Morocco May Be Next On List For Destabilization, Thanks To Drought, Crop Failure, Land Degradation

When King Mohammed VI led Friday prayer earlier this year from a mosque outside the Moroccan capital of Rabat, he made a special appeal for rain. The king pleaded for relief during the peak of a rainy season in North Africa, in which Morocco received scarce rainfall and faced severe drought. The cry for help has since become a feature of Friday prayer in mosques around Morocco, but many farmers claimed that this past autumn’s harvest was already lost.

Leaders in Rabat would prefer to avoid the potential economic consequences of the drought. In 2011, a struggling economy was one factor that drove Moroccans to protest in the streets during the Arab Spring. The Kingdom weathered the unrest, avoiding a political crisis, and has recently been promoting Morocco’s survival as a regional success story. Today, however, Morocco could be headed for another Arab Spring. The reason? Climate change.

Morocco could be the main stage of a coming climate revolution in North Africa, according to activists and scholars. Though predicting exactly when and where this scenario will unfold is difficult, a number of reports, including a 2012 study conducted by the University of Hamburg, have determined that climate change will put Morocco at high risk of conflict. Whether this means a revolution is uncertain, but observers agree that climate change will have an impact on socio-economic and political developments in Morocco for the years to come. “Injustices related to climate change will force themselves on the social and political movements of Morocco’s future,” says Hamza Hamouchene, co-author of The Coming Revolution in North Africa: The Struggle for Climate Justice.

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Meanwhile, heavy industry and manufacturing are aggravating the onset of climate change in several regions of the country, says Abir. “There is nothing more responsible for contributing to climate change in Morocco than industry.” He traces environmental risks including pollution, natural resource depletion and land degradation to national industries such as mining. The problem, however, is that mineral exports of phosphate, silver and zinc are a lucrative pillar of the economy, making up 35 percent of Morocco’s total exports and 5 percent of annual GDP. Environmental decline is only one part of the equation that could lead to instability and revolution here. By 2030, USAID expects Morocco’s population to grow by 6 million, which is sure to increase demand for energy, food, water and jobs. Today, poverty levels sit just shy of 9 percent, with nearly one-half of Moroccans between ages 15 and 35 unemployed or not enrolled in school. In a 2012 report, the World Bank estimated that the country will need to sustain optimistic economic growth rates of 7 percent to 8 percent in consecutive years if it is going to avoid deteriorating levels of poverty.

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http://www.ozy.com/fast-forward/the-forecast-in-morocco-smells-like-revolution/68045