and get the Adjustment Act without proving anything about political persecution.

The community in Florida has got to be split on this with younger Cubans wanting this to continue and older Cubans not liking the more liberal new arrivals.

What will the US do then?

But we can't go there!

It's funny but I guess in the end Cuba will basically be a part of the United States. Separate but united. There's almost no other way this is going to work because so many Cubans are already in the US and more are packing after that announcement.

They can't just deny people the B2 Visa. We give out almost 5 million a year. Miami special interests have relied on the fact that Cuba uses the "exit visa" (the only country in the world who forbids their people from leaving the country without having the requisite papers which are very hard to get). Without it then Cubans may apply for a B2, handedly get it, come to Miami for a weekend, and go back home without fear of recrimination.

I mentioned boats because they'd be a lucrative business and they'd be pretty cheap compared to planes. There's not really a void for planes to Cuba but there certainly is a void with boats to Cuba. If I was a businessman I'd be looking in to opening up a 4 hour ferry to Cuba, with entertainment and all. Hell, a Visa isn't even necessary if the people stay on the boat. It's not my fault if they hop off and swim ashore for 10 minutes to qualify for wet-foot / dry-foot!

are not allowed to enter the USA.

no they don't since they can stay in the USA. They would give them out to people over 60 for a while but even then hold them back if they thought the person was at all connected to the government.

33% get refused, the rest get approved.

The problem is simply that most people with a white card are not regular people. They work long and hard to get permission to leave. Thus the change in policy.

but were rejected with no explanation, and everyone knew that they'd let you go if you had an anchor that would mean you'd return.

Just use your logic. If they gave those visas out every family member in Miami would get one arranged for their relatives and then the person would get the Adjustment act... instead Cubans with family had to wait up to five years and go through a lot with others in line to reunite with family. It's always been arduous, obviously.

That is a basis for the wet-foot / dry-foot policy. You no longer are a Cuban citizen.

Under this new method you retain citizenship for up to two years (before you're considered an emigrant). Come back and visit and you can leave again. This is similar to how Canada is set up (though in Canada it's 5 years before you lose your rights).

So there could be precedent for actually denying citizenship and it would force people coming to the US to actually prove that they're persecuted in Cuba as opposed to simply saying "I'm Cuban, give me citizenship."

legally, how does a US naturalized citizen born in Europe manage to keep their passport from Europe and even use it to travel. Cuba knows people acquire other nationalities but to them you're always Cuban, unless you've taken strict steps to formally renouce and even then I think you must have your Cuban passport on entry, even if you renounce if you were born there you can rehabilitate (spanish term in english)

We'll see when Yoani tries to get her passport stamped if she's allowed to leave.

It'll be fun times.

It'd be a massive blow to the Miami special interests.

Shots fired.

Younger ones with family on the island not so much

for maintaining the embargo. If Cubans can come and go as they please now...the place isn't going to be that much of a police state.

and there is plenty on the line. Many are not going to be happy with an influx of Cubans coming in via Mexico, etc. There is really no reason NOT to come to the USA. If I was Cuba I'd do it immediately before they end the Adjustment Act. There is no down side, you can keep your property and citizenship in Cuba and go back without a problem.

This is a sacrifice for Cuba because they'll lose more of their young people. It's an aging population. They had to do this but it's not like the right wing says just a way to make money from remittances.

No country lets its scientists leave easily if it can help it.

Look at what would happen if a U.S. scientist tried to move to Cuba.

We don't give criminals passports, either. A country should be allowed to choose who gets a passport.

They just criminalize talent, basically.

A US doctor or teacher or, yes, even a scientist can move to almost any country that they want (that isn't named an enemy of the US). Now a nuclear weapons scientist or something, you have a point. But that's a completely different ballpark, and as long as state secrets were kept that way they would be fine moving to almost any country. It's not the act of leaving that is illegal it's the act of sharing state secrets or technology.

Things like visas for scientists are a minor detail and can be worked out quietly later. What matters more is letting the Cuban people breathe a little easier and letting our country's foreign policy be freed from the death of the old Miami exiles, the ones who are still obsessed with undoing history.

Perhaps we could pay a deposit for every Cuban scientist who leaves, or offer to temporarily exchange a U.S. scientist for that Cuban scientist.

In anti-Castro right wing circles they hate this because they consider it like the Mariel Boatlift.

I think it's brilliant.

...does that mean they think everybody who still lives in Cuba is a criminal?

They think that the government is doing it to get rid of those people who aren't supporters of the government to avoid them having a Cuban Spring or whatever.

I think Cuba is doing it because it knows if it does then the US will have to change the wet-foot / dry-foot policy.

I'm not sure why they'd really care about wet foot dry foot at this late date, no one is making political points.

Anyone who is going to try a Cuban Spring wants to stay there to foment, the handful of them, Cubans aren't into any kind of violence and the dissendents are not effective or well organized, except by the USA when they can funnel money that's not otherwise spent with corruption by right wing Cuban Americans with their hand in teh USAID till

Cuba has arrested almost 1000 more people for "anti-social behavior" in 2012 than they did at this same time in 2011.

Babastro Enrique got arrested and sentence to a year for simply calling Raul a terrorist.

This is unsustainable.

I think you are right that they are indeed doing it to follow their peoples wishes but the people have wished for this for a long time, I think it is a strategy to help bring the embargo down.

Cuba is doing what they have to do because it's very popular with their people to get rid of the white card and related expense for travel, along with other restrictions.

They're reforming essentially.

You think they liked that they couldn't leave their country all this time?

No there's more to it than just "listening to the Cuban people."

Not even two years ago.

It also led to privatization and the reduction of the public sector. The ability to sell (and rent) homes. It was a pretty shocking thing at the time. No one expected Raul to go that route. The travel restriction fixes are still shocking because, despite what the government thinks, it will lead to its downfall.

What will happen to make it fall and who will take over?

You sound way to sure without any backup of your statement.

I don't see any reason for it to fall. Unless there is something from within and that is not easy to mount. The Cubans don't like change that much so popular support is a problem and will be willing to get themselves killed over it. There's always the Miami factor to consider, they may get themselves killed because they're so dumb.

Homes were already being traded with money under the table so it's not a big thing that the government legalized it by the way. They are still strict about who owns property and foreigners can't get in on home sales. The white card travel issue began or was pushed to the forefront by something that happened. You can google to find it.

Much of the 6th Congress was a response to the Varela Project, and many of the reforms were directly demanded by the Varela Project.

So what will bring the government down?

Free and open elections in which candidates can be chosen and "anti-social" speech is accepted.

A guy just got over a year in jail for saying the Castros were terrorists.

A year in jail.

Lupe Fiasco calls Obama a terrorist and is celebrated.

It's unsustainable. The Cuban youth are chastised by The Party for being into western consumerism. They are not going to continue the "project." It's only a matter of time. Rual is out of touch. He needs to embrace the consumerism he chastises.

I give it 10 years, guaranteed. The question is whether or not a lot of Cubans will leave the island once the travel restrictions are up. If they are the Miami mafia will do its damnedest to keep them here rather than return. If enough return take back the message of the western lifestyle then things will get interesting quick. The Cuban Spring will happen in that event.

As I pointed out, the arrests and detentions are skyrocketing. Give them internet. See what happens then.

Most of the time these are detentions so they can't foment disorder etc.

Well saying 10 years is not very risky, of course it will change. I think they'll hold on to much of what they have and won't allow the Miami Cubans access to their political process. I think the youth agrees with that.

That guy who went to prison -- There is one rule in Cuba you don't break, that is to trash the revolution, anyone who does it knows what will happen so whatever on that. Doing that is a way to gain some credibility as a dissident but that is often done for USAID money as you know, so who knows.

In your mind you have some cold war fantasy but the truth is they are extreme nationalists for a reason. That won't go away and in that sense there will be continutity. If the US doesn't wake up it will be China, and certainly Brazil that will be primary to Cuba. What a shame, then again maybe it's better that way since there is always a sick tone when the US has to confront how they've damaged the Cuban people for over 50 years, as an American citizen I'm ashamed of that history and the USA needs to apologize and make amends.

The Cubans in Miami aren't going to control the Cubans from the island. The Miami area is going to go Democratic and they will lose their grip to intimidate. All this ideology will give way to what is practical but that doesn't include US style elections and the chance of being undermined by the right wing of the US. Ain't going to happen.

Why are detentions going up if they are ultra nationalist and support the revolution?

Do you support the detention of occupiers so they can't "foment disorder etc"?

from Cuba. They don't explain why.

I don't believe it.

was a mess because so many Cuban academics were denied Visas.

until after Fidel is no longer around.

The change with the white card is huge and will force a change in US policy for example