and Hillary said. "TPP is the new Goldstandard". Is a YUGE part of why Hillary didn't win Michigan. I live in Michigan, no one polled me, I don't know who they did poll. But I can tell you Bernie had a lot of Support here long before the Primary.

Over there in GDP...and not here in the Hillary Group, ok? Thanks!

See you later!

That's news.

definitely make sense to me.

I talked with more than one Democrat who said that they crossed over to vote for Kasich to keep Trump's support low.

As to that point about recent history with primaries: I think that in determining who was a "likely voter," many pollsters included few people who had voted in the 2008 and 2012 primaries - the first of which was a cluster****, and the second of which was Obama being renominated.

... I have a problem with the idea of "not trusting any polls that were conducted, even in part, before March 9."

Yes, there apparently was a "perfect storm of circumstances" at play in MI - but that doesn't change the fact that the polls have been pretty dead-on accurate in all of the other primary contests so far.

The inaccuracy in MI is not the beginning of a "trend" of all polls being inaccurate from here on in. Pollsters and analysts did not get the preceding states "right" and then suddenly realize they'd been doing it "wrong". They'd been "right" up to now, using the same methodology.

So let's not throw the baby out with the bathwater, and dismiss all polls out-of-hand due to one state which was, as was said, caught-up in a "perfect storm of circumstances" not likely to be repeated in the many remaining primary state contests.

Polls are what they've always been - an indicator of how votes are likely to be cast in each state. They are not infallible - but they should not be labelled from here on as "likely fallible" because of one state's results.

Even in Michigan, the Republican polls were correct.

It can be very difficult to poll an unsettled electorate in an open primary where any registered voter can request any ballot. You just don't know exactly what the electorate is going to do on the day. Small fluctuations in voter behavior can throw things off, like the seven percent of Dems who chose R ballots, many of whom may have voted Trump to set him up as the easiest candidate to beat in the GE, thinking Hillary would easily win the Dem primary. Some people do that kind of strategic voting. But I think the main thing there here is that the polling methods and models under-polled indies and young people. It happens.

Hillary won registered Dems by 18 points.

According to Electoral-Vote.com, Washington Post has figured it out. The polls weren't supposed to be a landslide for Hillary, but rather neck-to-neck. Please read on.

http://www.electoral-vote.com

"A total of 1,322,742 voters participated in the Republican primary, while 1,193,169 voted in the Democratic primary."

http://www.mlive.com/news/index.ssf/2016/03/2016_michigan_primary_voter_tu.html


7% of 1,322,742 Republican votes is 92,591 votes.

The difference between BS and HRC was 18,427 votes.


BS 595,222 minus HRC 576,795 = 18,427
http://www.mlive.com/news/index.ssf/2016/03/live_results_michigan_primary.html#incart_special-report
Michigan presidential primary


Last updated: March 9, 2016, 5:23 p.m. EST
REPUBLICANS
Donald Trump
Called with 11.61% margin
100% reporting
DEMOCRATS
Bernie Sanders
Called with 1.54% margin
100% reporting
CANDIDATE PERCENT VOTES
Bernie Sanders 49.82% 595,222
Hillary Clinton 48.28% 576,795
Uncommitted 1.63% 19,425
Martin O'Malley 0.20% 2,338
Rocky De La Fuente 0.07% 863

Did you notice that was the name of one of the pollsters?
"Some Clinton supporters chose to vote in the Republican primary. We know 7 percent of voters in the Republican primary identified themselves as Democrats to exit pollsters, compared with just 4 percent of voters in the Democratic primary who said they were Republicans. “Those 7 percent of Dems were likely mostly Hillary voters who thought she had an easy win and they could do their part trying to stop Trump,” said Bernie Porn of pollster EPIC-MRA. The exit-poll samples are too small, though, to check that. "

"Bernie Porn" is the guy's real name....he owns a Lansing survey research company. The poor guy has probably been teased about his name his whole life, but it must be especially brutal this campaign season.