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GatoGordo

(2,412 posts)
Thu Feb 8, 2018, 11:31 AM Feb 2018

Maduro needs a distraction from the fraud of elections: Remember Argentina and the Falklands?

Brazil sends a message to Maduro: do not dare invade Guyana
Brazil 08.02.18 10:26

translated from Portuguese

The Brazilian Armed Forces has the information that Venezuela plans to take by force the region of Essequibo that belongs to Guyana. The UN practically washed its hands of the territorial litigation.

The departure of Raul Jungmann to Guyana, as well as to Suriname, is a message that Brazil will not tolerate Maduro's aggression against any neighboring country.

Wanted by the site, the defense minister avoided talking about the subject. But military sources said that "the plate is hot".

https://www.oantagonista.com/brasil/brasil-manda-recado-a-maduro-nao-ouse-invadir-a-guiana/
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Maduro needs a distraction from the fraud of elections: Remember Argentina and the Falklands? (Original Post) GatoGordo Feb 2018 OP
If Maduro attacks, then he can paint himself as the victim of foreign aggression. DetlefK Feb 2018 #1
Yeah but who's going to believe Guyana, pop 700,000 would attack Venz, pop 31 million? EX500rider Feb 2018 #2
They do have about 18 Soviet era, 1963 vintage cannons (never fired) and a couple of helicopters GatoGordo Feb 2018 #3
Would Venezuela Invade Guyana? GatoGordo Feb 2018 #4

DetlefK

(16,423 posts)
1. If Maduro attacks, then he can paint himself as the victim of foreign aggression.
Thu Feb 8, 2018, 11:35 AM
Feb 2018

Any military aggression towards Venezuela will be spun as Venezuela being the true victim here.

 

GatoGordo

(2,412 posts)
3. They do have about 18 Soviet era, 1963 vintage cannons (never fired) and a couple of helicopters
Thu Feb 8, 2018, 03:37 PM
Feb 2018

Other than that, the vast majority of the Guyanese military spend their days at border crossings playing checkers.

2000 British trained members... 3000 if you include members of the Guyanese Military Coast Guard, Air Patrol and... Credit Union.

Venezuela has over 4000 Generals. Cuban trained.

 

GatoGordo

(2,412 posts)
4. Would Venezuela Invade Guyana?
Fri Feb 9, 2018, 01:05 PM
Feb 2018

A Brazilian delegation's quick trip to Guyana and Suriname suggests things are moving beneath the surface of the border dispute between Venezuela and Guyana. On Feb. 7, Brazilian President Michel Temer approved a trip by Defense Minister Raul Jungmann, Justice Minister Torquato Jardim and Institutional Security Cabinet Chief Sergio Etchegoyen to Guyana and Suriname. According to Agencia Estado, the visit's purpose is to discuss border security with the Guyanese and Surinamese governments. However, an unconfirmed report in Brazilian paper O Antagonista claimed the real reason behind the visit was to share information that Brazil's intelligence services had learned about Venezuela considering a military incursion into Guyana.

Venezuela has claimed ownership over the Guyanese territory west of the Essequibo River since 1962. But recently, the U.N. Secretary General referred the border dispute issue to the International Court of Justice, which may issue a binding decision on the matter within the next several years. According to the O Antagonista report, Brazil's information claims that the Venezuelan government is considering siezing that territory. On Feb. 8, the Brazilian ministers visited their country's Roraima state, an area bordering Guyana and Venezuela that has seen tens of thousands of Venezuelan refugees pour across the border in recent months as unrest in the country grows.

-snip-

https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/would-venezuela-invade-guyana

Backstory: Venezuela and Guyana have had a long history of this border dispute, that has gone back long before either country was independent. However, in 1895 it was resolved via arbitration. Venezuela (and the United States!) lost an international decision on this border to Guyana (Britain), BUT, the Monroe Doctrine was maintained. A win-win for international diplomacy.

However, Venezuela has always "aspired" for more lands, and with the US backing (in the remote past), has laid claim to almost all of Guyana (and parts of Brazil, though it dares not screw around with much bigger, stronger Brazil!) THE PROBLEM? Guyana is small, relatively underpopulated country, and the area in question has oil deposits. VENEZUELA CANNOT ALLOW THIS SMALL NATION TO HAVE A LOT OF OIL, as it hurts Venezuelan oil hegemony in the region.

Now you know...

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