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How does this stack up to 538's scorecard for a 50-50 race to the nom? (HRC Group)
Nate Silver released his analysis of what margins a candidate needs to win or lose a state by to finish roughly even with each other by the convention.
For a 50-50 race Bernie should have lost the SC delegate count at -20. 538's prediction was -25.
In reality he lost by approximately 48. A full 13 to 14 points worse than what would imply a tied race nationally. 13 to 14 points.
I'm sure you understand why I am posting this here tonight instead of GDP.
You can see the chart at:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/bernie-sanders-doesnt-need-momentum-he-needs-to-win-these-states/
