The stock market is likely to have a significant pullback late this spring. Part of a very normal cycle of growth, and pullbacks. I'm seeing estimates of a 300-500 point drop in the major indices.

Investors and traders like these pullbacks/corrections, but it couldn't come at a worse time. Layoffs and decreases in household retirement accounts will be very scary, giving lots of ammunition to use in the election.

Buckle up.

Short of another pandemic, no. Way too much tightness in labor markets. In my area, unemployment has been essentially zero for months and months. We'd do a hell of a lot for more warm bodies but they're just not there. If economic conditions soften a bit, we just won't fill open positions we can't fill anyway.

Those affected are young voters, and they are having a very hard time getting reemployed. That also worries me a lot.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/07/layoffs-rise-to-the-highest-for-any-february-since-2009-challenger-says.html

Inflation spiked slightly in Dec. only to fall in Jan. And really, in comparison to where we've been since 2022, the recent increase is minuscule. But, for people who think the world started 2004, I guess it's a big deal. Time will tell.

I also guess I've become my dad....no inflation is as bad as the early 80's just like no cold spell was ever as bad as Belgium in '44 / '45.

North of San Antonio. Restaurants are packed and not just on the weekend. Costco parking lots look like it’s Christmas. Home prices are through the roof and new homes are going up everywhere.

People are making money and most are not worried about inflation. Oh sure, we gripe about McDonald’s and Whataburger’s high prices. The drive thrus are packed and Door Dash still delivers nightly in my neighborhood.

At my local grocery store yesterday the higher priced eggs were not selling. The grocery store brand was half the price of the more expensive eggs.

Our neighborhood successfully fought off a proposed apartment complex right across the street from us. My neighbors are more concerned about Summer plans for their kids right now. Politics and the economy are not the first items folks are talking about here.

Are some people hurting? Yes they are. I see a lot of cars at Dollar Tree now. The Goodwill Stores near me are very busy, too. Our local food pantry does a booming business every month.

Where I work, we'd give people $25 per hour and great benefits if they'd just show up when they're supposed to. In my mind, that's what's driving this economy. There's just not enough warm bodies and we'd need a near collapse for us to have to lay off the warm bodies we currently have.

Lots of people in my neighborhood depend on military and military retiree paychecks. Also, we have a lot of medical personnel living here, too.

Our daughter is having a tough time getting people to just show up for an interview. Our granddaughter starts her first “big girl” job next week. Her starting salary and benefits are impressive. 💕

What would Trump and the Republicans do to combat inflation?? Then listen for the crickets.

When you’re the incumbent.

It doesn’t matter whether or not it’s true. They can point to inflation during the previous term and say “it sure looks like we knew “

scroll across the home page of my computer, I don't click on them and I am certainly not taking the bait here.

When the 300,000 new jobs report came out the economy was booming narrative was abounding all over, I predicted that within a week the right wing would flip the narrative, it took less than a week.

I am on a fixed income and my economy is doing just fine.

Bidenomics Baby.

Last edited Mon Apr 15, 2024, 02:46 AM - Edit history (2)

I've been seeing some mischaracterizations of the recent inflation situation, so here is a summary table followed by the graphs.

I annualize them all to be easy to compare to each other, and to compare to the FED's 2% goal. I use the actual index values rather than the one-digit changes that are commonly reported in the media. Links to the data are with the graphs.

The "1 month" number is the change from February to March, expressed as an annualized number (for the PCE it's the change from January to February; the PCE folks don't do March until near the end of April).

"Regular" is the "headline" number that has "everything"

"Core" is the regular with food and energy removed (The Fed prefers this as a basis for projecting FUTURE inflation)

3/29/24 PCE (Fed's favorite inflation measure)

REGULAR 3 month: 3.4%, REGULAR 1 month: 4.1%; CORE 3 month: 3.5%, Core 1 month: 3.2%;

REGULAR 3 month: 4.6%, REGULAR 1 month: 4.6%; CORE 3 month: 4.5%, Core 1 month: 4.4%;

REGULAR 3 month: 4.4%, REGULAR 1 month: 1.9%; CORE 3 month: 4.7%, Core 1 month: 2.5%;