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marmar

(77,085 posts)
Tue Oct 20, 2015, 07:45 AM Oct 2015

We’re Flirting With Another Recession


We’re Flirting With Another Recession
by Harry Dent • October 19, 2015

[font size="3"]Meaning, it might already be here.[/font]

Back in May, we were about to go to the printer with the June issue of Boom & Bust when I put on the brakes. My team wasn’t happy to hear it since these things take time to put together. But I didn’t have a choice. I had found compelling evidence to suggest that we were not just looking at another recession, but already possibly back in one.

So, we took a close look at how we’d been flirting with recession over the first half of the year, while economists kept spouting that we had reached escape velocity. Now, after a bit of reprieve during the summer, it looks to be happening again.

We recently got the worst nonfarm payroll jobs report in months as only 142,000 jobs were created last month, with August revised almost 40,000 jobs lower. Plus, labor force participation hit a new low at 62.4%. Overall, we’ve averaged 198,000 jobs per month in 2015, compared with 260,000 jobs in 2014.

For this reason and others, I have reason to believe we’re once again falling into a recession.

What makes the jobs report so concerning is that it’s a lagging indicator – meaning, it’s following a particular trend that’s already started. It supports the possibility that recession is already here. ............(more)

http://wolfstreet.com/2015/10/19/were-flirting-with-another-recession/




7 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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We’re Flirting With Another Recession (Original Post) marmar Oct 2015 OP
Time for Republicans to start shilling for trickle down magic economics.... Human101948 Oct 2015 #1
No expert here, but safeinOhio Oct 2015 #2
Problem is, the structural issues from the last crisis were never fixed. marmar Oct 2015 #3
I agree for the most part. That is why I'm safeinOhio Oct 2015 #4
the article is not about the stock market. it's about the economy. magical thyme Oct 2015 #5
Maybe but elleng Oct 2015 #6
I didn't think we ever got out of the previous recession DemReadingDU Oct 2015 #7
 

Human101948

(3,457 posts)
1. Time for Republicans to start shilling for trickle down magic economics....
Tue Oct 20, 2015, 07:53 AM
Oct 2015

And if we have a real recession the yahoos will eat it up like ice cream!

safeinOhio

(32,709 posts)
2. No expert here, but
Tue Oct 20, 2015, 07:54 AM
Oct 2015

I don't think a correction is any more than a short term problem. In the long term I see a better economy..I am counting on Democrats winning in 2016 as we always do better when they do.

I've been invested in the market since 1982 and survived all the down turns with out panic and my investments have always come back better and growing in the long term.

Those that sell on fear, sell low and then end up buying back in when the market has gone up.

marmar

(77,085 posts)
3. Problem is, the structural issues from the last crisis were never fixed.
Tue Oct 20, 2015, 08:01 AM
Oct 2015

The next one is inevitable.


safeinOhio

(32,709 posts)
4. I agree for the most part. That is why I'm
Tue Oct 20, 2015, 08:04 AM
Oct 2015

supporting the Democratic party.

On the other hand, my investment have come back stronger than before that crash.

 

magical thyme

(14,881 posts)
5. the article is not about the stock market. it's about the economy.
Tue Oct 20, 2015, 10:09 AM
Oct 2015

Timing-wise it's dead on. I had too much healthcare per diem work in early summer, then after they totally fried me with 5 12-hour shifts an hour from home within 7 days, I settled into my normal summer schedule.

With 2 people scheduled to retire at the end of this year, and a 3rd that could retire at any time, I had every reason to believe the job was relatively safe. I had bailed them out of not one, but two, emergencies in a row. I have been regularly scheduled and very reliable for 4 years. Instead, they hired 1 1/2 people in advance and at the end of August cut my hours to zero without any warning whatsoever.

The lab manager told me that she would tell all of the techs to call me first if they needed to call-out for any reason.

I learned from the 2nd shift tech last week that instead of telling them to call me first, she denied multiple requests.

In the meantime, the lab scheduler sent me emails early in Sept and Oct saying she has "several days" for me that month. Instead, I get a single day -- the minimum required by the lab chain to maintain per diem status. She's already trying to pull the same shit with November and even December.

Each of these false hopes and subsequent blows has been like rubbing salt in the wound they inflicted, depleting my energy and derailing my personal plans.

In November, the sole day they gave me was Thanksgiving. I told them I'm not available in November.

I am very unhappily working the October day I agreed to later today. I may relent and agree to work Thanksgiving, on the condition that they cease all "false hope" statements and emails. It depends on how much of my latest round of outrage at the blatant lies has subsided.

elleng

(131,028 posts)
6. Maybe but
Tue Oct 20, 2015, 11:07 AM
Oct 2015

'Democrats winning in 2016' requires more than the White House, we need Congress (as well as State houses and governorships,) without which another Dem in the WH won't mean, much, imo.

I appreciate your optimism.

DemReadingDU

(16,000 posts)
7. I didn't think we ever got out of the previous recession
Tue Oct 20, 2015, 03:51 PM
Oct 2015

Just some fancy manipulation has gone on to make stats look better than they really are.




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