Economy
Related: About this forumWhy the Social Security Trust Fund is less solid than you think.
There's a great article about Social Security and the Trust Fund by Digby over at Hullabaloo:
http://digbysblog.blogspot.com/2013/03/lets-start-chain-email-shall-we.html
Which includes this quote from Krugman:
"We've just run aground right there," Krugman noted. "Your facts are false. The Social Security thing -- Social Security, it has a dedicated revenue base, it has a trust fund based on that dedicated revenue base. You can't change the rules midstream and say, 'Oh well, suddenly the trust fund doesn't count.'"
As well as a link to an article by Dean Baker.
I happen to think the arguments re the integrity of the Trust Fund are impeccable, but for one flaw: it is going to be difficult for the Trust Fund to redeem Treasury bonds when when the time comes, because rich and powerful people don't want it to.
Doctor_J
(36,392 posts)The only thing that can sink SS is willful sabotage.
ashling
(25,771 posts)which is pretty much what the GOP has in mind for the whole economy
mother earth
(6,002 posts)Doctor_J
(36,392 posts)Quick, efficient, and filled with right-wing euphamisms.
Warren Stupidity
(48,181 posts)1. raise the FICA taxes on the boomer generation to "solve" the funding "problem".
2. create huge surpluses for 30 years, account for those surpluses with "special" t-bills.
3. 30 years later bullshit the boomer generation into agreeing to not pay them back their hard earned interest bearing t-bill surplus.
For extra credit: totally bullshit everyone into privatizing SS so that wall street can churn 150 million individual accounts for profit and plunder.
House of Roberts
(5,180 posts)Dated August 2, 2001, I kept the article from my local paper. This is as close to my copy as exists on the internet.
[link:http://community.seattletimes.nwsource.com/archive/?date=20010802&slug=socsec02|
Warren Stupidity
(48,181 posts)I'll go with Plan A: pay me my fucking money back that you think you own. Thanks.
House of Roberts
(5,180 posts)Your assertion in 3) was spot on. They intend to convince us that because our money is 'gone', we shouldn't expect it to be paid back.
The problem with that theory is, it can be applied to any debt the US owes. Since we spent the money loaned to us, it's just gone. Once they try to claim that, however, demand for US Treasuries should drop to zero overnight. After all, if we won't pay back our own citizens, what chance does China or a sovereign wealth fund have of getting their money back?
Demeter
(85,373 posts)I'm sure most of the rich don't want to die, either, but they have as much ability to avoid death as they do losing wealth by paying taxes....it will happen, one way or another.
jeff47
(26,549 posts)Those rich and powerful people rely on the Treasury being able to sell US debt.
Refusing to redeem the "Trust Fund" T-bills is exactly the same as refusing to redeem the T-bills sold on the open market. Leading to a collapse of the wealth and power of those same rich and powerful people.
Jerry442
(1,265 posts)They'll just cause SS to keep rolling over the ones they hold and not take the cash, because they're, you, know, nothing but IOUs and the money's already spent and we don't want to drive up the deficit and hurt job creators and all that.
jeff47
(26,549 posts)Because if the Treasury can do that to the Trust Fund's T-bills, they can do that to anyone's T-bills. Which means all our bonds are suddenly junk bonds.
They have a name for the "nothing but IOUs" people. Morons.
Warren Stupidity
(48,181 posts)Just so. No pall cast across the other t-bills that pay out normally.
jeff47
(26,549 posts)They've got the same "full faith and credit" as the 'regular' ones.
Jerry442
(1,265 posts)It will be the SSA "voluntarily" rolling them over into new T-bills, while at the same time cutting SS payouts to retirees. Treasury's hands will stay clean and our T-bills won't lose any love in the financial markets.
Warren Stupidity
(48,181 posts)FogerRox
(13,211 posts)U R right jeff47, 100%.
mbperrin
(7,672 posts)They're the most desirable note in the world, hence the awful return. Considered to have zero risk.
Every week, about $540 billion or so are redeemed, re-issued, or created anew.
Social Security will be redeeming about $12 billion per week or so for the next 35-40 years, so you can see that it's not a large piece of the routine business of Treasury - less than 3% of volume.
The people trying to panic us, of course, are the sellers of private securities - if they can talk us into switching the $2.6 trillion in the Trust Fund to private hands, the first commission alone would be worth in excess of $150 BILLION dollars.
About $24 trillion annually passes through the auctions of the Fed. The whole $2.6 trillion at once would not be terribly remarkable, but the real $500 billion or so annually is a gnat's ass.
FogerRox
(13,211 posts)is about a 130 billion a year, something like .7% of GDP. And thats a worst case scenario.
FogerRox
(13,211 posts)Dean Baker in 1998 and it still holds true
Social Security projections are based on extremely pessimistic economic assumptions: that growth will average just 1.8 percent over the next twenty years, a lower rate than in any comparable period in U.S. history; that growth will slow even further in later years, until the rate is less than half the 2.6 percent of the past twenty years; that there will be no increase in immigration even when the economy experiences a labor shortage because of the retirement of the Baby Boom generation; and that this labor shortage will not lead to a rapid growth in wages. Both possibilities excluded in these projections -- increased immigration and rapid wage growth -- would increase the fund's revenues. These projections are genuinely a worst-case scenario.
http://www.theatlantic.com/past/issues/98jul/socsec.htm
In fact the job of an actuary is to provide a conservative financial projection.