Study: 2C Increase Will Bring "Significant Drying" To More Than 1/4 Of Earth's Land Surface

More than a quarter of Earth's land surface will become "significantly" drier even if humanity manages to limit global warming to two degrees Celsius, the goal espoused in the Paris Agreement, scientists said on Monday.

But if we contain average warming to 1.5 C (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit), this will be limited to about a tenth -- sparing two-thirds of the land projected to parch under 2 C, they concluded in a study published in Nature Climate Change.

At 1.5 C, parts of southern Europe, southern Africa, central America, coastal Australia and Southeast Asia -- areas home to more than a fifth of humanity -- "would avoid significant aridification" predicted under 2 C, said study co-author Su-Jong Jeong of the Southern University of Science and Technology in Shenzhen, China. "Accomplishing 1.5 C would be a meaningful action for reducing the likelihood of aridification and related impacts," he told AFP.

Jeong and a team used projections from several climate models, under different warming scenarios, to predict land drying patterns. Aridification is a major threat, hastening land degradation and desertification, and the loss of plants and trees crucial for absorbing Earth-warming carbon dioxide.

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https://www.afp.com/en/news/23/quarter-land-will-be-drier-under-2-c-warming-study-doc-vi8u31