STATE OF THE PRIMARY - February 23, 2016 (Afternoon Edition)

[font color="blue"]Delegate Count
Total Delegates (AP): Clinton 503, Sanders 70 (Clinton +433)
Pledged Delegates: Clinton 52, Sanders 51 (Clinton +1).


Latest Results
Nevada Caucuses: Clinton 20, Sanders 15 (Clinton +5).
Vote Spread: Clinton 52.6, Sanders 47.3 (Clinton +5).
Versus Median Projection (538): Clinton +2.

Next Primary
South Carolina, February 27 (53 pledged delegates).
Median projection (538): Clinton +11.[/font]


[font color="darkblue"] Latest Polls
Michigan (ARG): Clinton 53, Sanders 40 (Clinton +13).
Massachusetts (Emerson): Sanders 46, Clinton 46 (tie).
North Carolina (Elon University): Clinton 47, Sanders 37 (Clinton +10).
Utah (Dan Jones): Clinton 51, Sanders 44 (Clinton +7).
Georgia (WSB-TV/Landmark): Clinton 72, Sanders 20 (Clinton +52).
Vermont (Castleton U): Sanders 83, Clinton 9 (Sanders +74).
North Carolina (SurveyUSA): Clinton 51, Sanders 36 (Clinton +15).
Illinois (The Simon Poll/SIU): Clinton 51, Sanders 32 (Clinton +19).
West Virginia (MetroNews): Sanders 57, Clinton 29 (Sanders +28).
Texas (UT/Texas Tribune): Clinton 54, Sanders 44 (Clinton +10).
Ohio (Quinnipiac): Clinton 55, Sanders 40 (Clinton +15).

Current Polls-Plus Projections (538)
South Carolina: Clinton 65.0, Sanders 31.2.
Arkansas: Clinton 64.7, Sanders 31.8.
Georgia: Clinton 76.9, Sanders 19.8.
Massachusetts: Clinton 49.5, Sanders 47.4.
Oklahoma: Clinton 52.6, Sanders 43.9.
Tennessee: Clinton 65.4, Sanders 31.4.
Texas: Clinton 62.1, Sanders 35.3.
Virginia: Clinton 62.4, Sanders 34.5.
Michigan: Clinton 61.4, Sanders 35.8.
North Carolina: Clinton 60.7, Sanders 35.8.

Current Endorsement Score (538)
Clinton 468, Sanders 3.[/font]


[font color="brown"]Quick Glance at the GOP
Pledged Delegates: Trump 67, Cruz 11, Rubio 10.
538 Nevada Projection: Trump 64, Rubio 25, Cruz 10.
Endorsement Score: Rubio 138, Cruz 24, Kasich 20.[/font]


Comments
I am no longer going to consider the Cook targets in this post. The Cook report takes into account estimated superdelegates when formulating its targets; however, while superdelegate votes do and should count, the Cook report doesn't factor in the likely fact that, if Bernie is obviously going to win the pledged delegates, the superdelegates will change their mind, as they did with Obama eight years ago, to preserve the will of the people.

I would love it if the Cook report released a different version of its scorecard that only accounted for pledged delegates. Until then, however, we have Nate Silver. His median projected votes give the expected vote margin for each state, assuming that the national vote is split 50-50. Under that metric, Bernie came in behind in all three states that have voted so far, for a total of 15 points behind target. This doesn't account for superdelegates at all, and is therefore a more accurate way of predicting who will be the numerical winner.

As expected, the new Texas poll narrowed the projected result in that state by 4 points -- now 62-35 Hillary. This might mean a couple more delegates in the Lone Star State for Bernie, although he's not in any real danger of winning the state.


How This Works
The delegate counts, pledged and total, are taken from AP. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention).

The projections and endorsement scores are maintained by FiveThirtyEight; the numbers indicate the population mean of the candidates' vote shares. Italic font denotes that the 80% confidence intervals of the candidates overlap, meaning there's a reasonable chance that the person with the higher vote share will not win that state. The median projection for a state is the expected outcome in that state if the national vote is tied 50-50; whichever candidate exceeds the median projection draws closer to winning the nomination; the other drops farther behind.

If this post is useful to you, please K&R!


[font color="purple"]Pun of the Day
Until the metric system is established, a ruler will always be afoot![/font]

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