Economy

at140

(6,110 posts) Fri Feb 1, 2019, 04:29 PM Feb 2019

Payrolls increase by 304,000 in January

Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had expected payrolls to rise by 170,000.
There were revisions. December’s big initially reported gain of 312,000 was knocked all the way down to 222,000, while November’s rose from 176,000 to 196,000.
The unemployment rate ticked higher to 4 percent, a level where it had last been in June, a likely effect of the shutdown, according to the department.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/01/nonfarm-payrolls-january-2019.html

5 replies

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Payrolls increase by 304,000 in January (Original Post) at140 Feb 2019 OP

ADP reported out 207 k about a week ago. Wellstone ruled Feb 2019 #1

Can I give you my honest opinion about job numbers? at140 Feb 2019 #2

Since Trump and Crew came to power, Wellstone ruled Feb 2019 #3

Will you please explain to me why they do not use numbers reported every quarter at140 Feb 2019 #4

My experience was this, Wellstone ruled Feb 2019 #5

Wellstone ruled

(34,661 posts)

1. ADP reported out 207 k about a week ago.

Reply to at140 (Original post)

Fri Feb 1, 2019, 05:32 PM

Feb 2019

Nothing surprises me anymore. Trump bragged about juicing the numbers cause his numbers are real numbers. That statement was in Feb or March of 2017.

at140

(6,110 posts)

2. Can I give you my honest opinion about job numbers?

Reply to Wellstone ruled (Reply #1)

Fri Feb 1, 2019, 05:37 PM

Feb 2019

They are all extrapolations based on many assumptions.
Which is why they are usually revised big time.
Even in this news clip, observe the huge revision in previous months numbers.

Wellstone ruled

(34,661 posts)

3. Since Trump and Crew came to power,

Reply to at140 (Reply #2)

Fri Feb 1, 2019, 05:41 PM

Feb 2019

we knew the real hard numbers would be juiced. The last true real estimates came in January 2017,since then,the fudge factor was or is close to 100k.

Had the Midwest ADP branch as a business Customer,interesting how these numbers kind of come together.

at140

(6,110 posts)

4. Will you please explain to me why they do not use numbers reported every quarter

Reply to Wellstone ruled (Reply #3)

Fri Feb 1, 2019, 05:47 PM

Feb 2019

about how many people paid social security taxes during the quarter?
Every worker and every businessman files social taxes every quarter.
It would be the most accurate count of workers.

Wellstone ruled

(34,661 posts)

5. My experience was this,

Reply to at140 (Reply #4)

Fri Feb 1, 2019, 07:12 PM

Feb 2019

couple of the people explained that it was based on the number of Pay Checks they issue. And that is what ADP is all about,they are a contract payroll company. Again,they blend their info with other payroll companies to come up with these numbers. Remember it is the total number of paychecks issued vs.the number twelve months previous.

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