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WI_DEM

(33,497 posts)
Wed Mar 30, 2016, 02:07 PM Mar 2016

New Marquette University Poll: Sanders 49% (+5) Clinton: 45% (+2) in WI

Close!--GOTV!

In the Democratic race, Bernie Sanders is leading Hillary Clinton 49 percent to 45 percent. Seventy-seven percent of Democratic voters said Clinton is most likely to win the Democratic nomination while 19 percent said Sanders.

http://www.wisn.com/politics/todays-marquette-law-school-poll-shows-cruz-sanders-in-lead/38764592

Some tweets from Marquette University Polling:


MULawPoll
@MULawPoll

Among Democratic voters, Sanders lead is strongest in Madison and north and west, other areas closely competitive. #mulawpoll

In the city of Milwaukee, Clinton leads 51-42 among registered voters, Sanders leads 47-46 among likely voters. #mulawpoll

Sanders supported by 83% of those 18 to 29, by 59% of those 30 to 44, by 43% of those 45 to 59, 31% of those over 60. #mulawpoll

Clinton supported by 12% of 18 to 29 year olds, 37% of 30-44, 51% of 45-59, and 63% of over 60. #mulawpoll

Among Dem voters, Clinton supported by 48% of women and 40% of men. Sanders supported by 46% of women and 54% of men. #mulawpoll

Sanders lead Clinton among white likely primary voters, 51-42. Clinton leads 58-42 among non-white voters. #mulawpoll

19 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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New Marquette University Poll: Sanders 49% (+5) Clinton: 45% (+2) in WI (Original Post) WI_DEM Mar 2016 OP
6% margin of error. hrmjustin Mar 2016 #1
If its a close primary workinclasszero Mar 2016 #2
This is an open primary so hopefully lots of indies will vote for Kasich WI_DEM Mar 2016 #4
Indys can vote but the poll shows indys are leaning towards the gop race. hrmjustin Mar 2016 #7
a 4% loss is really a win for Clinton. geek tragedy Mar 2016 #3
Marquette's pretty good Treant Mar 2016 #5
Bernie is going to be in WI all week up to the primary, so far Hillary's last WI_DEM Mar 2016 #6
Madison is 84% White otohara Mar 2016 #8
Bernie needs blowouts, not squeakers peggysue2 Mar 2016 #9
I have seen at least one Sanders supporter cite the WI paragraph from that article as if it's true CalvinballPro Mar 2016 #11
What is troubling is the same pollster only showed Feingold ahead by 3 still_one Mar 2016 #10
It's within margin of error. HRC campaign said yesterday she may go back to WI this week FloridaBlues Mar 2016 #12
I think per this poll the rural areas lean to Bernie WI_DEM Mar 2016 #14
That is close still_one Mar 2016 #15
This poll was taken over Easter so don't take it too seriously hrmjustin Mar 2016 #13
I think it is ok. Within the same general area as the previous poll which had Hillary ahead. This still_one Mar 2016 #17
As a comparison Obama won WI primary in 2008--58-41 percent WI_DEM Mar 2016 #16
much of this poll was taken before HRC began campaigning in WI WI_DEM Mar 2016 #18
I expect Michigan-like results out of Wisconsin jmowreader Mar 2016 #19
 

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
3. a 4% loss is really a win for Clinton.
Wed Mar 30, 2016, 02:16 PM
Mar 2016

Sanders would net fewer delegates than he did from Alaska or than he will from Wyoming.

Treant

(1,968 posts)
5. Marquette's pretty good
Wed Mar 30, 2016, 02:16 PM
Mar 2016

and more or less the gold standard for WI. Barring massive GOTV efforts, I'd call WI as a win for Sanders, about 55-45 by the time all's said and done--the Marquette trend is firmly in Sanders' direction.

Looking at the demographics in WI, that's not surprising. So now call, volunteer, and get out every Clinton voter we can there.

WI_DEM

(33,497 posts)
6. Bernie is going to be in WI all week up to the primary, so far Hillary's last
Wed Mar 30, 2016, 02:17 PM
Mar 2016

scheduled appearances were Monday and Tuesday. I hope she comes back to Milwaukee. If she can boost the Milwaukee vote she has a chance to win.

 

otohara

(24,135 posts)
8. Madison is 84% White
Wed Mar 30, 2016, 02:36 PM
Mar 2016

so it makes total sense Senator Sanders is spending so much time in Madison.

peggysue2

(10,832 posts)
9. Bernie needs blowouts, not squeakers
Wed Mar 30, 2016, 02:42 PM
Mar 2016

St Bernard needs record blowouts in the remaining primaries to even tie Hillary Clinton. Nate Silver ran a piece, running the unlikely numbers in the contests ahead. If you're into magical thinking, Silver's numbers are for you.

Win or lose Wisconsin, Hillary's got this.

 

CalvinballPro

(1,019 posts)
11. I have seen at least one Sanders supporter cite the WI paragraph from that article as if it's true
Wed Mar 30, 2016, 03:17 PM
Mar 2016

Despite Nate Silver prefacing the entire thought exercise with the phrase, "To repeat, these are not predictions. On the contrary, they describe a rose-colored-glasses scenario for Sanders that I consider to be very unlikely."

still_one

(92,219 posts)
10. What is troubling is the same pollster only showed Feingold ahead by 3
Wed Mar 30, 2016, 03:04 PM
Mar 2016

against Johnson

WI will be close. Nate Silver still gives the advantage to Hillary

FloridaBlues

(4,008 posts)
12. It's within margin of error. HRC campaign said yesterday she may go back to WI this week
Wed Mar 30, 2016, 03:30 PM
Mar 2016

I hope she does too. This will be a close one
Wonder about the rual areas do those areas lean Hillary?
Don't think the Bern is there all week either going to NY too

WI_DEM

(33,497 posts)
14. I think per this poll the rural areas lean to Bernie
Wed Mar 30, 2016, 03:48 PM
Mar 2016

Region


Clinton


Sanders



Milwaukee City and County


45 (Clinton)


49 (Sanders)



Rest of Milwaukee Media Market


48 (Clinton)


46 (Sanders)



Madison Media Market


42 (Clinton)


52 (Sanders)



Green Bay Media Market


48 (Clinton)


46 (Sanders)



Rest of the state (north and west)


42 (Clinton)


54 (Sanders)

still_one

(92,219 posts)
17. I think it is ok. Within the same general area as the previous poll which had Hillary ahead. This
Wed Mar 30, 2016, 03:55 PM
Mar 2016

tells me both are within MOE, and I value WI_DEM's insight.

Of course we will know soon enough

WI_DEM

(33,497 posts)
16. As a comparison Obama won WI primary in 2008--58-41 percent
Wed Mar 30, 2016, 03:53 PM
Mar 2016

and still HRC only got ten fewer delegates than he did--and if it's closer than that this time--Bernie will net very few delegates.

WI_DEM

(33,497 posts)
18. much of this poll was taken before HRC began campaigning in WI
Wed Mar 30, 2016, 04:00 PM
Mar 2016

in the last two days where she spoke out on the Supreme Court, Gun violence, & college affordability in Madison, Milwaukee, La Crosse and Green Bay.

jmowreader

(50,560 posts)
19. I expect Michigan-like results out of Wisconsin
Wed Mar 30, 2016, 04:05 PM
Mar 2016

It's got a lot of rural area, it's majority white, and they reelected Scott Walker, AKA "God's payback for inventing Miller Lite." Bernie doesn't need Michigan redux. He needs voters to break for him like they broke for Hillary in Louisiana, and that isn't going to happen.

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