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Bernie Sanders is set to win several states. Will they be enough? (Original Post) Iamaartist Mar 2016 OP
The math is against him sharp_stick Mar 2016 #1
He'll win Idaho today, lose AZ and possibly Utah. stopbush Mar 2016 #2
He won't lose Utah. But the margin in Arizona . . . Chichiri Mar 2016 #9
He could. It's a caucus. Depends who shows up to slog through the process. stopbush Mar 2016 #10
Worst case scenario? yallerdawg Mar 2016 #3
Amazing, isn't it? charlyvi Mar 2016 #23
Someone on DU told me that Bernie's red state comradebillyboy Mar 2016 #24
In the immortal words of Forrest Gump... yallerdawg Mar 2016 #26
How I long to visit progressive Utah! charlyvi Mar 2016 #27
I lived in Utah for three years comradebillyboy Mar 2016 #35
There may be worse places charlyvi Mar 2016 #36
I live in New Mexico now and I only wish comradebillyboy Mar 2016 #38
By all means charlyvi Mar 2016 #41
By all means take the stick out of your ass comradebillyboy Mar 2016 #42
Pride goeth before the fall.... Walk away Mar 2016 #4
I hope before that lol Iamaartist Mar 2016 #33
in a word,NO Setsuna1972 Mar 2016 #5
math does speak Iamaartist Mar 2016 #34
Most of the caucus states that he is favored in are small WI_DEM Mar 2016 #6
If AZ wasn't closed I could see him winning big here sweetloukillbot Mar 2016 #7
Again, one needed to be registered a month ago to vote in the AZ primaries. stopbush Mar 2016 #12
They're trying- they're just getting turned away sweetloukillbot Mar 2016 #15
This will be the next poutrage from the BSers, stopbush Mar 2016 #17
Yup sweetloukillbot Mar 2016 #19
I think a lot of them knew damn well NastyRiffraff Mar 2016 #37
Of course. Bernie's mantra is "your life sucks and it's that guy's fault, not yours." stopbush Mar 2016 #40
I agree it won't be a blow out. I was surprised Hillary only made one campaign stop in AZ WI_DEM Mar 2016 #18
I thought she was here a couple times, and Bill was here Sunday. n/t sweetloukillbot Mar 2016 #20
300,000 Dems in Az voted early and comradebillyboy Mar 2016 #25
It's going to be a mess counting though. sweetloukillbot Mar 2016 #32
Winning states is not going to give him the delegates since delegates are Thinkingabout Mar 2016 #8
Net result for today will be Clinton by about 20 delegates over Sanders in the three states combined George II Mar 2016 #11
nice! Her Sister Mar 2016 #14
till April 19th ~ Her Sister Mar 2016 #13
Bernie Sanders Can Win All Remaining Contests and Still Lose Nomination..... Iamaartist Mar 2016 #16
Depends on by what margins he wins them by Kaleva Mar 2016 #21
No MSMITH33156 Mar 2016 #22
Donated again lmbradford Mar 2016 #28
Donated again! Treant Mar 2016 #39
His message is half baked, It's better than trumps which is raw. dubyadiprecession Mar 2016 #29
Bernie vs Math ... MATH WINS! (Which means Hillary wins!) :-P NurseJackie Mar 2016 #30
I think Bernie hosed himself in Arizona, and maybe Idaho jmowreader Mar 2016 #31

stopbush

(24,396 posts)
2. He'll win Idaho today, lose AZ and possibly Utah.
Tue Mar 22, 2016, 10:48 AM
Mar 2016

At the end of the night, he'll net negative delegates v Hill.

stopbush

(24,396 posts)
10. He could. It's a caucus. Depends who shows up to slog through the process.
Tue Mar 22, 2016, 12:47 PM
Mar 2016

If Bernie loses Utah, it will most likely be because people are giving up on him as a viable candidate and don't want to waste their time on a lost cause.

yallerdawg

(16,104 posts)
3. Worst case scenario?
Tue Mar 22, 2016, 10:54 AM
Mar 2016

Hillary moves from a 317 delegate lead to 330!

If lucky, Sanders may "win" Utah and Idaho - but being Red States, will he really want to count them?

comradebillyboy

(10,144 posts)
24. Someone on DU told me that Bernie's red state
Tue Mar 22, 2016, 04:39 PM
Mar 2016

wins were better than Hill's because the Dems in those states were more progressive than the Dems in southern states.

comradebillyboy

(10,144 posts)
38. I live in New Mexico now and I only wish
Tue Mar 22, 2016, 06:16 PM
Mar 2016

this state was as competently governed as Utah, and we are way more progressive here.

Walk away

(9,494 posts)
4. Pride goeth before the fall....
Tue Mar 22, 2016, 11:01 AM
Mar 2016

That said, Fall is a nice season in Vermont and Bernie can go home for good, well before the foliage starts to change.

WI_DEM

(33,497 posts)
6. Most of the caucus states that he is favored in are small
Tue Mar 22, 2016, 11:30 AM
Mar 2016

and in April HRC will more than make up for it with wins in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Connecticut and Rhode Island--most of which are closed primary states where Independents and Republicans cannot participate.

sweetloukillbot

(11,010 posts)
7. If AZ wasn't closed I could see him winning big here
Tue Mar 22, 2016, 11:47 AM
Mar 2016

I'm expecting Hillary to win, but I don't think it will be a blowout. There are a lot of Libertarian types that flock to him. Of course there are also a ton of Latinos which would point towards Hillary, although prominent Latino activists and leaders have endorsed Bernie. I have seen numerous Bernie independents complaining that they didn't get registered Democrat in time.
I figure if she wins Utah it will be because of the closed caucus as well.

stopbush

(24,396 posts)
12. Again, one needed to be registered a month ago to vote in the AZ primaries.
Tue Mar 22, 2016, 12:51 PM
Mar 2016

If you are not a D and wanted to switch your party affiliation to vote in the D primary, you needed to do that a year ago.

The Independent vote that has flocked to Bernie in the open primaries will not be there today because it can't be there today. That spells a blow-out favoring Hillary, who has been in AZ for months with a large and disciplined staff.

Doesn't matter if you have big rallies if many of the people at the rallies can't vote in the closed primary. I'm envisioning many Indy Bernie supporters showing up at the polls today and being turned away because they're not registered Ds.

stopbush

(24,396 posts)
17. This will be the next poutrage from the BSers,
Tue Mar 22, 2016, 02:19 PM
Mar 2016

that voters were "disenfranchised" because they couldn't be bothered to learn what the rules were ahead of time to be permitted to vote in the AZ D primary.

Look for an online petition today asking that the AZ primary results be nullified (only if Hillary wins, of course) and a new contest held that allows everyone to vote, damn the rules.

NastyRiffraff

(12,448 posts)
37. I think a lot of them knew damn well
Tue Mar 22, 2016, 06:09 PM
Mar 2016

what the AZ D primary rules are; they just chose to ignore them and clog up the lines waiting to vote. Federal law says they have to be given a provisional ballot regardless of the rules, so it just wastes everybody's time, including the legitimate voters waiting in the long lines. But hey, who cares? Besides, how DARE they deny these snotty, entitled kids (of any age) a vote just because they don't follow Arizona's stupid rules!?

stopbush

(24,396 posts)
40. Of course. Bernie's mantra is "your life sucks and it's that guy's fault, not yours."
Tue Mar 22, 2016, 06:32 PM
Mar 2016

The entitled kids will blame the evil AZ elections people for being mean to them. It fits right in with Bernie's overall message.

comradebillyboy

(10,144 posts)
25. 300,000 Dems in Az voted early and
Tue Mar 22, 2016, 04:43 PM
Mar 2016

their demographics heavily favored Hillary. No pesky independents also helps Hillary. I think when the sun rises tomorrow her delegate lead will have increased.

sweetloukillbot

(11,010 posts)
32. It's going to be a mess counting though.
Tue Mar 22, 2016, 05:22 PM
Mar 2016

Reports are that the polling places are getting flooded with independents who may or may not have registered in time - they're ALL getting provisional ballots and will be sorted out afterwards. I'm kind of dreading going to vote after work...

Thinkingabout

(30,058 posts)
8. Winning states is not going to give him the delegates since delegates are
Tue Mar 22, 2016, 11:52 AM
Mar 2016

Apportioned by vote or caucus results. Hillary only needs 41% making Sanders requiring more than winning states.

 

Her Sister

(6,444 posts)
13. till April 19th ~
Tue Mar 22, 2016, 01:11 PM
Mar 2016
"Combined, New York, Pennsylvania, and Maryland put 531 delegates at stake. That's compared with the 265 delegates available in the all of the eight next contests that should be favorable to Sanders."


Less than a month. 28 days from today!

Kaleva

(36,298 posts)
21. Depends on by what margins he wins them by
Tue Mar 22, 2016, 03:30 PM
Mar 2016

If he beats HRC in each state by 16 percent or more, then it's a great win for him. Anything less then that would be a defeat.

MSMITH33156

(879 posts)
22. No
Tue Mar 22, 2016, 04:13 PM
Mar 2016

And it won't even be close. This election has been over for some time.

It's actually annoying, not that he continues to run, which is certainly his right. He can stay in all the way to the convention if he wants.

But people need to stop entertaining stories about "momentum" and "game changers." This race is over.

We did the math before last Tuesday. Just to put things in context:

-Last Tuesday, where Hillary dominated, there were 691 delegates awarded.

-She leads by 319 delegates.

-There are only 359 delegates available in the 7 states that vote between now and April 19th.

-On April 19th and 26th there are 631 delegates available, in mostly Hillary friendly states (all but one closed primaries, where she kills him. Even in states he wins, like Michigan, she wins the Democratic vote handily).

I understand the point of the article was to point out that it is "daunting"...but that understates it. It's over. And has been.

lmbradford

(517 posts)
28. Donated again
Tue Mar 22, 2016, 04:52 PM
Mar 2016

Every time someone thinks he should quit at halftime, thats my cue to donate again. Go Bernie!!!

Treant

(1,968 posts)
39. Donated again!
Tue Mar 22, 2016, 06:22 PM
Mar 2016

Every time a Sandernista opens his/her mouth in a closed group where they know they aren't welcome--and takes the opportunity to be obnoxious at the same time--that's my cue to donate to Hillary!

Go Hillary...we know you already have this, but you'll need the bucks for the Generals!

jmowreader

(50,557 posts)
31. I think Bernie hosed himself in Arizona, and maybe Idaho
Tue Mar 22, 2016, 05:12 PM
Mar 2016

There are four states his open-border stance will hurt him: Arizona, California, Washington and Idaho. He will definitely lose Arizona and California...he could lose Washington and he might lose Idaho.

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