http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/04/16/uk-britain-jobs-idUKBREA3F0FO20140416

(Reuters) - Britain's unemployment rate fell more than expected and pay growth caught up with inflation for the first time in nearly four years.

Sterling jumped and government debt prices fell after official statistics showed the unemployment rate sank to a five-year low of 6.9 percent in the three months to February, down from 7.2 percent in the three months to January.

That was below the 7 percent level originally set by the Bank of England for considering an increase in interest rates. The Bank has since given fresh guidance about when it might start to tighten monetary conditions.

Economists in a Reuters poll had expected the unemployment rate to slow only to 7.1 percent.

It will take more time and courage than I've got right now to post anything more serious. Be seeing you!

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/04/16/uk-iran-nuclear-idUKBREA3F00C20140416

(Reuters) - Iran expects to get a fifth instalment this week of previously blocked overseas funds, a senior official was quoted as saying, a payment that would confirm Iranian compliance with a landmark deal with world powers to curb its nuclear programme.

Under last year's interim agreement that took effect on January 20, Iran will receive a total of $4.2 billion (2.5 billion pounds) of such funds in eight payments over six months, if it lives up to its part of the accord aimed at allaying fears about its atomic aims.

It says it has already received four transfers in February and March, totalling some $2.1 billion. A fifth payment of $450 million was due on April 15, contingent on Iran having diluted half of its most sensitive stockpile of nuclear materials. Diplomats say Iran is meeting its commitments under the accord.

Deputy Foreign Minister Majid Takht-Ravanchi told the official IRNA news agency on Tuesday that the latest instalment "was to be freed today", without giving details. Takht-Ravanchi is a senior member of Iran's nuclear negotiating team. The English-language IRNA report was dated April 16.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/04/16/uk-eurozone-economy-inflation-idUKBREA3F0GQ20140416

(Reuters) - A shock drop in March euro zone inflation to its lowest level since November 2009 was confirmed on Wednesday, keeping pressure on the European Central Bank to intervene should prices not rebound.

The year-on-year inflation rate in the 18 countries sharing the euro was 0.5 percent in March against 0.7 percent in February, the European Union's statistics office Eurostat said.

The biggest rise in prices was observed for tobacco, restaurants and bars as well as milk, cheese and eggs, while lower prices were recorded for heating oil, telecommunications and fuel.

There was a stark disparity across the eurozone with countries such as Greece (-1.5 pct) and Cyprus (-0.9 pct) seeing their prices fall compared to last year.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/04/16/uk-ireland-property-listing-idUKBREA3F0NL20140416

(Reuters) - Irish Residential Property REIT (IRPR) (IRES.I) raised 200 million euros (164 million pounds) in a stock market listing, meeting its target as it became the third such real estate investment trust to launch in Ireland in the last year.

It follows Green REIT (GN1.I) and Hibernia REIT (HBRN.I) to the Irish market after the government made changes to permit the establishment of REITs, which allow investors to own property via a company rather than being direct landlords.

Irish property prices are rising again, after plunging by around 50 percent when a credit-fuelled real estate bubble burst, wreaking havoc on the country's banks and pushing the country into an EU/IMF bailout, which it exited last year.

U.S. asset manager Franklin Templeton, which made one of the canniest trades in Europe's debt crisis in buying Irish debt before the country started to recover, made a cornerstone investment in IRPR, it said in a statement on Wednesday.

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-27045527

China's economy expanded by 7.4% in the first quarter of the year, better than what many were expecting.

But it is a slowdown from 7.7% growth in the final quarter of last year.

Other data released with the gross domestic product (GDP) figure showed industrial output rising 8.8% in March from one year ago.

Retail sales for the month of March spiked by 12.2%, underscoring China's efforts to boost economic growth via domestic consumption.

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-27045500

The US has told China its currency must be allowed to rise if it and the global economy are to see stable growth.

The US Treasury's twice-yearly report to policymakers says the yuan is "significantly undervalued".

Unlike the euro and the dollar, the value of the yuan is not set by the market but is kept within certain limits of other world currencies.

The US has long argued that the bands are set too low, making Chinese goods cheaper on the world market.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-27048036

The Scottish economy grew by 0.2% in the final three months of 2013 compared with growth of 0.7% in the UK, according to official figures.

Scottish growth was affected by a sharp fall in production at the Grangemouth petrochemicals complex following an industrial dispute.

Output in petrochemicals fell by 10.8% but other sectors such as textiles and food also shrank.

On an annual basis, GDP grew by 1.7% compared to the fourth quarter of 2012.

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-27046285


Communities in sub-Saharan Africa are being "hurt" by high fees charged by money transfer operators, charity Comic Relief has said.

Restricted competition has helped push up charges, according to research by the Overseas Development Institute (ODI).

Money transfer company Western Union said that fees were set according to factors such as local taxes.

The company "delivered much-needed services to individuals", it added.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2014/04/15/inenglish/1397566173_781792.html

The arguments bandied about by the government that Spain’s economy is on its way to recovery are in stark contrast to the statistics that are regularly released by Brussels. Figures published on Tuesday by Eurostat, for example, reveal that the top-five regions in the European Union in terms of unemployment rate are all Spanish, an unprecedented result since the statistical series began.

The top spots on the list are occupied by Andalusia (which closed 2013 with an unemployment rate of 36.3%), Ceuta (35.6%), Melilla (34.4%), the Canary Islands (34.1%) and Extremadura (33.7%). Further down the list there are more Spanish regions to be found, with Castilla-La Mancha in seventh place (30.1%) and Murcia ninth (34.4%). West Macedonia and Central Macedonia (Greece) occupy the sixth and eighth spots, respectively, with 31.8% and 30.0%, while the French region of Reunión comes in 10th, with a 28.9% unemployment rate.

Meanwhile, one Czech, two Austrian and six German regions boast the lowest unemployment rates in the EU.

With 26.03% of the active population without a job, Spain is the second-worst country in the EU in terms of unemployment, with only Greece posting a higher figure (27.5%).

http://elpais.com/elpais/2014/04/15/inenglish/1397578233_577138.html

The European Union has poured cold water over Catalan nationalists’ latest claims that an independent Catalonia would retain European membership.

Just one day after a committee of advisors told Catalan premier Artur Mas that Brussels would allow a sovereign Catalonia back into the union — if it was ever expelled at all — the European Commission reiterated on Tuesday that a declaration of independence would automatically leave the region out of the EU.

“A new state would become, by dint of its independence, a third country with respect to the EU and the Treaties of the Union would not apply from day one of its independence,” said an EU spokesman. “The Commission has been saying for months, and even years, that it will not be neutral with respect to the Treaties in the event of scenarios such as the separation of part of a member state or the creation of a new state.”

Getting out of the EU would be like escaping from Sun Myung Moon's Unification cult.

So kind. So generous.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2014/04/14/inenglish/1397487159_547189.html


King Juan Carlos on Monday told a group of political and business leaders in the United Arab Emirates that Spain is no longer being dragged down by the recession.

Leading a delegation of Spanish businessmen in search of investment opportunities, the king thanked Arab leaders for not losing faith in Spain’s economy.

“Our country has suffered from a crisis caused by painful job losses. But today we have emerged from the recession, foreign capital is returning to Spain with strength, and the Spanish economy is again growing and creating jobs,” the monarch said during the first Spanish-Arab Emirates business meeting to be held in Abu Dhabi.

Spanish companies have signed important defense, infrastructure and utility contracts in UAE, and now other firms are looking for similar opportunities, the king said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-16/tight-job-market-in-u-s-cities-prompts-higher-pay.html

To hire 10 to 15 project coordinators this year, Sabre Commercial Inc. has boosted pay 10 percent and added a 401(k) retirement plan.

“It is an employee’s market,” said John Cyrier, co-founder and president of the 48-employee Austin, Texas-based builder. “We are definitely seeing a labor shortage in Austin and central Texas. I see it only getting worse.”

Companies across the U.S. from Texas to Virginia and Nebraska are struggling to fill positions with metropolitan jobless rates below the 5.2 percent to 5.6 percent level the Federal Reserve regards as full employment nationally. Competition for workers is prompting businesses to raise wages, increase hours for current employees, add benefits and recruit from other regions.

“There are spot labor shortages” that probably will “broaden out over the next year as the job market steadily improves,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics Inc. in West Chester, Pennsylvania.

no offense, AnneD.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-16/gold-extends-decline-on-prospects-for-further-tapering-by-fed.html

Gold traded above the lowest price in more than a week in New York as investors weighed turmoil over Ukraine against the outlook for an improving U.S. economy.

Gold fell 2 percent yesterday, the most since December, as data indicated U.S. consumer prices accelerated in March. A report released this week showed retail sales increased more in March than economists forecast. The metal slid the most since 1981 last year on the outlook for reduced U.S. stimulus.

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will address the Economic Club of New York today. She said in March borrowing costs may start to rise “around six months” after the conclusion of asset buying, which economists forecast will end this year. Since then, minutes of the Fed’s last meeting played down forecasts for higher interest rates. Gold rebounded 8.4 percent this year as the Ukraine crisis spurred haven demand.

“U.S. macro numbers continue to improve, cementing the case for gradual” tapering of stimulus, Andrey Kryuchenkov, an analyst at VTB Capital in London, wrote today in a report. “The volatile situation in Ukraine is still distorting global markets, with some nervous investors opting for bullion’s safety.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-16/builders-began-work-on-fewer-homes-than-forecast-in-march.html

The pace of U.S. home construction rebounded less than forecast in March, held back by declines in warmer parts of the country that indicate the recovery in residential building will be slow to develop.

Housing starts climbed 2.8 percent to a 946,000 annualized rate following February’s 920,000 pace, which was higher than previously reported, Commerce Department data showed today in Washington. The median estimate of 78 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for an increase to 970,000. Permits for future projects declined.

While warm weather and the onset of the spring selling season boosted housing activity in the Northeast and Midwest, the industry’s recovery has been challenged by higher interest rates, slow wage growth and tight credit, which have put homeownership out of reach for some would-be buyers. Bigger gains in employment are necessary to overcome declining affordability.

“Housing will contribute positively to GDP this year, but not by nearly as much as in 2012 and 2013,” said Dana Saporta, director of U.S. economics research at Credit Suisse in New York, who projected a 945,000 pace and the second-most accurate forecaster for starts over the past two years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. “We are seeing continued improvement in housing starts, but at a slower pace.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-16/italian-banks-seen-selling-about-69-billion-of-bad-loans.html

Prelios SpA (PRS), the Italian asset manager studying a merger of two units with those of Fortress Investment Group LLC (FIG), said it expects Italian banks to sell as much as 50 billion euros ($69 billion) of bad loans in the next two-to-three years.

Italian banks are sitting on 160 billion euros of non-performing loans, a figure that will swell to 200 billion euros in the next two years as Italy emerges from recession, according to Riccardo Serrini, chief executive officer of Prelios Credit Servicing SpA, a unit of Milan-based Prelios.

“We’re currently assisting investors bidding for 10.9 billion euros of NPLs,” Serrini said in an interview in his office in Milan. “Ninety-five percent of investors are from the U.S. and about 70 percent of the loans are secured by real estate.”

U.S. investors, including some without a presence in Italy, are making up for the shortfall of Italian funds that can absorb the planned disposals, Serrini said. Italian banks, which have so far resisted distressed-debt sales, are now accelerating plans to shed bad debt, which has reached record levels. They are considering pooling bad loans into separate units, or bad banks, in an attempt to free capital and increase lending capacity, as well as selling loans.

and fight to keep it inflated until closing....

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-16/stumbling-s-p-500-reaches-worst-stretch-of-election-cycle.html

The political calendar is working against investors.

Already hit by concerns valuations are too high just as the Federal Reserve withdraws stimulus, the equity market is entering what has historically been the worst period of the presidential cycle, the stretch before midterm elections. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has lost 2.5 percent and 0.3 percent on average in the second and third quarters of years like this one, according to data compiled by S&P Capital IQ and Bloomberg. Stocks in the benchmark gauge are about one percentage point away from matching such a loss after posting the biggest weekly slide since 2012.

While the pattern may be coincidental, it makes sense to Malcolm Polley of Stewart Capital Advisors LLC, who says uncertainty comes to a head as the president’s policies are debated. It’s being exacerbated in 2014 after winter weather made it impossible to tell whether gross domestic product is stagnating and investors speculated how soon Fed policy makers will tighten, he said.

“The economic picture is cloudy, the interest rate picture is cloudy, the valuation picture is cloudy,” Polley, who helps oversee $1.2 billion as president and chief investment officer of Stewart Capital in Indiana, Pennsylvania, said in an April 7 telephone interview. “Couple that with what I call the political silly season. You’ve really got a recipe for a difficult market.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-16/that-pesky-indicator-still-saying-u-s-stocks-are-cheap.html

It seems like for every doom-and-gloomer saying the U.S. stock market is headed for a 2000-style bubble burst, there’s an optimist behind them saying, “That’s nonsense -- and can I interest you in a flier on an IPO for an unprofitable Internet company?”

There is one old-fashioned measure of valuation that rarely creeps into the conversation, and when it does it creates a heated debate over its significance. The Rule of 20 states simply that valuations are fair when the sum of a price-to-earnings ratio and the rate of inflation is equal to 20.

The rule, which is said to have been embraced by old-school investors like legendary market-beating stock picker Peter Lynch, highlights how corporate earnings become more valuable to investors amid periods of low inflation and, ergo, low interest rates.

The controversy crops up in how you calculate it, and how to base investment choices on it. The problem is the variables - - price, earnings, and inflation. Price is fine: The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index closed yesterday at 1,842.98 and even if you believe the benchmark should be at 10,000 or 1,000, you can’t argue otherwise.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-16/industrial-production-in-u-s-rose-more-than-forecast-in-march.html

Gains in manufacturing are helping power the U.S. out of the winter doldrums, while homebuilding shows signs of lagging behind.

Factory production climbed 0.5 percent in March after a revised 1.4 percent surge in February that marked the biggest gain in almost four years, figures from the Federal Reserve showed today in Washington. Housing starts rose 2.8 percent to a 946,000 annualized rate last month, falling short of the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg, according to Commerce Department data.

Assembly lines are accelerating as retailers restock inventory after American consumers, braced by gains in hiring, return to shopping malls and auto dealerships following unusually cold temperatures at the start of the year. The housing industry has been challenged by rising mortgage rates, still-tight credit and a lack of available land, which means additional strength will be slow to develop.

“There’s a lot of pent-up demand among consumers and businesses, and factories have to produce those goods,” said Joseph LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. in New York. “Housing is still in recovery mode. We have a long way to go before we get to expansion in this sector.”