Hillary Clinton
Related: About this forumNo SotP today because Easter, but please keep these things in mind . . .
First, Hillary's lead is currently 268, and 67 delegates remain from last night. So whatever happens, Hillary retains at least a 200 delegate lead over Bernie. That's number one.
Second, if Bernie takes every single delegate, Hillary will still need only 44.3% of all remaining delegates. That's a higher percentage than she had on Friday, but it's still a much better percentage to have than Bernie's 55.7%.
Third, and probably most importantly, there are only four caucuses remaining in the election, giving a total of 88 delegates, and 18 primaries, giving a total of 1,641 delegates. Bernie is 10 for 14 in caucuses, and 5 for 21 in primaries. Of the remaining primaries, 9 are open, semi-open, or semi-closed (I don't think there's a meaningful difference between the three, except that the semis keep out the Republican spoilers), giving a total of 882 delegates. The other 9 are closed, for a total of 759 delegates. Of the 4 closed primaries we've had so far, Bernie has won only Democrats Abroad.
Fourth, Hillary spent almost nothing on last night's states; she has quite a lot saved up for April's states.
Fifth, Hillary has experience running in a primary, a hell of a good staff behind her, and a long-term strategy that doesn't involve flipping superdelegates before the convention. Basically, she's got this.
So start making calls in Wisconsin and New York tomorrow, and be sure to donate what you can!
Cha
(297,650 posts)54 Delegates yesterday.. did she do it?
And, I also read BS didn't make the amount he needed.
Chichiri
(4,667 posts)She'll have to make it up in states to come, and she almost certainly can. And if not, her lead over target was large enough anyway that she can still win.
Cha
(297,650 posts)TexasTowelie
(112,417 posts)Saturday's vote the split in Washington will go 49 for Sanders and 18 for Clinton. That means that her lead stands at 237 pledged delegates currently. Bernie will probably catch up some with Wisconsin and Wyoming, but the New York primary and the Northeast Super Tuesday the following week will wrap up the deal.
Chichiri
(4,667 posts)She looks pretty good in the polls.
I really want to see the Marquette numbers, though.
Right now, I'm calling WI a weak Sanders win and WY a strong Sanders win...that way I won't be disappointed.
Much like I wasn't disappointed last night. Given the states and the format, I had Sanders up 80-20 in all three. I was pleasantly surprised that he underperformed--and fell behind on my projection sheet.
http://demrace.com/?share=5kOkgxAh
I use truly ridiculous wins for Sanders and ridiculous ties for Clinton and still can't get Sanders to a win.
Chichiri
(4,667 posts)Think I'll try that.