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TXPaganBanker

(210 posts)
Fri Dec 21, 2018, 03:16 PM Dec 2018

Observation from a retired banker

In the 2008 market decline, the market dropped 7500 points between Oct 2007 and March 2009.

The DJIA has dropped 3200 points since Dec 3rd. (25,800 on Dec 3rd, currently 22,600). In 18 days, it has shed what took 9 months to do last crisis. This year also includes the largest one-day drop in the history of the market, 1600 points in February.

At what point should we get nervous?

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spooky3

(34,456 posts)
2. And prior to Dec., the market had lost all of its gains for the year.
Fri Dec 21, 2018, 03:19 PM
Dec 2018

The retirement trust fund managers count on a 7.5% or more annual return to fund employee benefits and individuals with 401ks count on this also. So it was ALREADY a terrible year BEFORE December began.

Squinch

(50,950 posts)
3. I got nervous back in February. I acknowledge one of the few truths that are available to humans.
Fri Dec 21, 2018, 03:21 PM
Dec 2018

It is this: Republicans will pillage the economy in the first year so the very rich can grab more than they already have. Then they allow the economy to crash, or they actively trash it.

After the February drop, I waited for a bit of a recovery and then got out entirely. Glad I did. I'm up about 5% on the year, as opposed to being down 9%

pangaia

(24,324 posts)
4. Not that this isn't cause to worry but, is the percentage decline, not the points, that matters.
Fri Dec 21, 2018, 03:30 PM
Dec 2018

That decline from Oct 2007 until Mar 2009 was about 65% give or take.
The decline from Dec 3, 2018 till now is about 14%. Not nearly as much.

Of course... that IS in less than 3 weeks. :&gt )

From 2/1/2009 until 3/1/2009 it dropped about 25%.

I'm probably just chiming in because I'm bored today with the blahs.
Don't feel like 3 hours of practice, going to the gym, or cooking for three guests tonight.

Which also means my figures could be way off..





Pobeka

(4,999 posts)
5. unrealistic comparison
Fri Dec 21, 2018, 03:31 PM
Dec 2018

The market value in 2008 was a little more than half the value at it's high this year.

So to make a fair comparison you need to think in terms of a percentage drop. i'm not going to calculate the actual number but a 3200 point drop in today's market represents about a 1600 point drop in the market of 2008. That's how I look at it...

TXPaganBanker

(210 posts)
8. Oh, I know.
Fri Dec 21, 2018, 03:48 PM
Dec 2018

In comparison, in 1929 the market dropped 68.9 points over 2 days, followed by another 190 point slide, leading to a 12 year depression.

But Trump is huge on pointing out actual point gains. "We hit 20,000! I need everyone to physically, actually pat me on the back". There are also numerous tweets talking about point drops during other presidencies. I'm just pointing out the metric he focuses on.

SWBTATTReg

(22,129 posts)
9. Thanks to all for putting out info. on drops (current and historical)...I was wondering what the ...
Fri Dec 21, 2018, 04:17 PM
Dec 2018

historical contexts of prior market drops, now I know!

Screw all of the mechanical storage devices out there in the marketplace, DU users are a storage depository of the best kind!!

 

Wellstone ruled

(34,661 posts)
7. And if we pull the five high flying Tech
Fri Dec 21, 2018, 03:37 PM
Dec 2018

stocks out the average,well the real story would even uglier.

This is what happens when Wall Street Markets a flawed product.

progree

(10,908 posts)
10. S&P 500 -- down 17.5% from the 2931 Sept 20 peak
Fri Dec 21, 2018, 05:52 PM
Dec 2018

2931   All time peak, Sept 20
2638   Correction territory (down 10% from peak ) is long behind us
2417   Today's close (down 17.5% from peak)
2345   Bear market begins at 20% down -- just 72 more points from today
2264   Last close before Inauguration Day
2198   Down 25% from peak

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history?p=%5EGSPC

We're still in the longest or one of the longest bull markets in history (beginning March 9, 2009 when the S&P 500 closed at 677) -- that officially ends when we hit 20% and officially enter a bear market.

econ 101

(6 posts)
11. To those more knowledgeable to the stock market then I
Sat Dec 22, 2018, 10:56 AM
Dec 2018

Would not a more relevant number be the change in P/E ratio in both 2008 and today? That would take out the inflation in the economy.

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