength" was too much for me.

CajunBlazer

(5,648 posts)

6. Check out the counter OP which I posted on GD-P

Reply to BlueCaliDem (Reply #2)

Tue Feb 23, 2016, 03:25 PM

Feb 2016

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511318557

The Sanders folks are trying to ignore it so it will eventually slip out of sight.

Treant

(1,968 posts)

10. But! Bernie's! Ahead! In!

Reply to CajunBlazer (Reply #6)

Tue Feb 23, 2016, 03:52 PM

Feb 2016

Seven! States!

(If you use the whacked polls, that is, and ignore any momentum change from last Saturday and this Saturday, but, y'know...)

pandr32

(11,601 posts)

3. Oh, the awesomeness!

Reply to Godhumor (Original post)

Tue Feb 23, 2016, 03:19 PM

Feb 2016

workinclasszero

(28,270 posts)

4. Thanks GH!

Reply to Godhumor (Original post)

Tue Feb 23, 2016, 03:22 PM

Feb 2016

Looks like total domination for Hillary!

still_one

(92,320 posts)

7. and that is just the odds of winning. If you look at his spreads based on the polls, they are quite

Reply to Godhumor (Original post)

Tue Feb 23, 2016, 03:27 PM

Feb 2016

substantial

Nothing should be taken for granted, and we must insurance diligence in getting out the vote for Hillary

Iliyah

(25,111 posts)

8. K & R

Reply to Godhumor (Original post)

Tue Feb 23, 2016, 03:47 PM

Feb 2016

They are also posting RW Weekly Standard to discredit HRC on Civil Rights. BS campaign is going full negative.

Coolest Ranger

(2,034 posts)

9. Reality works for us

Reply to Godhumor (Original post)

Tue Feb 23, 2016, 03:47 PM

Feb 2016

I love it and I'm already seeing pro-Hillary ads in my part of North Carolina since I'm close to the VA border.

liberal N proud

(60,339 posts)

11. Out of curiosity, how many delgates are we talking?

Reply to Godhumor (Original post)

Tue Feb 23, 2016, 03:56 PM

Feb 2016

How many of the delegates from these races are split?

MADem

(135,425 posts)

12. A LOT of those numbers look very pleasing.

Reply to Godhumor (Original post)

Tue Feb 23, 2016, 03:57 PM

Feb 2016

I'm not taking a thing for granted though.

sharp_stick

(14,400 posts)

13. That is pretty daunting

Reply to Godhumor (Original post)

Tue Feb 23, 2016, 04:01 PM

Feb 2016

for the Sanders campaign.

Unless he really surprisingly wins at least one contest I don't see how he could pull it off.

mcar

(42,364 posts)

14. Looking so good!

Reply to Godhumor (Original post)

Tue Feb 23, 2016, 04:10 PM

Feb 2016

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