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Godhumor

(6,437 posts)
Sun Apr 10, 2016, 08:04 PM Apr 2016

The Closed Primary stretch is about to start (5 of the next 6 states with 607 delegates)

To date delegates awarded via fully closed primaries:

Clinton - 224 (63.5%)
Sanders - 129 (36.5%)

Let's assume Sanders outperforms the past and only loses these states by an average of 15%. Hillary's lead from just those 5 states increases 90+ delegates.

The second half of April is going to be so much fun!

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The Closed Primary stretch is about to start (5 of the next 6 states with 607 delegates) (Original Post) Godhumor Apr 2016 OP
Things look good, but I'm still anxious for some reason. Not looking forward to 9 more days of... IamMab Apr 2016 #1
Don't get too anxious about NY. We're voting for her Godhumor Apr 2016 #2
I guess I am so ready to get the GE over just to see the results. Thinkingabout Apr 2016 #3
Anxious because NY is so pivotal. Three possible paths depending on this one state: Buzz Clik Apr 2016 #4
If results reflect the current polling data... LiberalFighter Apr 2016 #5
 

IamMab

(1,359 posts)
1. Things look good, but I'm still anxious for some reason. Not looking forward to 9 more days of...
Sun Apr 10, 2016, 08:13 PM
Apr 2016

...the mindless pablum of "states won in a row" and "momentum." 9 days of knowing the NY media is circling like vultures on any little thing to amplify and distort.

I just wish the vote could be this week. And then another 5 states on the 26th. How do so many of these things end up on Tuesdays?

Godhumor

(6,437 posts)
2. Don't get too anxious about NY. We're voting for her
Sun Apr 10, 2016, 08:21 PM
Apr 2016

And:

Closed primary

Last day to change party registration to vote in the primary was in October

Last day for new voters to register to vote in the primary was almost three weeks ago


Minimal interference from "independents" and a large, mature dedicated registered Democratic population = a massive Hill for BS to climb.

 

Buzz Clik

(38,437 posts)
4. Anxious because NY is so pivotal. Three possible paths depending on this one state:
Sun Apr 10, 2016, 08:27 PM
Apr 2016
  1. Sanders loses by 10+: Game over
  2. Sanders wins by 5+: Sanders gets huge momentum swing
  3. Close vote (within 5 points either way): the primary season will not be resolved until June.

LiberalFighter

(50,950 posts)
5. If results reflect the current polling data...
Sun Apr 10, 2016, 11:31 PM
Apr 2016

of which only 4 of 6 states are available. Sanders will need over 64.5% of remaining delegates instead of the current 56.5%. It will be higher if Clinton wins the other 2 states.

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