Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

polly7

(20,582 posts)
Sun Apr 3, 2016, 03:11 PM Apr 2016

Venezuela: Dismantling a Weapon of Mass Destruction

By Mark Weisbrot
SOurce: Triple Crisis
April 3, 2016

The government of Venezuela has often denounced an “economic war” against it, and of course this is part of the current situation. The primary weapon of mass destruction in this war is the black market for the dollar. It is no coincidence that the main source of information for this market — the extreme right-wing “DolarToday” — is run by someone who played an important role in the U.S.-backed military coup in 2002. He was then an army officer — Colonel Gustavo Díaz Vivas — and he now resides in Alabama, with DolarToday operating out of the U.S.

This is also no coincidence. Washington has been trying to topple the Venezuelan government for at least 15 years, and almost every journalist I have talked to during this time — including from every major international media outlet — has been well aware of this effort; although they almost never write about it.

The black market for the dollar is especially destructive because it is part of an inflation-depreciation spiral that has been growing since the fall of 2012. When the price of a dollar on the black market rises, importers must pay more for the dollars that they need, and this increases inflation. But then the higher inflation encourages more people to buy dollars on the black market, as a store of value. This pushes up the black market dollar price, which increases inflation, in a continuing spiral. In October 2012, inflation was at 18 percent and the black market dollar was at 13 Bf (Bolivares Fuertes). At the end of 2015, inflation hit 181 percent, and the black market dollar had passed 800.

The main reason that the current spiral does not get even worse is that the economy is in recession. It shrank by 5.7 percent last year. But attempts to stimulate the economy through government spending would likely feed the inflation-depreciation spiral. This means that the economy is currently trapped in recession.


Full article: https://zcomm.org/znetarticle/venezuela-dismantling-a-weapon-of-mass-destruction-2/
7 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies

Bacchus4.0

(6,837 posts)
3. and here he is saying the second exchange rate seems to have stabilized the black market
Sun Apr 3, 2016, 04:41 PM
Apr 2016

Will the new exchange rate system work? So far, it seems to have tamed the black market. There was a huge drop in the black-market rate after the announcement of the new system—it fell from 87.91 BsF/dollar on February 19 to a low of 57.06 on March 21. It has bounced around since then and at this moment (May 30, 2014) is at 70.86. We can expect fluctuations in the black market due to speculation, as participants try to figure out how that new system is going to affect the price of the parallel dollar. But it does seem like the upward trend of the black-market dollar over the past year-and-a-half has been arrested. Most importantly, the SICAD II exchange rate has thus far been stable, settling at a rate of about 49 BsF per dollar.

The black market is at 1170 now.

Bacchus4.0

(6,837 posts)
2. Here is Weisbrot three years ago saying the Ven economy will grow for years to come
Sun Apr 3, 2016, 04:35 PM
Apr 2016
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/mar/03/venezuela-devaluation-doom-mongers

(Also, here he is disputing what he is now advocating in the recent article, already posted by the way)

Let's examine the argument. The first premise – that Venezuela had to devalue in order to get more domestic currency (the bolivar fuerte) for each dollar of oil revenue – has been the foundation of most news reporting. But this does not make much economic sense. When the government devalues the currency from 4.3B to 6.3B per dollar, what does it do? It credits itself with two additional bolivares for each dollar of oil revenue that it receives.



Despite the wishful thinking that is over-represented in the media, Venezuela's economy will most likely grow formany years to come, so long as the government continues to support growth and employment.
 

Marksman_91

(2,035 posts)
4. HA! Mark Weisbrot is a poor example of "credible" journalism.
Mon Apr 4, 2016, 10:04 AM
Apr 2016

He's been proven wrong year after year regarding his claims on Venezuela under Chavismo, and the idiot only seems to make up excuses and go with the bullshit propaganda that the Chavista regime likes to claim as truth. He's probably just another washed-up paid shill by the Chavista regime like that hag Eva Golinger.

hack89

(39,171 posts)
5. Nobody made Venezuela implement a complex three tier foreign currency regime
Mon Apr 4, 2016, 03:28 PM
Apr 2016

that all but guaranteed a thriving black market as most businesses were locked out of favorable exchange rates.

The combination of price and currency controls implemented by Chavez were a toxic combination that merely created a spiral of inflation and shortages.

Judi Lynn

(160,591 posts)
6. Mark Weisbrot has excellent credentials with human beings, but not fascists.
Mon Apr 4, 2016, 06:20 PM
Apr 2016

Wikipedia:

Mark Weisbrot is an American economist, columnist and co-director, with Dean Baker, of the Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR) in Washington, D.C. As a pundit, he contributes to publications such as New York Times, the UK's The Guardian, and Brazil's largest newspaper, Folha de S. Paulo.

As an economist, Weisbrot has opposed privatization of the United States Social Security system and has been critical of neoliberal globalization and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). He has supported efforts by South American governments to create a Bank of the South, in order to make them more independent of the IMF. Weisbrot's work on Latin American countries (including Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Ecuador and Venezuela) has attracted national and international attention, and in 2008 was cited by Brazilian Foreign Secretary Celso Amorim.[1] In early 2010 Weisbrot's work on Latvia's economic crisis attracted national and international attention. His work on Greece's ongoing debt crisis has influenced the debate over what measures the Greek government should take in negotiating a solution with the European Central Bank and European Commission, including with Greece's former Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis and current Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras.[2][3]

Weisbrot has several times contributed testimony to Congressional hearings, in 2002 to a House of Representatives committee, on Argentina's 1999–2002 economic crisis[4] and in 2004 to the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee, on the state of democracy in Venezuela, and on media representation of Hugo Chávez and of Chávez's Venezuela.[

More:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Weisbrot

Latest Discussions»Region Forums»Latin America»Venezuela: Dismantling a ...