STATE OF THE PRIMARY - April 11, 2016 (Adjustment Edition)

57 Days to California, 8 Days to New York.


Delegate Count

Pledged Delegates: Clinton 1,308, Sanders 1,096 (Clinton +212).
Total Delegates: Clinton 1,777, Sanders 1,127 (Clinton +650).
2,382 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 718 pledged delegates, 43.6% of remaining.
Sanders needs 930 pledged delegates, 56.5% of remaining.


Latest Results

Wyoming: Sanders 7, Clinton 7 (tie).
Versus 3/30 Targets: Sanders 7/11 (-4), Clinton 7/3 (+4).
Versus Adjusted Targets: N/A


Next Primary: April 19

New York: 247 delegates.
3/30 Targets: Sanders 128, Clinton 119.
Adjusted Targets: Sanders 131, Clinton 116.



Comments
I'm introducing something new into SotP: adjusted targets. The explanation is pretty lengthy, so there's a TL;DR at the bottom.

The current targets are those calculated by Nate Silver on March 30 (hence "3/30" targets), which are an update over the targets created by FiveThirtyEight at the start of the primary, against which Sanders is currently 90 delegates short. On March 30, the whole thing was reset to zero and the targets recalculated based on the state of the races so far.

I've taken that one step further. The adjusted targets, which I've calculated myself, are the number of delegates a candidate needs to take from a given state, plus the delegates he or she failed to gain from previous states. In other words, the adjusted targets reflect how many delegates a candidate needs to fall exactly on track for the nomination.

Sanders' 3/30 target track began at 1,038 pledged delegates. In the couple weeks since then, there were minor adjustments in the counts of previous states, resulting in his gaining 3 delegates. However, we also had the Wisconsin primary, in which Sanders fell 2 delegates behind target, and the Wyoming caucuses, in which he fell a further 4 delegates behind. In total, then, he is now 3 delegates behind his target, having 1,096 out of 1,099 needed delegates.

His state target for New York next week is 128 delegates. However, if he meets that number exactly, he will still be 3 delegates behind his overall target. Thus, to completely catch up to where he needs to be, he needs 131 delegates from New York. That's the adjusted target.

If he comes up short of 128, then that reflects the condition of New York alone; if he comes up short of 131, however, the difference will carry forward into the April 26 slate of states. If he gains 124 delegates from New York, for example, then the 7-delegate deficit is added to his April 26 target of 384, making an adjusted target of 391.

Right now Sanders is quite close to his adjusted target, only 3 delegates off. But in the end, this is the metric that really counts; there's no way to spin a deficit. If he is still 3 delegates off, or even 1 delegate off, when the last contest is decided, he fails to gain the majority and thus loses the nomination.

Now look at Hillary. Her 3/30 target is 119 for New York, but since she is 3 delegates ahead of her overall target, her adjusted target for the state is 116. If she only takes 116 delegates from New York (which is 47% of delegates), then she and Sanders are tied in the entire race. If she takes 119 delegates (48.2%), then the adjusted target for April 26 remains three delegates short of original. If she takes 126 delegates (51%), then her adjusted target for April 26 is 10 less than her original target. And so on.

Here's the TL;DR: The adjusted targets are a quick way to look at the results from a state, and judge from it the overall state of the race.


How This Works
Unless otherwise indicated, all information is taken from FiveThirtyEight except the superdelegate count, which is taken from Associated Press. Superdelegates have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates, but may change their mind before the convention. The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination.


Pun Of The Day
The man who robbed the soap factory made a clean getaway!