Hillary Clinton
Related: About this forumAny ideas about how the final delegate breakdown will be?
Talking pledged only here. I see Hillary at 526 but it still looks like there are around 200 to be allotted. Any ideas how that will break down? What the totals will look like?
TheDormouse
(1,168 posts)TheDormouse
(1,168 posts)as the talking heads and the boosters here would lead you to believe
shenmue
(38,506 posts)This is the Clinton group.
sweetloukillbot
(11,068 posts)But Texas for example has 222 delegates, but only 165 pledged so far. Georgia has 102, but only 88 pledged so far.
I remember Texas had some funny thing with a simultaneous caucus last time (that Obama won) but I haven't heard anything about that this year. Of course the whole calendar is running a month later than last year as well.
UrbScotty
(23,980 posts)They got rid of that this year.
http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2015/06/two-step-is-out-for-texas-democrats-in.html
MSMITH33156
(879 posts)But Steve Kornacki on MSNBC did back of the envelope calculations on what they should be. I'm just sticking to pledged delegates.
There were 865 pledged delegates at stake, and Kornacki estimated:
Clinton: 525
Sanders: 340
What were the expectations? This thread from earlier had 538 level setting:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/110760960
I encourage clicking that link, because it gives ranges, but the dumbed down version was that the Bernie supporters were correct that this playing field was more favorable to Hillary. Hillary's target was 435, Sanders was 412.
Obviously, Hillary did significantly better that necessary, and Sanders came up short.
538 did another analysis of demographics, and expected vote share to get half the delegates today, Clinton was +16.