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GliderGuider

(21,088 posts)
Mon Apr 25, 2016, 04:10 PM Apr 2016

Earth has reached ‘peak carbon’ (sequestration), warns Scots climate expert

We knew the planet's carbon sinks would saturate eventually.
It may have already happened a decade ago.

Earth has reached ‘peak carbon’, warns Scots climate expert

Professor James Curran, former chief executive of the Scottish Environment Protection Agency (Sepa), says analysis of global atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases suggest the planet’s ability to absorb ever-increasing emissions may have reached “peak carbon”.

“One of the things I really wanted to do when I retired from Sepa was find out if you could detect this decline in the ability of the earth to soak up carbon dioxide. And sure enough, it turns out you can,” he said.

“By doing this study in 2016, when the peak occurred about ten years ago, I found there is just enough data to show that it’s very likely there has been a peak in the earth’s ability to soak up carbon dioxide and now it’s in decline.”

The scale of this reduction in capacity can be equated to adding another emitter on the scale of China into the global inventory, he says.
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Earth has reached ‘peak carbon’ (sequestration), warns Scots climate expert (Original Post) GliderGuider Apr 2016 OP
The only question is how many will die, be displaced and how soon. Jackie Wilson Said Apr 2016 #1
And we Delphinus Apr 2016 #11
My estimate since 2007 has been 6+ billion excess deaths by 2100. GliderGuider Apr 2016 #12
Another scientist tonyt53 Apr 2016 #2
WHen things start breaking down - they better not come near my UP cabin! Peregrine Took Apr 2016 #5
They will be coming for you, and your sweet water seas yourpaljoey May 2016 #19
I overhead a young demonstator at the anti Nato march say his environmental studies Peregrine Took Apr 2016 #3
My uncle delivers firewood. One of his customers was an enviro. professor from the U of MN NickB79 Apr 2016 #6
There were a lot of us crazies around for the original Earth Day in the 1970s. dixiegrrrrl Apr 2016 #9
Same comfort here Boomer May 2016 #16
So perfectly stated, Boomer....so very well said. dixiegrrrrl May 2016 #17
That would explain the massive CO2 spikes we're now seeing from Mauna Loa NickB79 Apr 2016 #4
That's my take, too. nt GliderGuider Apr 2016 #7
Errr ... WTF? Nihil Apr 2016 #13
Another explanation might include the fact that the use of dangerous fossil fuels is increasing... NNadir May 2016 #15
Apparently we've been on a carbon plateau for two years now NickB79 May 2016 #18
Actually, over at "Think Progress" they're kind of clueless. NNadir May 2016 #20
"this reduction in capacity can be equated to adding another emitter on the scale of China": Christ! Bill USA Apr 2016 #8
Never a dull moment! hatrack Apr 2016 #10
This has been my concern for years. Gregorian May 2016 #14

Jackie Wilson Said

(4,176 posts)
1. The only question is how many will die, be displaced and how soon.
Mon Apr 25, 2016, 04:14 PM
Apr 2016

Ultimately mother earth will repair herself, by shedding us pesky humans.

 

GliderGuider

(21,088 posts)
12. My estimate since 2007 has been 6+ billion excess deaths by 2100.
Mon Apr 25, 2016, 09:55 PM
Apr 2016

Leaving a population of under 2 billion, which will still be declining. I think the dieoff will to be recognized as a dieoff by 2025.

 

tonyt53

(5,737 posts)
2. Another scientist
Mon Apr 25, 2016, 04:22 PM
Apr 2016

Wait a minute, he is just another environmental scientist, so he must be making money off of his claims. You know the deniers can tell us exactly how he can profit from climate change, but I sure can't unless he is selling air conditioners.

Peregrine Took

(7,416 posts)
3. I overhead a young demonstator at the anti Nato march say his environmental studies
Mon Apr 25, 2016, 04:24 PM
Apr 2016

professor advised the class to "get a gun and a cabin in northern Michigan/UP" if you want to try to survive. Seems that would be a viable place to 'hole up."

NickB79

(19,257 posts)
6. My uncle delivers firewood. One of his customers was an enviro. professor from the U of MN
Mon Apr 25, 2016, 04:27 PM
Apr 2016

He said the professor's place was outside the Twin Cities, off the grid, solar/wind for electric and a wood stove for heating. Lots of land for gardening.

The professor basically told him the same thing your friend heard from his professor

On edit: this was almost 10 years ago, when only the "crazies" contemplated a global collapse of civilization from climate change.

dixiegrrrrl

(60,010 posts)
9. There were a lot of us crazies around for the original Earth Day in the 1970s.
Mon Apr 25, 2016, 06:01 PM
Apr 2016

I still have the original Mother Earth News booklets....
There were plenty of far seeing people back then, using new terms like "carrying capacity" "population bomb"
Nuclear power problems were not yet part of the discussion.

Fast forward to now....and I find that not having grandchildren is comforting, as is knowing that I have less than 20 more years on this planet.
Imagine that....not being around in 20 years is actually a comforting thought.
Who coulda seen that?

Boomer

(4,168 posts)
16. Same comfort here
Sun May 29, 2016, 12:09 PM
May 2016

I don't worry about survival planning since I'm in my 60s. Even if everything starts to fall apart relatively soon, I'm not spry enough to struggle for a place in a Mad Max world. I'll leave that struggle to the young, and I suspect they won't thank me for it.

Every once in awhile, between bouts of Clinton vs. Sanders vs. Trump, I have those piercing moments of clarity: "all of this will be swept away soon." What seems to matter so much right now is only for the short term, just getting through the next few years as if business as usual will continue for the rest of this century. We know it won't, but there's no scenario for the kind of preparation that should be happening.

If I had children and especially grandchildren, I'd be urging them to get off the grid and prepare for the storm.

dixiegrrrrl

(60,010 posts)
17. So perfectly stated, Boomer....so very well said.
Sun May 29, 2016, 05:35 PM
May 2016

I have given my 2 now middle aged..( Yikes!!) sons all the information and wisdom I have, but they are not as alarmed as I am.
And there is so much I am powerless over, yet it is hard to watch the various forms of slow moving disaster heading towards us, ESP. fukishima.

You know, "they" talk about the exceedingly high percent of Americans who do not have even $2,000 on hand in case of serious emergency.
No one is talking about even larger numbers of us who do not have more than 30 day supply of vitally needed prescriptions on hand, like blood pressure or insulin meds.
a thin lifeline connects us to the actual sources of these meds, which is mostly in India now.

and those are impossible to get now, in Argentina, where all supply lines are being severed, except for the richest people there who can pay for smuggled goods.

Yet, we go on, as if it cannot happen here.

NickB79

(19,257 posts)
4. That would explain the massive CO2 spikes we're now seeing from Mauna Loa
Mon Apr 25, 2016, 04:24 PM
Apr 2016

We're currently at 407.4 ppm.

Up 4.3 ppm from this time last year, up a whopping 23 ppm from this time a decade ago: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/weekly.html

 

Nihil

(13,508 posts)
13. Errr ... WTF?
Tue Apr 26, 2016, 05:19 AM
Apr 2016

>> Week beginning on April 17, 2016: 407.42 ppm
>> Weekly value from 1 year ago: 403.18 ppm
>> Weekly value from 10 years ago: 384.79 ppm

Bugger ... I'd missed that update ...!


NNadir

(33,532 posts)
15. Another explanation might include the fact that the use of dangerous fossil fuels is increasing...
Sun May 29, 2016, 11:21 AM
May 2016

...not decreasing.

I mean, it could, possibly, just might be involved.

NickB79

(19,257 posts)
18. Apparently we've been on a carbon plateau for two years now
Mon May 30, 2016, 09:05 AM
May 2016
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2016/03/16/3760809/renewables-global-co2-flat/

Personally, I doubt that carbon emissions have truly been flat though; my WAG is that we just aren't accounting for something (like all the methane that's leaking from frack wells and pipelines), or that China and India are cooking the books (again) on their carbon emissions.

NNadir

(33,532 posts)
20. Actually, over at "Think Progress" they're kind of clueless.
Mon May 30, 2016, 04:17 PM
May 2016

They actually think that renewables are working, and that it's a good idea to throw even more money at them.

I would advise them to open science books, but I don't think they'd be interested.

There is a set of people who hear what they want to hear, and I strongly believe that the words "Think" and "Progress" being in their name is actually an abuse of language, since they only thing that they "think" about is what they want to hear, and the only "progess" they make is when they convince people to throw more money at stuff that, um, doesn't work.

The only thing that is progressing is the acceleration of the degradation of the atmosphere, and I would suggest repeating the same rhetoric year after year, decade after decade, when it clearly isn't working, is hardly "progress."

In 2015 and 2016 we are seeing unprecedented increases in carbon dioxide accumulations, and I assure you, it's not because the ocean suddenly lost all of its carbon dioxide absorption capacity instantaneously.

So called "renewable energy" is a trivial form of energy, and to announce, as they do, that it is "surging" is delusional. Two years ago, world energy demand was on the order of 550 exajoules per year, it is now at 570 exajoules and solar and wind combined have never, not once, produced 5 exajoules in a single year, this after at least of 30 years of trying, and after the expenditure of trillions of dollars and the mining of vast quantities of toxic and rare metals to support it.

As for dangerous fossil fuels "leveling off:"

The realities of tracking coal use, for one example, perhaps the most pernicious of the three dangerous fossil fuels, but only marginally worse than the other two are not found at "Thinkprogress," but in the primary scientific literature, for example, here: Uncertainties around reductions in China’s coal use and CO2 emissions.

Of course, over at "Think Progress," a bourgeois Western website, they're not sure if Chinese, Indians, or the inhabitants of poor nations even less prosperous per capita than those two giants, exist. They're members of that set who think that if enough rich Americans run out and buy Tesla electric cars while staring at pictures of wind turbines, all will be well.

All hasn't been well, all isn't well, and as long as we're looking at "Think Progress" for answers, nothing will be well.

Enjoy the rest of Memorial Day.

Gregorian

(23,867 posts)
14. This has been my concern for years.
Sun May 29, 2016, 10:00 AM
May 2016

I have posted about this, and I think people wondered what I meant when I said "sinks". I wasn't even completely sure. But it's clear now that it's the case.

I think predicting a system this complex is impossible to do with accuracy. But we have a species which has turned into a pestilence, and is so far over it's population (while burning stuff), that I fear the time is not very long before we hit hard stops. So far we've gotten a free ride via thing like ocean acidifications, rather than purely atmospheric CO2 increases.

Judging from how many are still buying the establishment/consumer mindset, this situation is only going to be solved by a few scientists, as opposed to immediate reduction in energy demand via personal responsibility, god forbid. Even the most progressive conversations I'm having exclude any concept of altering personal behavior. So far the solution is coming from incremental change, such as meat being bad. Meat, filiment lightbulbs, water, and all kinds of things are being seen as the problem. Until we can get past that, only a few will be helping to alleviate this situation.

The problem does not lie outside of our behavior. At least that's my take on immediate change. Ultimately we may end up with hoverboards. I'm not sure why we want them though.

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