Hillary Clinton vs Bernie Sanders in New York: what’s the deal with the wacky polls?

http://www.dailynewsbin.com/opinion/hillary-clinton-vs-bernie-sanders-in-new-york-whats-the-deal-with-the-wacky-polls/24411/

With the New York democratic primary just ten days away and both candidates investing heavily in trying to win it, the polls all agree that Hillary Clinton is comfortably ahead of Bernie Sanders by double digits. But they disagree sharply on just how comfortably she’s ahead. How is it possible that the various recent polls have Hillary leading by anywhere from ten points to forty-eight points and everything in between? Which if any of these polls are correct?

The Emerson poll raised eyebrows two weeks ago when it declared that Hillary Clinton was leading New York by a whopping forty-eight points. It’s no surprise that she’s in the lead. The state has a diverse population that looks like America, and it’s also a closed primary meaning you have to register properly to vote – and Hillary tends to do very well under those circumstances. Bernie has typically only won states where the population is nearly all-white, and states that use formats that favor him such as a caucus or an open primary. But could Hillary possibly be ahead by nearly fifty points in the state?

As it turns out, no. Numerous subsequent polls from various outlets have placed Clinton’s lead in New York as being anywhere from ten points to twenty-one points. And sure enough, the updated Emerson poll now has Hillary leading in New York by eighteen points, putting it roughly in line with the others. No single poll changes by thirty points in just a few weeks without either a catastrophic event or a shift in polling methodology. Since there has been no campaign moment that could account for the thirty point shift, We’re left to conclude that Emerson simply saw that its forty-eight point gap was out of line with the rest of the polling and revised its methodology accordingly on this go-round.

So what we’re left with is a range of polls now stating that Hillary Clinton is leading Bernie Sanders by somewhere between ten and twenty-one points, for an average of around fifteen points. Hillary is looking to win by a larger margin make a statement. Bernie is looking to pull off an upset win to make a statement of his own. But if the average of the revised polls is correct, which it often is in a closed primary state, it looks like Hillary is headed toward a fifteen point win.