Or did the PPT just take a nap?

Last edited Wed Aug 14, 2019, 11:55 PM - Edit history (1)

specifically the 2 year Treasury note yield is now greater than the 10 year Treasury note yield. It's not supposed to be this way, the normal yield curve is the longer the maturity, the higher the yield. This hasn't happened since 2005-2007 (before the housing bubble crash/recession).

A 10 year yield falling below the 2 year yield has preceded the last 7 recessions or so by a year or two if I remember the varying stories I'm reading.

There have been inversions in recent past months, e.g. the 3 month bill having a higher yield than the 10 year note, which also precedes a lot of recesssions but IIRC it's predictive power (for predicting a recession) isn't as good as the "2-10 inversion" (2 year vs. 10 year).

Oh, also unique to today is the 30 year bond yield falling to its lowest level in history. It's just 2.06%

These inversions and long-term interest rates falling to such low levels is considered a sign of lack of faith in the long-run growth prospects of the economy.

There are some troubling news about some other economies today, but I think the yield curve inversion is considered the big story.

Trump tweeted today it's all the Federal Reserve's fault and particularly chair Jerome Powell for raising short-term interest rates (and then only reducing it (last month) once and by only a small (0.25%) amount.)

Edited to add - question everything's post in this forum today talks about the above and also the bad news from Germany and China and some news related to trade, but I think the trade stuff and 2nd quarter numbers (excepting the Germany and China numbers) is not new news today.
https://www.democraticunderground.com/111686243

Edited to add: question everything posted this from the Wall Street Journal just now (1133 PM ET 8/14). A good update of the day in one paragraph https://www.democraticunderground.com/111686248