New Scientist - It's 2016 And We're Already Pushing 1.5C Globally

Global surface temperatures could get close to the 1.5 °C-above-preindustrial limit before the Paris climate agreement even comes into effect. That’s alarming news, considering that the deal aspires to limit global warming to no more than this.

Last week Gavin Schmidt, head of NASA’s Goddard Institute of Space Studies, estimated that the average global temperature in 2016 could range from about 1.1 °C above preindustrial to only slightly below 1.5 °C, based on GISS’s temperature record and its definition of pre-industrial (other records and definitions vary).

EDIT

Schmidt’s rough estimate, which he posted on Twitter, is based on the extraordinary and unprecedented warming over the past 12 months, during which time global surface temperatures have shot past the 1 °C above pre-industrial level. March is the eleventh month in a row to set a record for being the warmest that a specific month has ever been.

Whether or not the calendar year 2016 comes in closer to the top or bottom of Schmidt’s estimate depends on what happens next. The expectation is that the current El Niño will give way to La Niña later this year, and La Niña has a cooling effect. So it depends how long El Niño lingers on.

EDIT

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2084835-unprecedented-global-warming-as-2016-approaches-1-5-c-mark/