STATE OF THE PRIMARY - February 28, 2016

Last edited Sun Feb 28, 2016, 03:33 AM - Edit history (1)

Reprinted from here with permission of the author (me). Please keep this thread kicked throughout the day so that non-night-owls won't miss it.


[font color="blue"]Delegate Count

Total Delegates: Clinton 544, Sanders 85 (Clinton +459).
Pledged Delegates: Clinton 91, Sanders 65 (Clinton +26).
2,383 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.


Latest Results

South Carolina (53): Clinton 39, Sanders 14 (Clinton +25).
Vote Spread: Clinton 73.5, Sanders 26.0 (Clinton +47.5).
Versus Median Projection Clinton +20: +27.5.


Next Primary: March 1 (Super Tuesday)

Alabama (53), median Clinton +30.
American Samoa (6): median tie.
Arkansas (32), median Clinton +24.
Colorado (66), median Sanders +11.
Georgia (102), median Clinton +40.
Massachusetts (91), median Sanders +11.
Minnesota (77), median Sanders +21.
Oklahoma (38), median Sanders +4.
Tennessee (67), median Sanders +2.
Texas (222), median Clinton +13.
Vermont (16), median Sanders +83.
Virginia (95), median Clinton +9.



[font color="darkblue"]Latest Polls

Massachusetts (WBUR/MassINC): Clinton 49, Sanders 44 (Clinton +5).
Florida (PPP): Clinton 57, Sanders 32 (Clinton +25).
Florida (Quinnipiac): Clinton 59, Sanders 33 (Clinton +26).
Virginia (Roanoke College): Clinton 50, Sanders 33 (Clinton +17).
South Carolina (Emerson): Clinton 60, Sanders 37 (Clinton +23).
Georgia (WSB-TV/Landmark): Clinton 68, Sanders 22 (Clinton +46).
Illinois (We Ask America): Clinton 57, Sanders 28 (Clinton +29).


Current Polls-Plus Projections (from 538)

Arkansas: Clinton 65.0, Sanders 31.6.
Georgia: Clinton 72.8, Sanders 23.7.
Massachusetts: Clinton 52.2, Sanders 44.8.
Oklahoma: Clinton 52.7, Sanders 43.7 .
Tennessee: Clinton 65.7, Sanders 31.2.
Texas: Clinton 66.6, Sanders 30.3.
Vermont: Sanders 86.1, Clinton 11.6.
Virginia: Clinton 63.5, Sanders 33.1.
Michigan: Clinton 61.5, Sanders 35.6.
North Carolina: Clinton 60.7, Sanders 35.8.
Ohio: Clinton 61.0, Sanders 36.8.
Florida: Clinton 67.3, Sanders 30.0.
Illinois: Clinton 66.3, Sanders 29.6.


Current Endorsement Score (from 538)

Clinton 474, Sanders 3.



[font color="brown"]Quick Glance at the GOP

Pledged Delegates: Trump 82, Cruz 17, Rubio 16.
538 Massachusetts Projection: Trump 43, Rubio 24, Kasich 18.
Endorsement Score: Rubio 150, Cruz 34, Kasich 31.



[font color="black"]Comments
Everyone knew that Hillary would win South Carolina. I've known for some time now that she would win big. I don't think many people knew that she would win this big. Supporters of both candidates are still reeling.

For perspective: Bernie won New Hampshire by 22 points and six delegates. Hillary won South Carolina by 47 points and 25 delegates. Not even the mainstream media could spin this as a "virtual tie." Nor even can Bernie's campaign spin this as merely a "decisive victory." This was, to quote CNN's John King, a thrashing.

The decisive factor, to be sure, was African Americans in South Carolina. Turnout reached record highs, and they broke for Hillary 84-16. If turnout and swing continue to even approach these levels in the states to come, Bernie -- with apologies to his supporters -- does not stand a chance.

For Hillary fans, the question is not if, but when. I know that there are any number of good reasons, from Bernie's point of view, for him to stay in the race. But the fact remains: We're going to have our work cut out for us in the general, and the sooner Bernie concedes, the sooner Hillary can give her undivided attention to taking down the Donald.


How This Works
The delegate counts, pledged and total, are taken from AP. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention).

The projections and endorsement scores are maintained by FiveThirtyEight; the numbers indicate the population mean of the candidates' vote shares. Italic font denotes that the 80% confidence intervals of the candidates overlap, meaning there's a reasonable chance that the person with the higher vote share will not win that state. The median projection for a state is the expected outcome in that state if the national vote is tied 50-50; whichever candidate exceeds the median projection draws closer to winning the nomination; the other drops farther behind.


[font color="purple"]Pun of the Day
Last night I dreamed that I had written Lord of the Rings. My wife said I was Tolkien in my sleep!