What Happens Next According To Deutsche Bank (Greece)

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-05/no-victory-appears-probable-what-happens-next-according-deutsche-bank

In this document DB, which is one of the banks that may stand to lose the most from any major stresses to Europe's precarious status quo as a result of its tens of trillions of notional derivatives, lays out the possible post-referendum scenarios.

Here is how the German megabank sees the possible outcomes of what is shaping up to be a "No" vote:
•N1 – Soft deal: The most unlikely scenario is that the euro-area partners offer a much softer programme to Greece.
•N2 – Default-and-stay: Moderately less unlikely is a scenario where Greece defaults but stays in the euro thanks to a direct recapitalisation of Greek banks by the euro-area partners, with the Greek government using only domestic resources for the country’s fiscal needs.
•N3 – New deal: The third scenario is one in which the rising economic and political cost of a closed banking system results in the Syriza government being replaced by a new government of national unity and a new deal with creditors being reached.
•N4 – Grexit: In our view, Grexit and Scenario N3 are the most likely – with about equal probabilities. That said, we see the probability of Grexit increasing the larger is the margin of victory of the NO vote. Even with a NO vote, the cumulative probability of the first three scenarios still exceeds that of Grexit.

(details on the 4 possibilities at link)