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Related: About this forumUS contradicts itself about Venezuela interference
US contradicts itself about Venezuela interference
By Staff Writers, teleSUR
Saturday, Feb 21, 2015
The U.S. government contradicted itself Friday afternoon regarding its interventionist policies on Venezuela by saying that the White House was considering adopting new tools to steer the Venezuelan government in a more positive direction.
White House spokesperson Josh Ernest was asked by reporters whether Washington was considering new sanctions against the Latin American country in light of the arrest on Thursday of Caracas Mayor Antonio Ledezma, accused of plotting to topple the democratically-elected government of President Nicolas Maduro with the support of the Obama administration.
"The Treasury Department and the State Department are closely monitoring this situation and are considering tools that may be available that can better steer the Venezuelan government in the direction that they believe they should be headed," Ernest said.
Earnest said allegations by Maduro that the United States was trying to destabilize his government were "ludicrous."
Friday's statement by Ernest contradicts Thursday's State Department press release that stated, The United States is not promoting unrest in Venezuela nor are we attempting to undermine Venezuelas economy or its government.
More:
http://axisoflogic.com/artman/publish/Article_69447.shtml
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White House says considering 'tools' to help steer Venezuela
POSTED: 21 Feb 2015 12:10
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Obama administration is considering additional "tools" that can help "steer" the Venezuelan government in a more positive direction, White House spokesman Josh Earnest said on Friday.
Asked whether the U.S. government is considering any new sanctions against Venezuela or actions in concert with regional U.S. allies, Earnest said: "The Treasury Department and the State Department are closely monitoring this situation and are considering tools that may be available that can better steer the Venezuelan government in the direction that they believe they should be headed."
Earnest said allegations by Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro that the United States was trying to destabilize the Maduro government were "ludicrous."
http://www.thestar.com.my/News/World/2015/02/21/White-House-says-considering-tools-to-help-steer-Venezuela/
(Short article, no more at link.)
leveymg
(36,418 posts)As journalist William Blum notes, theres one thing the United States hates more than a Marxist in power, and thats a democratically elected Marxist in power. A prime example was Salvador Allende of Chile. September 4 marks 31 years since his election. September 11 marks 28 years since his death in a U.S.-sponsored coup.
Henry Kissinger, June 27, 1970
Also instructive on the subject of Venezuela today, the Nixon Tapes: http://nixontapes.org/chile.html
6/11/71
P, HAK, JBC
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Connally soon joined Nixon and Kissinger in the Oval Office, where he propounded at great length upon the threat posed by Allendes nationalization policy to American interests elsewhere in the region.[vii] Nixon shared with Connally his frustration with the IMF and World Bank, which he believed were not doing enough to use their financial leverage against Third World nations that had or were pursuing nationalization without adequate compensation.
Neither Connally nor Nixon realistically expected that the U.S. Government could use force to coerce other nations into abandoning nationalization. In that sense, their positions were not dissimilar from those expressed by State Department. The difference lay in the fact that Connally urged the President not to passively accept nationalization without compensation. Only energetic action could set an example for other nations considering following Allendes lead: And the only thing, the only pry we have on em, the only lever we have on em, it seems to me, is at least if we could shut off their credit, or shut off the markets for the commodities they produce, or something. But we have to be in a position to impose some economic sanctions on em. Now, you cant impose military sanctions, but we can impose financial or economic sanctions. In light of the opposition of the State Department and its Latin American Division (which Nixon described as a disaster area), Connally suggested the possibility of the President issuing a statement, a statement of policya White Paper, so to speakin which he instructs all the government that as a matter of policy, this government will not vote for, nor favor, any loan to any country that has expropriated American interests, unless until that country is furnishing good and sufficient evidence that satisfactory payment has been made.
Nixon heartily concurred, adding that a failure to take tough action was going to encourage others to go and do likewise. Consequently, it made sense to establishing a precedent and find a place to kick somebody in the ass. Rather than indulge Allendes excesses, Nixon was happy to let the Soviets shoulder the burden: Let it be a drain on the Russians. I just have a feeling here that I think we ought to treat Chile like we treat this damn Castro.
Transcript | Summary
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6/11/71
P, HAK, HRH
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Following his conversations with Kissinger and Connally, Nixon was no mood to hear about the State Departments objections. Upon being informed that Secretary of State Rogers opposed Connallys suggestion, Nixon snapped: We sure as hell can do something about expropriation. Dont you agree, Henry? Should we just simply lie back and let them expropriate things around the world? Screw em. Kissinger concurred, noting that unless we become too dangerous to tackle, theres gonna be a constant erosion of our international position. Kissinger then harkened back to the days of John Foster Dulles tenure at Foggy Bottom (i.e. the period of the coup détats against Mossadeq and Arbenz), when people were just too afraid to tackle us.
Transcript | Summary
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6/16/71
P, JDE, CBd, PGP
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Judi Lynn
(160,542 posts)Oh, and Nixon was perfectly sane, wasn't he? The ravings of a madman, and his opportunistic super-ghoul assistant. This is STILL our national policy, all these years later.
People like our own oligarchs see land, property, business in other countries taken by US-based corporations as being the same as part of the U.S. itself, inviolate, no matter how it was obtained, and at what tragic cost to the people of those countries.
Wow.
These quotes from the actual conversations of Richard Milhous Nixon have a powerful impact today, Saturday, February 21, 2015.
You are generous, thoughtful to provide this important straight view of history. Vital information.
leveymg
(36,418 posts)But, economically, he was also far to the Left of anyone who has any hope of winning the Democratic nomination. He once said, "we are all Keynesians," which would almost make him a Marxist today. We live in ideologically starved times.
hack89
(39,171 posts)He doesn't seem to have a problem with capitalism.
leveymg
(36,418 posts)Too much of "our" profits have to stay in Venezuela, where too much goes to the poor. In the view of "serious people" in Washington, that makes him a Marxist. So, he has to be dealt with as is traditionally the case.
hack89
(39,171 posts)We are their largest trading partner and we buy as much of their oil as they are willing to sell us. We are not responsible for the falling oil production and deficit spending that has put them in a bind. Nor are we responsible for their domestic currency laws that precipitated the current economic crisis.
leveymg
(36,418 posts)While oil exports to the US have been down since the first failed coup (2004) and the 2008 nationalizations of Exxon and Conoco platforms, overall exports (particularly to China) have more than offset that. (Fig1 and Fig2) The long-term prospects for oil earnings of Venezuela, which has the world's largest reserves, is promising. (Fig3)
?cb=1394062372
hack89
(39,171 posts)Due to lack of infrastructure investment and a brain drain of skilled oil workers moving to better paying jobs - many are in Canada and the US.
leveymg
(36,418 posts)That investment deficit in Venezuelan production will be turned around by additional tranches of FDI from Asia. Venezuela's reserves are just too valuable for the entire world to let production decline over the longer-term. What we are seeing is a shift from exports to the US (where the overall demand/domestic production ratio has fallen) to growing Asian markets.
You might start by reading an authoritative source on the subject: http://www.eia.gov/countries/cab.cfm?fips=ve
Judi Lynn
(160,542 posts)hack89
(39,171 posts)Venezuelas clout on OPEC and on world oil prices has been greatly diminished because of its inability to exploit its enormous resources, said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy and Economic Research, a consultancy. In the 1990s, their production was booming and they could thumb their nose at Saudi Arabia and get away with it, but now they have become OPECs poor cousin.
In a fundamental geopolitical turn, Venezuela now relies far more on the United States than the United States relies on Venezuela. Venezuela depends on the United States to buy 40 percent of its exports because Gulf of Mexico refineries were designed to process low-quality Venezuelan and Mexican crudes that most refineries around the world cannot easily handle. But in recent years, the United States has been replacing its imports of Latin American crudes with oil from Canadian oil sands fields, which is similarly heavy.
American imports of Venezuelan oil have declined to just under a million barrels a day, from 1.7 million barrels a day in 1997, according to the Energy Department. And while Venezuelan exports of oil are in decline, its dependency on American refineries for refined petroleum products has grown to nearly 200,000 barrels a day because of several recent Venezuelan refinery accidents.
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/09/world/americas/venezuelas-role-as-oil-power-diminished.html?_r=0
hack89
(39,171 posts)hack89
(39,171 posts)hack89
(39,171 posts)Current data from the International Energy Agency show the companys production has fallen to 2.2 million barrels per day, yet government rhetoric cites a growth target of more than five million barrels per day.
In reality, it would take tens of billions of dollars simply to maintain current production levels, and hundreds of billions to achieve that growth target. This, for a company facing a $480-billion (U.S.) debt and seeing almost all of its cash flow sucked away to pay for bloated social programs. PDVSAs only hope is to attract international investment, a slim prospect considering the unilateral cancellation of foreign agreements by the late Mr. Chavez.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/venezuelas-declining-fortunes-a-lesson-in-mismanagement/article17060542/
leveymg
(36,418 posts)much mismanagement of the country's oil resources as you would like to believe. In the long-term, Venezuela's huge proven reserves -- and growing global demand --guarantee that the country remains creditworthy and its balance of payments will stay healthy.
Furthermore, as I discuss, below, production is less important than exports in guaranteeing a country's balance of accounts and macroeconomic viability.
You're ideological zeal blurs your ability to see the larger picture.
hack89
(39,171 posts)Their government bonds have been down graded to junk bond status with a rating indicating default in imminent.
The key drivers of today's rating actions are the following:
1) Default risk has increased substantially as external finances continue to deteriorate due to a strong decline in oil prices.
2) In the event of a default, Moody's believes that the loss given default (LGD) is likely to be greater than 50%.
https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-downgrades-Venezuelas-rating-to-Caa3-from-Caa1-outlook-stable--PR_315563
Venezuelan debt was widely held by emerging-market investors until the summer. Many viewed the bonds as a safe bet because the country brought in ample revenue as a major oil exporter. But a nearly 50% drop in the price of crude since mid-June has left Venezuelas finances in shambles. The price of credit-default swaps on Venezuela debt, a type of insurance, indicate a 61% chance of default in the next year and a 90% chance in the next five years.
The country is an extreme example of the turmoil that sliding prices for oil and other commodities have had on emerging markets, where stocks, bonds and currencies have recently sold off from Russia to South Africa.
Venezuela and its state-run oil company, Petróleos de Venezuela SA, known as PdVSA, issued more debt than any other emerging market between 2007 and 2011. Venezuela and PdVSA have $66 billion in outstanding debt, analysts say.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/oil-shakes-venezuelan-debt-to-its-foundations-1419209573
hack89
(39,171 posts)leveymg
(36,418 posts)Last edited Mon Feb 23, 2015, 01:09 PM - Edit history (1)
Nobody's arguing that Venezuelan production wouldn't be higher with additional funding from Exxon and other US oil giants, but that isn't the issue here. The country's economic problems are not really so much attributable to the mismanagement factors related to the nationalization of the VZ oil industry that some claim.
Export earnings continue to be robust, and Venezuela is almost infinitely credit-worthy from global sources, which frustrates the hell out of those who are offended by Venzuela's renationalization of upstream supplies after 1999.
hack89
(39,171 posts)how in the hell can those earnings be robust with oil prices, and hence oil revenues, plummeting?
leveymg
(36,418 posts)in VZ that you and some others celebrate isn't going to last very long, and the present elected government is proven to be robust and probably isn't going to fall. Sorry to disappoint you.
The long-term prospects for Venezuela's economy are excellent. It has the world's largest proven oil reserves - Asia will buy it, even if the U.S. doesn't.
hack89
(39,171 posts)1. Prices will not recover for at least a year. VZ's economy will not last that long in its present state.
2. They have issued massive amounts of debt - any economic increase will go to service that debt. What is left over will have to go to oil infrastructure investment if they hope to stop their production slide.
3. While they have world's largest proven oil reserves it is extremely hard to extract - their oil is similar to Canadian shale oil in its difficulty to pump and refine. That means two things - the price of oil has to be pretty high for them to break even - their costs are much higher than Saudi Arabia for example. There is no reason to think Saudi Arabia will let the price get that high considering their desire to knee cap US and Canadian oil fracking production. Secondly, they cannot extract that oil without the help of the large oil companies - VZ does not have the expertise nor the capital to do it by themselves. They will not get that help until they show they are willing to honor contracts and pay their bills on time.
leveymg
(36,418 posts)Last edited Tue Feb 24, 2015, 11:23 AM - Edit history (3)
to CA, which is nothing compared to the $4 or 5 trillion they have in the ground;
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jan/08/china-venezuela-20bn-loans-financing-nicolas-maduro-beijing
Xi said on Thursday China would invest $250bn in Latin American countries over the next decade. The move is part of an attempt by Beijing to boost its influence in a region that tends to look to the US as its largest trading partner.
Beijing has extended $50bn of credit to Venezuela since 2007, mostly in exchange for oil shipments. The country exports about 600,000 barrels of oil to China a day, nearly half of which go towards repaying its loans.
Last July, China offered to loan Venezuela $4bn while Xi visited Caracas during a 10-day tour of Latin American.
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He described Maduro as an old and good friend of the Chinese people at a meeting on Wednesday. It can be said that the development of China-Venezuela relations and win-win positive cooperation have been raised
3) KSA no longer controls the price that Asian countries are willing to pay. China has the largest supplies under contract in the world - they buy at a contracted price, not the Ras Tanura terminal price. The posted prices paid on the spot and futures markets -- the ones the public reads -- bear little relationship to long-term contract prices.
hack89
(39,171 posts)VZ has some of the most expensive oil in the world and they have no influence what so ever on global prices.
Once again - they cannot extract that oil without the help of international oil companies. Right now oil companies are not rushing to do business in VZ because of the toxic business environment.
leveymg
(36,418 posts)because the customers have to. That's why they call them supply contracts.
There are plenty of smaller oil services companies around the world that are quite happy to supply current technology and trained personnel.
Judi Lynn
(160,542 posts)hack89
(39,171 posts)They are not credit worthy by any stretch of the imagination:
The key drivers of today's rating actions are the following:
1) Default risk has increased substantially as external finances continue to deteriorate due to a strong decline in oil prices.
2) In the event of a default, Moody's believes that the loss given default (LGD) is likely to be greater than 50%.
https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-downgrades-Venezuelas-rating-to-Caa3-from-Caa1-outlook-stable--PR_315563
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bond_credit_rating
leveymg
(36,418 posts)are dreams.
Neither Venezuela nor Russia relies upon western securities markets for their government funding, so this is just another futile step that's punishing the private sector in both countries.
hack89
(39,171 posts)Venezuela faces a potential gap in funding in 2015 given what it owes to foreigners holding U.S. dollar denominated debt. Siobhan Morden, a veteran emerging market debt strategist and head of Latin America strategy at Jeffries in New York believes the government needs to fill a $14 billion hole in its balance sheet in order to meet its obligations.
"Maybe they can do something that is extremely creative that enables them to get through this year. But as it stands right now, with all the resources I am looking at, they are underfunded," said Siobhan Morden, head of Latin America strategy at Jefferies in New York.
If President Nicolas Maduro can make it through this year, that funding gap increases to roughly $26 billion in 2016, Morden said. "Then they are absolutely, completely underfunded for 2016. But that is assuming they make it through this year. I would say there is still a high probability of default this year," she said.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/11/venezuela-economy-idUSL1N0VL13920150211
You need to stopping making stuff up and do a little research.
leveymg
(36,418 posts)Venezuela recorded a Government Debt to GDP of 49.80 percent of the country's Gross Domestic Product in 2013. Government Debt To GDP in Venezuela averaged 42.33 Percent from 1994 until 2013, reaching an all time high of 71.90 Percent in 1994 and a record low of 26.30 Percent in 2008.
hack89
(39,171 posts)their debt has gone up as their revenue has gone down. They can't pay their bills.
leveymg
(36,418 posts)In other words, with its debt covered, and the price of oil headed back up, those who have announced the demise of the Venezuelan government are premature.
so why are they on the verge of default? Why haven't they tapped that endless credit limit to ease their present economic crisis? Their economy can't provide the basics to the people - don't you think they should actually do something?
leveymg
(36,418 posts)nationalized after the coup attempt?
And, then what, return the rest of the Venezuela national oil company's assets held by the public since 1976?
hack89
(39,171 posts)I have no problem with VZ nationalizing whatever they want - they just have to accept the consequences of their actions. I am assuming they knew the risks they were taking.
So to get back to my question - why hasn't Maduro tapped that Chinese credit to get his country out of the hole it is in?
hack89
(39,171 posts)Venezuela faces the maturity of its Global 2015 bond on March 16 amid plunging oil prices that have weakened fiscal accounts and spurred concerns of a sovereign debt default. President Nicolas Maduro has dismissed default rumors as a right-wing smear campaign.
"Torres reiterated their willingness to pay and honor their commitments," said an investor contacted by IFR who took part in a series of meetings in Caracas organized by Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
The euro-denominated bond is part of around $10 billion of principal and interest payments the sovereign and state-owned oil company PDVSA must service this year, IFR reported.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/23/venezuela-bonds-idUSL1N0V21VT20150123
99th_Monkey
(19,326 posts)Judi Lynn
(160,542 posts)[center][/center]
Demeter
(85,373 posts)Imagine where we all would be, if someone with basic skills was running things in DC.
Such unjustified arrogance is not to be encouraged, let alone believed.
bemildred
(90,061 posts)and that goes back to Nixon and Kissinger, which is when it all became political here, there were no longer any places were lying for political purposes was not allowed, no longer any things that were not done, and no longer anybody who gave a shit about unimportant things like that.
One could make an analogy with the corruption and short-term thinking in our business elites too, since they are closely connected.
Demeter
(85,373 posts)Their rapacious brutality and total indifference to national sovereignty started the backlash which freed portions of South America from US hegemony and Empire, and that process continues, thanks to stunning early successes like Venezuela and massive incompetence since Allende's murder.
Watergate was a blessing for the world. Too bad its influence didn't last long in the USA.
bemildred
(90,061 posts)These assholes are coming out of the woodwork again now. If they get their way, they will finish the job. I have been torn since Bush the Lesser came in between trying to warn people and just watching the show. Mostly I watch the show.
Demeter
(85,373 posts)We've lost two generations since Nixon...maybe 3, and I don't think the Boomers are going to live as long as previous generations, either.
That kind of personal experience doesn't get handed down to the children, nor is it taught in the schools (nothing is, nowadays, as far as I can tell, not even arithmetic)
Worse yet, a lot of people haven't been paying attention, because:
- Quality of life has been on a rapid decline since Nixon (the start, but he had lots of help since then)
- Corporatism is taking over everything, even in places that Corporations have no business (ie: no profit-making opportunities) just because they can. It's Orwellian.
- Globalism is peaking and collapsing, simultaneously. It's like a wildfire, or a hurricane: massive destruction that is unsustainable in the long term. The fuel gets burnt up, the atmospheric energy dissipates.
- The power of the press is shifting to distributed sourcing via the internet, so getting information is much harder these days, and knowing whom to trust is worse. There are too many liars and shills clogging up the information pathways. but they get identified, and then ignored.
- Creating a true grassroots is going to take time, time we may not have as a species. But rather than sit around moaning, the most survival-oriented are going to act, meet, and form people-based institutions that will have to take down Globalism, Corporatism, and the 1%.
It's unfortunate, our lot in life. And the lives of our children and grandchildren. But perhaps the generation after that will start to see some recovery of the natural rights of people.
bemildred
(90,061 posts)And wasteful. And we are all going to die, we are ephemeral beings, and ought to accept it, it's a good deal, why fuck it up? This is a beautiful place, it can be a lot of fun.
1.) Indeed. Right around 1970, I just slipped under the wire, I was 20s then, got that good free education before they started treating students like widgets. The Mighty Wurlitzer was still in its infancy. We had a decent independent press and publishing industry, or the remnants anyway.
2.) That's the return on investment (ROI) thing other people like to talk about, and indicates the lack of further opportunities for exploitation at the desired rate of return. All of those bigshots sitting on all of that cash have to make X% ROI on it or they are failures. So they try to attach to the public teat. With great success so far.
3.) As your heart fails, it runs faster and faster. It's a warning.
4.) Well, I think at this point the objective is just noise, to prevent communication and organization down here in the rabble. Trolling technique has changed since I came here. They used to try to argue. Likely that is the only strategy for control still accessible in the chaos of the internet. They amp the chaos up, or try anyway.
5.) Yep, us hippies have been working on that since Nixon, and some of us are out there now. Kobane. Subcommander Marcos. Bolivia. There are still people out there who have some respect for themselves and the Earth.
jwirr
(39,215 posts)claims they go to war to promote democracy. And I do not believe them when they say they are not promoting unrest - starvation?
President Obama please stop the trickle down disaster capitalism that we are pushing throughout the world. I does not work. And Standard Oil (Exxon) does not need to take over in Venezuela again.
Judi Lynn
(160,542 posts)using tactics which create starvation, and unrest could believe it, either. It's such an ancient formula, and it has been used to death with no one powerful enough to prevent it.
Reminds one exactly of the memorandum written by Undersecretary of War, John Breckenridge, regarding his advice for the treatment of Cubans in order to take them over, written Christmas Eve, 1897:
~ snip ~
The island of Cuba, a larger territory, has a greater population density than Puerto Rico, although it is unevenly distributed. This population is made up of whites, blacks, Asians and people who are a mixture of these races. The inhabitants are generally indolent and apathetic. As for their learning, they range from the most refined to the most vulgar and abject. Its people are indifferent to religion, and the majority are therefore immoral and simultaneously they have strong passions and are very sensual. Since they only possess a vague notion of what is right and wrong, the people tend to seek pleasure not through work, but through violence. As a logical consequence of this lack of morality, there is a great disregard for life.
It is obvious that the immediate annexation of these disturbing elements into our own federation in such large numbers would be sheer madness, so before we do that we must clean up the country, even if this means using the methods Divine Providence used on the cities of Sodom and Gomorrah.
We must destroy everything within our cannons range of fire. We must impose a harsh blockade so that hunger and its constant companion, disease, undermine the peaceful population and decimate the Cuban army. The allied army must be constantly engaged in reconnaissance and vanguard actions so that the Cuban army is irreparably caught between two fronts and is forced to undertake dangerous and desperate measures.
More:
http://www.historyofcuba.com/history/bmemo.htm
(I'm pretty sure I've read that Breckenridge had earlier been an officer of the Confederacy. What a filthy, reeking racist.)