Australian Wheat Yields Flat 2000 - 2015; Output And Rainfall Figures Track Worst-Case Climate Model

Technological advances have enabled Australian wheat farmers to offset the effects of climate change in the past 25 years; however, a reduction in yield potential over that time indicates a future risk to the $5 billion industry, CSIRO research has found.

Australia’s average wheat yields, which more than tripled between 1900 and 1990, did not increase from 1990 to 2015. The research found that during this 25-year period, the nation’s yield potential actually declined by 27%.

CSIRO team leader Dr Zvi Hochman said the study found that Australia’s wheat-growing zone had experienced an average rainfall decline of 2.8 mm or 28% per cropping season, and a maximum daily temperature increase of around 1℃ from 1990 to 2015. These observations are consistent with the higher end of future climate change projections for the wheat zone over the coming 26 years.

The findings, published in the journal Global Change Biology, indicate a risk to the future prosperity of Australia’s wheat industry, which contributes around 12% of the total wheat traded globally. Dr Hochman said despite the adverse trend in growing conditions, wheat farmers have so far managed to maintain yields at 1990 levels of around 1.74 tonnes per hectare. He said this indicated wheat farmers were making the most of developments in farming technology; however, their best efforts were merely enabling them to keep pace with the impacts of a changing climate.

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